joey2002 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Very hard to believe that type of amped up solution right now though. I agree... how much QPF does it have over this general area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Can we have a Euro-nails-it-7-days-away-then-loses-it-in-4-days-then-brings-it-back like winters of old... Verbatim, too warm for CP but still something interesting to track. I'm skeptical with the fast h5 flow we still have at the end of the week, but Euro is stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Can we have a Euro-nails-it-7-days-away-then-loses-it-in-4-days-then-brings-it-back like winters of old... Verbatim, too warm for CP but still something interesting to track. I'm skeptical with the fast h5 flow we still have at the end of the week, but Euro is stubborn. 00zeuro850mbTSLPUS120.gif Verbatim, it would prob even flash to S+ on the CP for a time at the end...that is crazy dynamic on the Euro....can't believe it right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 How many runs in a row is this showing a bomb on the Euro now? It's not usually consistently wrong, so it should be interesting to watch the next few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 How many runs in a row is this showing a bomb on the Euro now? It's not usually consistently wrong, so it should be interesting to watch the next few runs... 3 runs now. Still want to see another couple before believing it and also some support from other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 3 runs now. Still want to see another couple before believing it and also some support from other guidance. Yeah, especially given how poorly the models have been performing lately in this pattern. Still have 4-5 days to sort things out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 How many runs in a row is this showing a bomb on the Euro now? It's not usually consistently wrong, so it should be interesting to watch the next few runs... It showed a big coastal on 3 runs for one of the threats this year and then it completely lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfastx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Trying very hard not to get my hopes up, history this year tells us that the models are gonna completely lose this thing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro will come around this run to the other guidance. Seems to only go off the range for 2 runs at a time. Ggem has no signs of the euro tempest either. Just some energy moving along west to east. Snowy week inbound but a major low seems improbable i was thinking this as well... but nope.... lol. its a lot different/faster with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Trying very hard not to get my hopes up, history this year tells us that the models are gonna completely lose this thing.. Yup, the way this winter has gone, its either gonna go totally flat or its gonna blow up 400 miles east of where its currently modeled. Id be comfortable if it was progged to be over Buffalo, then maybe it would trend out to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say nope.Heh...I'm not sure the last time I've seen the op and ens mean that far apart at d5. Looks like the op's occasional overamped cyclogenesis woes continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HPC sees support for a coastal benchmark track albeit not as deep as the euro. Ddid Euro end have a coastal storm at all? I like the sound of this for a solid moderate snowstorm for most of us. WITH MUCH OF THE 4/00Z GUIDANCE IN...THERE IS PLENTY OF SUPPORTFOR COMPLEX COASTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT AND SECONDARY INTENSIFICATIONOF A SURFACE WAVE OFF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE (IN THE OUTER BANKSAND BLOCK ISLAND CORRIDOR) ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MANUALGRAPHICS CERTAINLY ARE NOT PERFECT PROGS...BUT I DID DRAW A SFCLOW TRACK (AND INTERMEDIATE POSITION)...PASSING OVER THE BENCHMARKBEFORE 9/00Z IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1004 MB AND DEEPENING TO 996MBEAST OF HALIFAX NS AROUND 9/12Z. THIS INTERMEDIATE PROG (VALID9/00Z) IS CLOSER TO THE 4/00Z UKMET FOR DEPTH BUT HONORS THE TRACKOF THE 3/12Z ECMWF PACKAGE AND THE 4/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF. THEDEEPEST SFC PRESSURE AT 983 MB AS IT ENTERS THE SW GULF OF MAINEAFTER 9/00Z MIGHT BE OVERDONE...BUT THE TRENDS FROM YESTERDAYSUPPORT ONE LAST CYCLONE (CLIPPER) BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIRMASSRETREATS AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 euro ens look like every other system of late - they are way SE of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Low low low expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm onboard for a miss. The mid week system will have more snow than we see Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm onboard for a miss. The mid week system will have more snow than we see FridayFirst good news in a while5-7". La la lock it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm onboard for a miss. The mid week system will have more snow than we see Friday First good news in a while 5-7". La la lock it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm onboard for a miss. The mid week system will have more snow than we see Friday I hope to be signaturing this comment saturday morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope to be signaturing this comment saturday morn We're just waiting for your daily humping of HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We're just waiting for your daily humping of HPC They have been dry humped and they are happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 that's a sick comma head on the 00z euro. that would plaster E MA as the storm moved east of the Cape. verbatim that weenie solution is probably a 3 to 6 hour period of near blizzard conditions for BOS and eventually even down onto the Cape. if only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 442 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013 FRI... 00Z ECMWF REMAINS ON THE ONLY PIECE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SIMULATES PHASING OF STREAMS WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AT OUR LONGITUDE. THIS YIELDS CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRI WITH LOW TRACKING CLOSE TO NANTUCKET/CAPE COD LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT. IF THIS TRACK VERIFIES WARMER AIR WOULD INVADE MOST OF THE REGION WITH SNOW TO RAIN AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS LOW PULLS AWAY. REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS AND ECENS ENSEMBLES DELAY PHASING/TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN LESS QPF AND IMPACT TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME RANGE ITS PRUDENT NOT TO CHASE ONE INDIVIDUAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL. HOWEVER THIS IS THE 4TH MODEL CYCLE OF THE ECMWF SIMULATING A BIG QPF EVENT FOR THE AREA. THE ECMWF MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION SUGGEST A POSSIBLE REGIME CHANGE AS IT ABRUPTLY CHANGES FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEND SUPPORT TO A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH THIS WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 ukie would be a nice set-up. it's closer to the BM and wouldn't flood the region with nearly the amount of mid and low-level warmth the euro would. also has a nice HP placement. all just speculation obviously based on the time frame. the GFS would just be a period of mix/rain for a chunk of the area and some lighter snows over the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Snow mid week and again Friday although the euro solution would bring me a long taint spell. Euro is on its own here now not even supported its own ensembles. Ride the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Garbage set up garbage storm. Focus on the clipper tomorrow night if you want a couple inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 one thing to take note of...though the seasonable trend has been "fast / progressive / late bloomer etc etc blah blah" this one late week isn't solely a northern stream feature getting mushed in the tight W flow aloft. there's a notable southern stream disturbance moving in concert with the northern stream energy. this doesn't mean they will phase and be a bomb by any means but we might need to be careful thinking the "seasonal trend" is the reason this fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Must be humping the Euro........................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say nope. I really don't believe we're going to see the OP type of phasing. Looks like a wintry week anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm surprised at HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.