CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So you were naked drawing up the 0z run, how about the 12z run? (I obviously didn't think there could be a better evolution of the surface and mid levels than 0z but now 12z comes in even more impressive) Pretty much can't getter better. Only worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pretty much all of SNE is over 2"....maybe extreme western fringes at the NY border are a bit under. That kind of QPF solution gives widespread double didgits considering there will be a fluff factor in the hills, NW etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 1978 redux, literally on the 35 anniversary? lol Right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks good for all of New England sans northern ME. Schweeeet. When does it begin/end on the Euro? Been wondering the same thing myself. I'm suppose to go to NYC friday...not so sure about that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pretty much can't getter better. Only worse. You beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How sharp is the cutoff to the west? I see 3" at ORH. Are we talking 2" at the river, 1" for the Taconics? 2" contour near Greenfield...1.5" for taconics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 1/3 of the progged euro qpf and we probably exceed our cumulative 2 year total...lol. True, but I'll feel better at this time of day Wednesday if the models are still robust simply because at that point the southern s/w will be in the USA. I know, I know, satellites etc, but there almost always seems to be some issues with northern mexico systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nice cold conveyor signal from the 12z GEFS, PWAT anomalies are just above 1 SD too. Starting to get that heavy QPF signal at 250 mb too. Seeing negative u wind anomalies aloft is typically a good sign for a slow down in forward speed. Would rather see those be true easterly winds aloft for a real stall, but this will do. I like a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hows it looking here in death valley? ~2" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 hows it looking here in death valley? lol You'll be fine if this comes to fruition. Pretty much all of SNE is over 2"....maybe extreme western fringes at the NY border are a bit under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can a met or someone with access please give timeframe of storm on Euro? Start and end times? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is the weenie run of all weenie runs...like a SREF and DGEX love child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Commute from SNH to Boston for work Friday could be interesting...but I kinda want to make it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is the weenie run of all weenie runs...like a SREF and DGEX love child. Yeah or a DGEX/JMA love child. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There is another storm on EURO at 198 hrs...looks like it will be a big one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 2" contour near Greenfield...1.5" for taconics That would be the biggest snow storm since I moved here 5 years ago. Although Oct 2011 may have had that type of QPF but was plaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That would be the biggest snow storm since I moved here 5 years ago. Although Oct 2011 may have had that type of QPF but was plaster. You'd have to think there'll be some decent ratios inland with cold temps aloft...but it's way too early to delve into that. Something to consider though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Uh oh... Kevin @TollandKev Euro gives most of Sne 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That kind of QPF solution gives widespread double didgits considering there will be a fluff factor in the hills, NW etc... I don't think anybody will need a fluff factor to get double digits out of those qpf numbers, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Bold. So true! Once I saw the rest of the 12Z move this way and then the Euro double down I figured...whoah! This is special. Let's do this! lol... i was going wild with the 0z euro last night but none of the regular posters were here to share incredible signal... not sure how to be nervous with the "something inevitably goes wrong this far out"... does the banana high fail? does the phase fall apart as we get closer? but compared to the garbage we've had for 2 years, i'm relishing every moment of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can a met or someone with access please give timeframe of storm on Euro? Start and end times? Weenie snow starts probably Friday morning...perhaps even predawn. The real stuff hits Friday afternoon and night. Winds down predawn Sat morning to the west but lasts most of Saturday in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can a met or someone with access please give timeframe of storm on Euro? Start and end times? Steady precip appears to begin 15-18z, then tapers off 12-15z SAT for KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 DT's on board. Wxrisk.com **** ALERT *** ALERT ** HISTORIC SNOWSTORM LOOK INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR ALL OF NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND...12Z EURO Shows SEVERE NOREASTER ...12 TO 30" OF SNOW for all of New England ..except for for far N VT NH and MaineNESIS CATEGORY 5 ... RSI CATEGORY 5 EVENT Uh oh... Kevin @TollandKev Euro gives most of Sne 2-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wheres the closest cliff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Weenie snow starts probably Friday morning...perhaps even predawn. The real stuff hits Friday afternoon and night. Winds down predawn Sat morning to the west but lasts most of Saturday in the east. Yeah bulk between 18z fri -sat 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol... i was going wild with the 0z euro last night but none of the regular posters were here to share incredible signal... not sure how to be nervous with the "something inevitably goes wrong this far out"... does the banana high fail? does the phase fall apart as we get closer? but compared to the garbage we've had for 2 years, i'm relishing every moment of this... One thing I'd be nervous of is if it shifts west and warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is like a pdi storm further north. Close to december 05 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Please pardon my amateur question but how does this potential storm compare or analog to any others up here? Assuming it does occur as modeled? As modeled on the 12z euro verbatim, this would rival the greatest SNE snowstorms. 3.5" QPF snow around boston to providence would be 2-4 ft with heavy winds and drifting not to mention 2" QPF all over the region. Like Scott said this is the most extreme possible solution and not something anyone would forecast at this point, it just shows the highest end potential. As far as analogs for the setup, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Guys relax until tomorrow. I'm telling you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 One thing I'd be nervous of is if it shifts west and warmer... Its going to be very difficult for that in this flow. I'd worry more about an escape east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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