Arnold214 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 He's a And You're the bun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thursday will struggle to reach the mid 20s here ace. I'm likening us to BWI at that time. Yeah the HP is like PDII for location except about 200-300 miles north. Its a very good spot to put New England over a great combo of cold and frontogensis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 he probably mis-quoted him too...just knowing how kevin translates things. Atari 2600 emulator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thursday will struggle to reach the mid 20s here ace. I'm likening us to BWI at that time. aaah, misread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 He's a These are the statements we need to be careful about. A foot plus minimum is a pretty high bar to set. There are a lot of potential QPF amounts on the table, but this is how we set ourselves up for disappointment. lol, Whats your take? I have some concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hours 90-102 on the euro are epic. ~cane force winds right along the shore...probably from the NH/MA border south to the islands...just incredible precip rates and new moon tides as well. oh new moon did not know lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How did the euro ens look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Just saw the Euro. Knew I shouldn't have let them take blood at the doc's. I'm about to pass out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 New moon is one of those intangibles that we always seen to have in these huge events. An ability to deliver that the spectator does not fully understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 He's a These are the statements we need to be careful about. A foot plus minimum is a pretty high bar to set. There are a lot of potential QPF amounts on the table, but this is how we set ourselves up for disappointment. And You're the bun. Are either or both of you on at GYX for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Are either or both of you on at GYX for this one?i start nights tonight for 5 nights, and mr oceanstweenie comes in on days to mop up my mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 i start nights tonight for 5 nights, and mr oceanstweenie comes in on days to mop up my mess. Tag team........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Noyes has awoken Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN In the world of weather, we call it "weather porn" if it excites the meteorologist, whether it's going to verify or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ensembles SE of the BM but a great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol, Whats your take? I have some concerns Well then concerns are warranted, we have less wiggle room than SNE if this tries to slip E. And we'll have the storm surrounded at GYX. Hopefully no yo-yo forecasts from Ekster and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can I just fast forward a couple of days? I am interested to see if the next GFS runs start to amp up. The winds being modelled would be sweet. One thing that Pickles mentioned is a decent temp gradient during this week (esp today) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time. I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear. It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region. We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Here is Noyes... Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN In the world of weather, we call it "weather porn" if it excites the meteorologist, whether it's going to verify or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would think a foot + is on the table at a minimum. Even if there is a cut back, I would be shocked it cut back to 8" A lot has to go right to get a foot of snow. What this storm has going for it is very high upward potential. But a miss southeast or rain could clearly still limit snowfall. I would put a reasonable baseline at 4", maybe 4-6" or so because every piece of guidance I've seen shows about this much. They deliver the goods several different ways, which lends confidence to at least moderate snowfall. I really like to see the high QPF values even without the direct coastal impact. March 2001 can always happen though, so you can never count on snow for sure 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wise man says " keep expectations low be pleasantly surprised" Good job by some to keep the expectations reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i start nights tonight for 5 nights, and mr oceanstweenie comes in on days to mop up my mess. Literally mop up your mess if the Euro keeps up with these solutions. Definitely time to start jacking up the PoP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 heres an idea where some are thinking about setting up! Eric Fisher @EricFisherTWC Get me to an airport, stat. MT: @accu_adrienne You know extreme beer fest is this weekend in Boston, right? Could there be better timing? Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 From Noyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Noyes has awoken Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN In the world of weather, we call it "weather porn" if it excites the meteorologist, whether it's going to verify or not... That is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time. I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear. It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region. We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled. But yeah, public works will need to start prepping in a day or 2 if things hold serve. I expect a bit of a back down, but maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Having the GEFS and Euro ensembles both big hits definitely increases confidence for a higher end warning snowfall. I'd keep the KU totals on ice for the time being though given we are 3-3.5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If the 0z suite continues to advertise this type of system it's literally mobilization time. I find it difficult to believe that much QPF is coming, but if it does or close to it, it will simply overwhelm public works ability to keep roads clear. It's the big one, the one that paralyzes the region. We shall see, but it's about as severe as you'll ever see modeled. High QPF event seems likely. Recent GGEM, NCEP, and UK runs have shown fairly wet solutions (.5" - 1.5") from primarily just the northern stream. Ensemble plumes moist as well. The uncertainty at this point seems to be, does this become historic. How much impact does the developing coastal low center have, and how far inland does that impact extend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A lot has to go right to get a foot of snow. What this storm has going for it is very high upward potential. But a miss southeast or rain could clearly still limit snowfall. I would put a reasonable baseline at 4", maybe 4-6" or so because every piece of guidance I've seen shows about this much. They deliver the goods several different ways, which lends confidence to at least moderate snowfall. I really like to see the high QPF values even without the direct coastal impact. March 2001 can always happen though, so you can never count on snow for sure 3 days out. would you be comfortable with 4-7" or just 4-6"? 4-7" is like a 3-inch window there so maybe not exact enough, right? but then, 6" is 2" more than 4"...that's 50% more plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 would you be comfortable with 4-7" or just 4-6"? 4-7" is like a 3-inch window there so maybe not exact enough, right? but then, 6" is 2" more than 4"...that's 50% more plowable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NCEP seems to put it about an equal chance...GGEM/UK vs the GFS/Euro THE SECOND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE (INITIALLY OVER THE PACIFIC) ISTHE MORE IMPORTANT OF THE TWO. THE NAM DEPICTION OF THIS WAVE ISVERY POOR...AS IT IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE THANTHE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THE WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ONWEDNESDAY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE IMPORTANCE OFTHIS WAVE LIES IN ITS POTENTIAL PHASING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY OFFTHE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON FRIDAY. BY THIS TIME THE NAM BECOMESA SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER AS IT ONLY DEPICTS A VERY WEAK UPPER-LEVELWAVE AND A SURFACE LOW THAT IS SEVERELY SUPPRESSED RELATIVE TO ALLOTHER GUIDANCE. THE GFS SOLUTION RESEMBLES THE ECMWF WITH THISENERGY. AS A RESULT...THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL SPIN UP A SURFACELOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THE UKMET AND CMC ARE SOMEWHATLESS INTENSE WITH THE NRN STREAM ENERGY...WHICH RESULTS IN A LATERAND SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THECONSISTENCY OF THE 12Z ECMWF WITH MAINTAINING AN EARLIERPHASING...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A STRONGER SURFACE LOW CLOSER TOTHE COAST...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS TO CARRY ABOUT EQUAL POSSIBILITYAS THE WEAKER UKMET/CMC SOLUTION. AT THIS POINT...WILL RECOMMEND ABLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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