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Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?


dryslot

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Its not as dire as you make it out to be but I would certainly like to see the closed low at 850 not over western NY, that would have a tendency to flood the mid levels with warmth on the south coast before the ccb went to town.........lots of time to go, enjoy the flakes now and tonight:)

Enjoying the snow immensley, nice to look out the window and see flakes falling!

 

-skisheep

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I'm not really, just trying to make points on both sides. Just having discussion.

 

I know just kidding.  I'm with you on this one....I'm optimistic but it's still pretty far out and the timing is so critical.  Eventually one of these systems would align right, I'm hoping this is the one but I can say at this point if it vanished I'd not be bummed at all. 

 

It'd be somewhat of a surprise though for the consensus to be off this badly if the storm suddenly shifted well east (or came further west).  Forgetting the issues with ejecting s/ws in the deep south one trend this year has been weakening the northern energy inside of 72+ hours.

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People keep talking about this NW trend to these winter storms but from the sidelines I just don't see it.  The first three trackable / shovelable snows trended NW in the last 72 hours but every threat since then has either stubbornly stayed SE/OTS or trended further SE as time went on.

 

That being said this one looks better to me (in an arm-chair quarterback sort of way) than the previous months worth of potential storms.  I'm hoping for a slight NW evolution personally so that SW NH and S VT gets a nice hit.

I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow.  I say this because when  model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out.  So 984 near CC might be the final outcome.

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I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow.  I say this because when  model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out.  So 984 near CC might be the final outcome.

Yes please  :) 

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I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow.  I say this because when  model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out.  So 984 near CC might be the final outcome.

You aren't saying that because it puts you on the jackpot are you? Of course not!

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Holy pessimism batman.

 

We were due eventually Scott, maybe this is the one.

 

 

Yeah ... but he's spot on with that analysis though.   Fact of the matter is the GFS ...well, the previous Euro runs et al for that matter, are all attempting to slip through a timing key-slot here with that stream interactions.  

 

However,  yesterday I noted that the flow may be transitioning during that Thur-Sat time frame and that still appears to be the case.   Both Euro and GFS show the immense compression in the gradient alleviated some, and that allows for the southern stream to hold together a bit longer after getting ejected out of the deep SW.  That passing by underneath the N stream induces the phase, and it may in fact all be rooted/allowed for by a flow that is losing some speed shear going into the time frames in question.  

 

If you need to pull off event with limited wiggle room for error, this may just be how you go about accomplishing.

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Yeah ... but he's spot on with that analysis though.   Fact of the matter is the GFS ...well, the previous Euro runs et al for that matter, are all attempting to slip through a timing key-slot here with that stream interactions.  

 

However,  yesterday I noted that the flow may be transitioning during that Thur-Sat time frame and that still appears to be the case.   Both Euro and GFS show the immense compression in the gradient alleviated some, and that allows for the southern stream to hold together a bit longer after getting ejected out of the deep SW.  That passing by underneath the N stream induces the phase, and it may in fact all be rooted/allowed for by a flow that is losing some speed shear going into the time frames in question.  

:o

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The risk is definitely still slipping east versus too amped...looking at the GFS solution, we have a very nice phase and normally that might send this thing up into interior SNE, but the proggesive northern stream is just humming along and so whilethe phase does tug a nice low northward, the whole time it is moving east as well. Its what gives E MA such a nice solution.

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