ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's obviously all about the southern stream incorporation and timing. It'll be interesting to watch the evolution of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 With bigger events? Ala 12/29 and 12/27? The weaker s/w not so much, but the more potent ones I thought seemed to trend more potent over time, no? 12/29 def did come NW at the end...12/27 I don't think really did, we actually were trending that storm SE from an Apps runner (Euro actually had it as a cutter at one point) once we got to about 100 hours. Inside of 72 I recall mostly just run to run nuances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 that run essentially goes for my screen name. That's awesome looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would actually say that this is the opposite of what has actually happened in most events. Yes, but it's nice, nonetheless, to see the GFS line up with the Euro on THIS type of solution. Again, the timeframe allows for a good bit of wiggle; future solutions may go back to an un-phased, un-amplified solution or bring changeover threats into the picture. Keeping that gorgeous banana high and the phase is a good combo, though. I am hopeful, but my expectations are low given the way things have typically played out this year. Last week there were two runs of the GFS that hinted at a glancing blow on Sunday and they faded into the distance as quickly as they showed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I think it's coming Wow, that's huge. You never say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 With the classic up to the north I feel justified in some optimism. Even if we don't get the GFS/ECMWF bomb, we're probably getting a fairly snowy day Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yes, but it's nice, nonetheless, to see the GFS line up with the Euro on THIS type of solution. Again, the timeframe allows for a good bit of wiggle; future solutions may go back to an un-phased, un-amplified solution or bring changeover threats into the picture. Keeping that gorgeous banana high and the phase is a good combo, though. I am hopeful, but my expectations are low given the way things have typically played out this year. Last week there were two runs of the GFS that hinted at a glancing blow on Sunday and they faded into the distance as quickly as they showed up. Right, but in this case this has gone from a glancing blow to an even stronger hit versus fading away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Now watch the Euro pull the rug out in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well things are certainly more interesting now. GFS is a bomb. Storm crawls away from New England. And is depicted to be about a 20 hour storm. For the love of God please let the Euro hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It looks like it would change to snow as it moves out, but the best CCB is to the east. Prob a few inches though at the end. Oh well, thanks anyway. How much would it have to shift for me to have a shot at significant(6"+) snow with this? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Right, but in this case this has gone from a glancing blow to an even stronger hit versus fading away... Remember what i told you earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Now watch the Euro pull the rug out in 90 minutes. Well things are certainly more interesting now. GFS is a bomb. Storm crawls away from New England. And is depicted to be about a 20 hour storm. For the love of God please let the Euro hold serve. Classic Dr. No run coming at 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Figure the on-air mets wait 'til tomorrow before talking too much about this other than, "it's probably going to snow friday." Hopefully we get some consistency on the models from here forward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Whoever went down with the key and unlocked the gulf, thank you As long as it's not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh well, thanks anyway. How much would it have to shift for me to have a shot at significant(6"+) snow with this? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah Phil, the euro has been more robust with that ridge...I noticed that yesterday. Certainly helps out with getting the s/w further north and then dynamics do the rest as you described. That's why srn stream systems have my attention. Exactly... and up until this week, the southern stream really hasn't been playing a role in many of these east coast systems. The key factor both the GFS and ECMWF are coming in line with is that the southern stream shortwave will be very dynamic, with quite a large area of stratiform and convective precip. This helps the phasing because the ridge amplification is there to advect the southern stream shortwave into the polar stream shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Congrats NE, looks nice on GFS. Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Now the board can make the transition from "It will never snow again; I just want a couple inches" to people having meltdowns with each model run that shows them not being jackpotted with 24+". That's part of the charm of this place: the goalposts are always moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I guess the progressive nature also makes me pause a bit. This wil have to walk a fine line to phase I think. I mean the flow is still sort of fast and can we wrap moisture that far west without phasing? Just a lot of things need to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 desparate is more like it, although snow is nice for you guys, this does little to soothe the mind of SW CT snow lovers. In all seriousness though, do I have a shot, or am I watching from the sidelines? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Phil gets a fooking hurricane. Screen shots for us plebians here who don't have that kind of access? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I guess the progressive nature also makes me pause a bit. This wil have to walk a fine line to phase I think. I mean the flow is still sort of fast and can we wrap moisture that far west without phasing? Just a lot of things need to go right. Holy pessimism batman. We were due eventually Scott, maybe this is the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Classic Dr. No run coming at 12z? "There's the snap. Lucy with the hold....." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Good luck to you folks! This winter has been wrought with disappointment nearly everywhere else, so I'm really hoping you guys get something good. It's been dull lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 UKMET looks to be fully on the bus too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 desparate is more like it, although snow is nice for you guys, this does little to soothe the mind of SW CT snow lovers. In all seriousness though, do I have a shot, or am I watching from the sidelines? -skisheep Its not as dire as you make it out to be but I would certainly like to see the closed low at 850 not over western NY, that would have a tendency to flood the mid levels with warmth on the south coast before the ccb went to town.........lots of time to go, enjoy the flakes now and tonight:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Screen shots for us plebians here who don't have that kind of access? Yeah. Someone get these lesbians some imagery, pronto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Holy pessimism batman. We were due eventually Scott, maybe this is the one. I'm not really, just trying to make points on both sides. Just having discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Man I would take a miss if I had to to see that happen for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's funny to say ... but my "hunch" is that the Euro will do the opposite and come in a bit more amped. Btw folks, pattern "might" get exotically stormy this month - SSW now appears at last to be effecting the the AO progs at CPC, and it makes sense when looking at the slope out rates of the downward welling warm anomaly - clearly now punching through the tropopausal altitudes amid the regions above 60N latitude, so blocking may erupt rather abruptly in the progs going forward. The EPO as CDC has gotten more extremely negative across the last 3 nightly computations, and now, the NCEP channel has a rarer tandem +PNA/-NAO teleconnector. Helluva lot of converging signals beginning to abound for storminess with cold. Also, the -AO distribution would appear to favor our side of the N Hemisphere, because the EPO going negative provides the delivery circuit once the AO dumps her goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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