Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?


dryslot

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Thursday will struggle to reach the mid 20s here ace. I'm likening us to BWI at that time.

 

 

Yeah the HP is like PDII for location except about 200-300 miles north. Its a very good spot to put New England over a great combo of cold and frontogensis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a :weenie:

 

 

 

 

 

These are the statements we need to be careful about. A foot plus minimum is a pretty high bar to set. There are a lot of potential QPF amounts on the table, but this is how we set ourselves up for disappointment.

 

 

lol, Whats your take? I have some concerns

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a :weenie:

 

 

 

 

 

These are the statements we need to be careful about. A foot plus minimum is a pretty high bar to set. There are a lot of potential QPF amounts on the table, but this is how we set ourselves up for disappointment.

 

 

And You're the bun.

 

 

Are either or both of you on at GYX for this one?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time.  I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear.  It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region. 

 

We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would think a foot + is on the table at a minimum.  Even if there is a cut back, I would be shocked it cut back to 8"

A lot has to go right to get a foot of snow.  What this storm has going for it is very high upward potential.  But a miss southeast or rain could clearly still limit snowfall.  I would put a reasonable baseline at 4", maybe 4-6" or so because every piece of guidance I've seen shows about this much.  They deliver the goods several different ways, which lends confidence to at least moderate snowfall.   I really like to see the high QPF values even without the direct coastal impact.  March 2001 can always happen though, so you can never count on snow for sure 3 days out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time. I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear. It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region.

We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled.

:weenie:

But yeah, public works will need to start prepping in a day or 2 if things hold serve. I expect a bit of a back down, but maybe not

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time.  I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear.  It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region. 

 

We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled.

High QPF event seems likely.  Recent GGEM, NCEP, and UK runs have shown fairly wet solutions (.5" - 1.5") from primarily just the northern stream.  Ensemble plumes moist as well.  The uncertainty at this point seems to be, does this become historic.  How much impact does the developing coastal low center have, and how far inland does that impact extend?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot has to go right to get a foot of snow.  What this storm has going for it is very high upward potential.  But a miss southeast or rain could clearly still limit snowfall.  I would put a reasonable baseline at 4", maybe 4-6" or so because every piece of guidance I've seen shows about this much.  They deliver the goods several different ways, which lends confidence to at least moderate snowfall.   I really like to see the high QPF values even without the direct coastal impact.  March 2001 can always happen though, so you can never count on snow for sure 3 days out. 

would you be comfortable with 4-7" or just 4-6"? 4-7" is like a 3-inch window there so maybe not exact enough, right? but then, 6" is 2" more than 4"...that's 50% more plowable snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...