klw Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 "There's the snap. Lucy with the hold....." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsSXMT0NrB4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its not as dire as you make it out to be but I would certainly like to see the closed low at 850 not over western NY, that would have a tendency to flood the mid levels with warmth on the south coast before the ccb went to town.........lots of time to go, enjoy the flakes now and tonight:) Enjoying the snow immensley, nice to look out the window and see flakes falling! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GGEM closer but not quite fully on the phase bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm not really, just trying to make points on both sides. Just having discussion. I know just kidding. I'm with you on this one....I'm optimistic but it's still pretty far out and the timing is so critical. Eventually one of these systems would align right, I'm hoping this is the one but I can say at this point if it vanished I'd not be bummed at all. It'd be somewhat of a surprise though for the consensus to be off this badly if the storm suddenly shifted well east (or came further west). Forgetting the issues with ejecting s/ws in the deep south one trend this year has been weakening the northern energy inside of 72+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Man I would take a miss if I had to to see that happen for BOS On behalf of the city, we humbly accept your noble sacrifice. We shall now seal the pact in blood; bring for the ceremonial scrotum knives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 People keep talking about this NW trend to these winter storms but from the sidelines I just don't see it. The first three trackable / shovelable snows trended NW in the last 72 hours but every threat since then has either stubbornly stayed SE/OTS or trended further SE as time went on. That being said this one looks better to me (in an arm-chair quarterback sort of way) than the previous months worth of potential storms. I'm hoping for a slight NW evolution personally so that SW NH and S VT gets a nice hit. I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow. I say this because when model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out. So 984 near CC might be the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 On behalf of the city, we humbly accept your noble sacrifice. We shall now seal the pact in blood; bring for the ceremonial scrotum knives. harwinton always jackpots...i don't know why he'd be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? Cause the two biggest weenies on the board live there, one of them being <<< that guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Reading this thread while it snows lightly outside is just too much, wish this was sooner and we could lock it up. Typically this winter trend hasn't been our friend so hoping to stay away from it to begin going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow. I say this because when model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out. So 984 near CC might be the final outcome. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 harwinton always jackpots...i don't know why he'd be worried. Don't you forget it sucka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think we might see a tick NW tomorrow. I say this because when model sniffs out a storm, like the Euro did 2 or 3 days ago, often the final results trends back to what it was showing when it sniffed it out. So 984 near CC might be the final outcome. You aren't saying that because it puts you on the jackpot are you? Of course not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Holy pessimism batman. We were due eventually Scott, maybe this is the one. Yeah ... but he's spot on with that analysis though. Fact of the matter is the GFS ...well, the previous Euro runs et al for that matter, are all attempting to slip through a timing key-slot here with that stream interactions. However, yesterday I noted that the flow may be transitioning during that Thur-Sat time frame and that still appears to be the case. Both Euro and GFS show the immense compression in the gradient alleviated some, and that allows for the southern stream to hold together a bit longer after getting ejected out of the deep SW. That passing by underneath the N stream induces the phase, and it may in fact all be rooted/allowed for by a flow that is losing some speed shear going into the time frames in question. If you need to pull off event with limited wiggle room for error, this may just be how you go about accomplishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah ... but he's spot on with that analysis though. Fact of the matter is the GFS ...well, the previous Euro runs et al for that matter, are all attempting to slip through a timing key-slot here with that stream interactions. However, yesterday I noted that the flow may be transitioning during that Thur-Sat time frame and that still appears to be the case. Both Euro and GFS show the immense compression in the gradient alleviated some, and that allows for the southern stream to hold together a bit longer after getting ejected out of the deep SW. That passing by underneath the N stream induces the phase, and it may in fact all be rooted/allowed for by a flow that is losing some speed shear going into the time frames in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You aren't saying that because it puts you on the jackpot are you? Of course not! It won't be that far NW. maybe between ACK and CC though....but that's as far as I can see this going with a strong high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thank god I convinced my boss to fly back to MHT Thu night instead of Friday. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CMC to me looked pretty good through. 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The risk is definitely still slipping east versus too amped...looking at the GFS solution, we have a very nice phase and normally that might send this thing up into interior SNE, but the proggesive northern stream is just humming along and so whilethe phase does tug a nice low northward, the whole time it is moving east as well. Its what gives E MA such a nice solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CMC to me looked pretty good through. 72. Not to be a neg nancy to you guys, but GGEM turns BOS to rain on the precip maps http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 subsidence Can't forget downsloping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not to be a neg nancy to you guys, but GGEM turns BOS to rain on the precip maps http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html The GEM ptype maps are about as useful as the NAM clown maps at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GEM ptype maps are about as useful as the NAM clown maps at this time range. Ah I did not know that... they do not have a relationship with the actual run itself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Can't forget downsloping! 12-14" for Kevin while SE MA is getting 24-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 UKMET looks to be fully on the bus too. Where are you viewing the Ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Cause the two biggest weenies on the board live there, one of them being <<< that guy. Not lying there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? Kevin already said yesterday, no storm so I fully expect 0" and heavy cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is it too early to start coming up with reasons why this storm will underperform in Tolland County? The mother of all dry slots will rear her ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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