joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Steady precip appears to begin 15-18z, then tapers off 12-15z SAT for KTOL. Amazing that it can drop that amount of snow in only 18-24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Weenie snow starts probably Friday morning...perhaps even predawn. The real stuff hits Friday afternoon and night. Winds down predawn Sat morning to the west but lasts most of Saturday in the east.Getting chills dude. Kind of reminds me of Jan 11 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guys relax until tomorrow. I'm telling you. Agree, Heed the warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So...I just had a class on terrorism...needless to say I wanted to kill myself and didn't hear one thing being said. Just wow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Someone comfort me and say BWI might see a dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guys relax until tomorrow. I'm telling you. I just bought my ticket. Train is leaving 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh god... I hate situations like this! I feel like a few weeks ago there were a few runs and people got excited, does this look much better then that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guys relax until tomorrow. I'm telling you. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The QPF values on the Euro are just staggering. This model is usually the most conservative when it comes to QPF out of the higher end models. One of the reasons it outscores all other guidance on QPF. It is eye-opening. But still just one run that is this obscene. We'll need to see some consistency before thinking '78 redux and reserving an extra page in the KU book. I don't understand how the Euro can have such high QPF. To get these numbers don't you need storms to be captured? aka 1969,1978 etc. How can a progressive storm give us that much precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its going to be very difficult for that in this flow. I'd worry more about an escape east. Guys relax until tomorrow. I'm telling you. Yeah, we still have 5 more Euro runs to go before the storm starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its going to be very difficult for that in this flow. I'd worry more about an escape east. If that happened it would be the biggest bust ever...from 3 feet of snow to cirrus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So...I just had a class on terrorism...needless to say I wanted to kill myself and didn't hear one thing being said. Just wow!!! Lol same in my African history class. Gonna be hard waiting til tomorrow night, restraining the pent-up weenie madness from these last 2 seasons, but still so far out in modeling time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't understand how the Euro can have such high QPF. To get these numbers don't you need storms to be captured? aka 1969,1978 etc. How can a progressive storm give us that much precip? It does get "captured"...albeit still progressive. Its basically a 24 hour storm which is longer than a normal storm but still quick for a high end KU type...the amount of subtropical/gulf moisture in it is very high which is probably causing the big QPF....but I would def be weary of those numbers since it doesn't stall out for 36-48 hours like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If that happened it would be the biggest bust ever...from 3 feet of snow to cirrus... I remember one event a few years back where the NAM went from 2-3 feet to zero, just 24 hours out. Caution should be used with specific snowfall forecasts 3 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh god... I hate situations like this! I feel like a few weeks ago there were a few runs and people got excited, does this look much better then that? This is 6 runs in a row that the Euro has showed a bomb of some sort, so snow is coming, in what amount is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Burbank has boarded the train. Where's Noyes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It does get "captured"...albeit still progressive. Its basically a 24 hour storm which is longer than a normal storm but still quick for a high end KU type...the amount of subtropical/gulf moisture in it is very high which is probably causing the big QPF....but I would def be weary of those numbers since it doesn't stall out for 36-48 hours like you said. Basic question, so delete if needed... What does it mean for it to be "captured"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the early march 01 storm spit out these qpf numbers didnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Chillax guys. Things look to be going in most of New England's favor, but it's still 72 hours out. High expectations= major disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pretty much can't getter better. Only worse. And that can be a problem around here. If the Euro tomorrow comes in with half the QPF of today's- still around 1.5- the ropes will be strung from the oak branches nevertheless. "What could have been..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Burbank has boarded the train. Where's Noyes? Noyes is in hiding after last storm where he called a big one that didn't pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Chillax guys. Things look to be going in most of New England's favor, but it's still 72 hours out. High expectations= major disappointment. I hope it is a disappointment. 12" of snow is the last thing I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Basic question, so delete if needed... What does it mean for it to be "captured"? The surface low gets tucked in right near the upper level low....usually right when that happens, there is very heavy qpf rates and the storm tends to temporarily slow even in an progressive pattern...Jan 12, 2011 has this happen and it turned a 12 hour storm into an 18-20 hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The surface low gets tucked in right near the upper level low....usually right when that happens, there is very heavy qpf rates and the storm tends to temporarily slow even in an progressive pattern...Jan 12, 2011 has this happen and it turned a 12 hour storm into an 18-20 hour storm. Wasn't there also blocking (-NAO) for that storm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It does get "captured"...albeit still progressive. Its basically a 24 hour storm which is longer than a normal storm but still quick for a high end KU type...the amount of subtropical/gulf moisture in it is very high which is probably causing the big QPF....but I would def be weary of those numbers since it doesn't stall out for 36-48 hours like you said. Exactly. If you saw that 250 wind graphic I posted a couple pages back, you can see upper level winds never come around from the east as you would see with a more traditional stall capture. Instead they are from the south, which slows the system down, but doesn't stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The surface low gets tucked in right near the upper level low....usually right when that happens, there is very heavy qpf rates and the storm tends to temporarily slow even in an progressive pattern...Jan 12, 2011 has this happen and it turned a 12 hour storm into an 18-20 hour storm.Yup I posted that earlier. Did the Euro have qpf amounts for that one like it does for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I hope it is a disappointment. 12" of snow is the last thing I want. Oh god, not this again You're place looks to be ground zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I should start more threads You feeling it yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wheres the closest cliff Get your butt up here Thursday night if tomorrow's guidance still shows this. The scar of missing stuff lasts a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The surface low gets tucked in right near the upper level low....usually right when that happens, there is very heavy qpf rates and the storm tends to temporarily slow even in an progressive pattern...Jan 12, 2011 has this happen and it turned a 12 hour storm into an 18-20 hour storm. Got it - thanks. I know people (Scooter and other mets) are saying to hold off until tomorrow, but are you honestly telling me if this started to go bad you wouldn't be disappointed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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