Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nam is not liking the phase idea Its backing off from last night, did at 6z and once again at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I agree that the GFS looks too warm given the high pressure, but it's still a bit of a concern for our neck of the woods. I would love for the Euro to win this one, of course. But it hasn't been my model of choice in a winter where suppression has been the solution that wins out more than not and it's the outlier with its particular solution. Yeah usually we have to deal with those concerns where we live. Either way, since this is kind of a complicated setup (aren't they always)...I'll wait until maybe tomorrow about worrying with the details. Euro was pretty darn cold..even if it were like a 34F snow to start out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its backing off from last night, did at 6z and once again at 12z. Does most of its work from the northern s/w like some of the other models have shown over the last day or 2, Its not there yet on the Nam, And probably won't get there anyways........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM can show whatever it wants. It usually does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Nam is down to a 6-12 hr model-nothing more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM can show whatever it wants. It usually does. It just has a weaker northern stream versus 00z and 06z. Its solution right now is about as close to meaningless as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would take the nam in heartbeat! All snow nice advisory low end warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Seems like snow breaks out after midnite no matter what scenario plays out and lasts into Friday nite. So we're only about 60 hours away from start timr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I would take the nam in heartbeat! All snow nice advisory low end warning. Agreed something like the NAM is probably what we want down here, goes against the wishes of the greater board since its no KU for them, but a nice snow for us down here, probably the most for MBY out of the Euro/Gfs/Nam. Too bad it's the NAM... -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's a nice dual upper jet structure progged..not perfect but the southern stream puts the general area under the LFQ and the northern stream places NE under the RRQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's a nice dual upper jet structure progged..not perfect but the southern stream puts the general area under the LFQ and the northern stream places NE under the RRQ. Yep...the're also some decent ML frontogensis between the high to the north and the general area of low pressure south. You can clearly see even on a NAM solution how the isotherms get more tightly packed over SNE. The combo of all this is probably why that even in a fairly tame looking upper level solution like the NAM, we still see some decent QPF being spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Quick question for mets...or anyone when you look at the say 66hr NAM 500mb vort plot you see this. Then the 06hr precip looks like this how is there all that precip down south without any + vort? I guess that confuses me. Do you just look at different levels of the atmosphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 While, it's the NAM...something like that would be a reasonable expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's a nice dual upper jet structure progged..not perfect but the southern stream puts the general area under the LFQ and the northern stream places NE under the RRQ. There's a lot of nice stuff. Look at the CCB if you have the ability. I'm not at work, but it's a thing of beauty. Dammit being 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Quick question for mets...or anyone when you look at the say 66hr NAM 500mb vort plot you see this. Then the 06hr precip looks like this how is there all that precip down south without any + vort? I guess that confuses me. Do you just look at different levels of the atmosphere? Anytime you have a trough to the west, you'll have + vorticity advection. It's just that it doesn't show up as yellow or higher because it's weak. Also, there is a front dragging to the southwest that can force lift without much help from aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Anytime you have a trough to the west, you'll have + vorticity advection. It's just that it doesn't show up as yellow or higher because it's weak. Also, there is a front dragging to the southwest that can force lift without much help from aloft. Thanks man exactly what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Today's runs are the runs where we've seen models lose systems most of the year. IE, the step down from 96 to 72 hours out, todays 12z and 0z runs. Let's see what happens. 6z GEFS still had the low pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Quick question for mets...or anyone when you look at the say 66hr NAM 500mb vort plot you see this. Then the 06hr precip looks like this how is there all that precip down south without any + vort? I guess that confuses me. Do you just look at different levels of the atmosphere? I was just having this conversation with JustinWX on facebook. The NCEP graphics are terrible. When looking at the College of DuPage models page, at hour 27 I can see the Southern stream energy (at 500) moving through Southern Texas. While the NCEP NAM only has a vort max in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thanks man exactly what I was looking for. All those shortwaves due, are to help force air to rise. Ahead of it is where the air can diverge and form a void. The air aloft also cools as it approaches. This void needs to be filled due to the laws of atmospheric physics. That means air must rise. You could argue air can sink from aloft to fill the void, but it doesn't work like that and much, much, more of the atmosphere exists below 500mb than above it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's a lot of nice stuff. Look at the CCB if you have the ability. I'm not at work, but it's a thing of beauty. Dammit being 4 days out.Its 2.5-3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 All those shortwaves do, are to help force air to rise. Ahead of it is where the air can diverge and form a void. The air aloft also cools as it approaches. This void needs to be filled due to the laws of atmospheric physics. That means air must rise. You could argue air can sink from aloft to fill the void, but it doesn't work like that and much, much, more of the atmosphere exists below 500mb than above it. awesome dude, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Thanks man exactly what I was looking for. Another thing is to not pay attention to the shading for vort maxes. Pay more attention to the height contours. Take the 570 line for example. There appears to be 2 shortwaves, one in Texas and the other in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Today's runs are the runs where we've seen models lose systems most of the year. IE, the step down from 96 to 72 hours out, todays 12z and 0z runs. Let's see what happens. 6z GEFS still had the low pretty far offshore. It's not like we've seen any great regime change from our suppression pattern so optimism with heavy caution flags is the safe route this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol @chris signature messenger good point about models losing storms in this time frame. you know if the euro doesn't phase today we would all be left holding tickets at the station, shaking our heads. as of 10 am , i lookd at a lot of bos mets twitter pages, and not many have bought into euro , i think if 12z suite does what last nite's 0z did they will buy tickets as well. these 12z runs are pretty big imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its 2.5-3 days out The northern shortwave induced snows are....but not the one from the southern shortwave...which is really the difference betweeen a moderate event and a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol @chris signature messenger good point about models losing storms in this time frame. you know if the euro doesn't phase today we would all be left holding tickets at the station, shaking our heads. as of 10 am , i lookd at a lot of bos mets twitter pages, and not many have bought into euro , i think if 12z suite does what last nite's 0z did they will buy tickets as well. these 12z runs are pretty big imo They haven't bought tickets because their forecasts go out to 2.5 million people. Our forecasts go to a bunch of weenies in here. But secretly I bet they are waiting in line to buy a ticket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Standing at the ticket machine trying to decide whether to buy a ticket. If 12z continues to show the system might be time to start phoning a friend for friday night somewhere up north in ski country. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 based on the number of online meltdowns we've had already...if this threat craps the bed, i'm pretty sure our forum will implode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 based on the number of online meltdowns we've had already...if this threat craps the bed, i'm pretty sure our forum will implode... That would certainly show that people haven't learned their lesson WRT NWP guidance at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That would certainly show that people haven't learned their lesson WRT NWP guidance at this range. Nobody will ever learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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