ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yup I posted that earlier. Did the Euro have qpf amounts for that one like it does for this? No, not even close. I don't think the Euro ever had much over 1.50-1.75 in Jan 2011. This is like double that for eastern areas. Its a ludicrous run...take with some caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i don't like perfect solutions at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 You feeling it yet? I am but have my concerns as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Someone comfort me and say BWI might see a dump if you go to taco bell jay don't worry this may escape east or SE over next 36 hrs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Burbank has boarded the train. Where's Noyes? You will find out sometime after 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro overdoes precip in these events. I doubt widespread 2" amounts will verify. usually 2+ liquid is the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Get your butt up here Thursday night if tomorrow's guidance still shows this. The scar of missing stuff lasts a lifetime. I'm heading up to Conway midday Friday. Should be some snow but I'm preparing myself for a lifetime scar and irreparable emotional damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 if you go to taco bell jay don't worry this may escape east or SE over next 36 hrs . He should worry. Ever miss one at home while you were somewhere else? It's very painful. I'm feeling this kind of. Would like to see it on by 12Z tomorrow but the stability of the Euro since yesterday morning once it shifted a bit east and then the GFS/GEFS/even CMC come in suggests we're getting a big storm. Nogaps is amped up....a major flag. This one's on the way but not sure what exact form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 As bad as this is, I think that's a reasonable solution, qpf distribution wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Man this would vindicate every disaster since 2011 for ern mass. We deserve this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Forky's right though....too much lead time. Another 24 hours with this solution will make us much more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 that might be the weeniest of weeniest runs. you couldn't draw that any better for the SNE contingent...and really well up into NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Get your butt up here Thursday night if tomorrow's guidance still shows this. The scar of missing stuff lasts a lifetime. I went from Towson MD where he is to Waltham MA for Jan 2005 needless to say one of the better storms/plans I have ever seen or had! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Forky's right though....too much lead time. Another 24 hours with this solution will make us much more confident. Does this warrant a chase from NYC??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Man this would vindicate every disaster since 2011 for ern mass. We deserve this lol. Sometimes climo evens out in strange ways...this would be a magnificent way for E MA snow climo to come back to earth (from the depths, not from above) a bit for the past 2 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 start time is less then 72 hours away 0z tonight should be close enough Forky's right though....too much lead time. Another 24 hours with this solution will make us much more confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 He should worry. Ever miss one at home while you were somewhere else? It's very painful. I'm feeling this kind of. Would like to see it on by 12Z tomorrow but the stability of the Euro since yesterday morning once it shifted a bit east and then the GFS/GEFS/even CMC come in suggests we're getting a big storm. Nogaps is amped up....a major flag. This one's on the way but not sure what exact form. If i had the money for a flight or could justify driving 14 hours in a weekend I'd do it. I'd be happy for you guys either way.i can live with missing a ku but if its a 78 Redux that would hurt.luckily 1978 is still a 1/1000 chance three days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro overdoes precip in these events. I doubt widespread 2" amounts will verify. usually 2+ liquid is the jackpot. Really? Based on what empirical evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 6 runs in a row from the Euro is something that can't be ignored. Unless the model has completely gone off its rocker, we should see something. I mean seriously how bad does a model have to be to be this consistent and then be 100% wrong. I have not seen the Euro run yet, just the bits and pieces from here and twitter. But the fact that the model is putting out over 3" of qpf is incredible. Somewhere around 30"+. Even if that is wrong by half, we are still looking at a foot or better. Amazing. The fact that the GFS this morning has jumped on board with the Euro is such a confidence boost that the Euro hasn't totally lost it. All other guidance is moving towards a Euro like solution as well. Good signs. I don't think we should really be worried about this one going over our heads, the pattern really doesn't allow it to come any further west. If we were to miss the nuke solution it would be to the east. I will add that I am excited about the potential and I fully expect to add to our snow total by Saturday morning........if not doubling it. lol As my buddy said, I feel like a crack addict getting his first fix in 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thinking about roadtripping up from PHL Thursday night to witness this, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 that might be the weeniest of weeniest runs. you couldn't draw that any better for the SNE contingent...and really well up into NNE. Most of New England sees 8"+ from this, outside of northern ME via 12z Euro. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Forky's right though....too much lead time. Another 24 hours with this solution will make us much more confident. I'm pretty sure everybody would take the same track and a third of the QPF and run with it at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Really? Based on what empirical evidence? I actually thought the Euro was the opposite of amped in terms of QPF...usually it brings us back to QPF reality after a set of insane NCEP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Really? Based on what empirical evidence? Exactly. And...even if it did cut back - will it cut back 1.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 9250C gets to near Cape Cod briefly then collapses. Even there, it would flash to concrete and then wind driven bombdrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Exactly. And...even if it did cut back - will it cut back 1.5"? Easily could...the interaction is perfect between the streams on the 12z run. Even the weenie run from last night had more like 2" of qpf, not 3.5" for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If I knew this solution would verify, I'd drive from Morgantown just to witness it. I don't have class on Fridays anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Easily could...the interaction is perfect between the streams on the 12z run. Even the weenie run from last night had more like 2" of qpf, not 3.5" for E MA. Yeah I doubt we see 3.5" amounts verify, but hey, I would take 1.5" in a flash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hours 90-102 on the euro are epic. ~cane force winds right along the shore...probably from the NH/MA border south to the islands...just incredible precip rates and new moon tides as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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