dryslot Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 18z GFS looks a little better with the nrn s/w, but the srn stream energy is lagging behind. At this point I'd glady take a near advisory event from just the nrn stream. More of us may even get in on the fun that way. Yeah that's what i had mentioned earlier as well, That s/w wave itself in the northern stream is pretty potent and would give us a decent little event up here, Without a phase with the southern s/w, A few would get tainted with a more amped solution phasing the southern piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18z GFS looks a little better with the nrn s/w, but the srn stream energy is lagging behind. At this point I'd glady take a near advisory event from just the nrn stream. More of us may even get in on the fun that way. I'd much rather chance it with the southern energy involved. The antecedent airmass onm Thursday before the system is decent and I could see it trending colder. But at this point, I wouldn't turn down 3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 not much on the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18Z GFS better than 12Z.. My friends that own a country store at the end of the snowmobile trailin town are freaking out. They made it through a short sled riding season but other than a brief 2 days the trails are unridable. They depend on the sled traffic in the winter. She calls me every day to see if I see anything on the horizon. I don't like to get her hopes up but finally today told her something maybe Friday/Sat. The 4' stuff doesn't cut it. We need one 10" storm and just can't seem to get it! Still 7 weeks of snow season left although I like the powder dark Dec, January storms. Late season with high sun angle we start loosing the retention. Beggars can't be choosers at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Not to beat a dead horse, but I think the Euro is totally out to lunch with the coastal at the end of the week. The GFS may be underdoing the northern stream and we'll likely have 2-3 'periods' of snowier weather this week but big coastal...I'd bet heavily against it. I could be wrong, JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18z GFS looks a little better with the nrn s/w, but the srn stream energy is lagging behind. At this point I'd glady take a near advisory event from just the nrn stream. More of us may even get in on the fun that way. Not me. Not up for a 3-4 inch snowfall....all or nothing on this one in my book. I want to get out on my snowshoes and snowmobiling with friends. I want to dig pathways in my yard. I want my year and a half old dog to play in a real snow cover, not just that wet halloween storm. 2 runs in a row where the GFS trended better. Still less than 50% for a 4+ widespread event I would think, although to see GYX talking about it is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 I'd much rather chance it with the southern energy involved. The antecedent airmass onm Thursday before the system is decent and I could see it trending colder. But at this point, I wouldn't turn down 3" of snow. Don't get me wrong...I'd love an amped up Euro solution at my latitude, but when I'm staring at mostly bare ground in early Feb I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 18z GFS looks a little better with the nrn s/w, but the srn stream energy is lagging behind. At this point I'd glady take a near advisory event from just the nrn stream. More of us may even get in on the fun that way. Agreed. A nice advisory event on the gfs would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Still less than 50% for a 4+ widespread event I would think, although to see GYX talking about it is a good thing. I noticed that GYX was the only office to jump on the Euro solution. Boston, Mt. Holly, others said to wait. GYX seems to over-reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I noticed that GYX was the only office to jump on the Euro solution. Boston, Mt. Holly, others said to wait. GYX seems to over-reach. No they don't, They are usually pretty conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1985 Polar Bear Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 No they don't, They are usually pretty conservative I tend to agree in the past, but something seems different this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I tend to agree in the past, but something seems different this year. I somewhat agree, they were somewhat bullish on today's storm and that didn't work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS still not biting on the big Euro type solution. I think its probably more correct...but we'll see as the rest of the 00z suite comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS still not biting on the big Euro type solution. I think its probably more correct...but we'll see as the rest of the 00z suite comes out. LOl what a weird look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS still not biting on the big Euro type solution. I think its probably more correct...but we'll see as the rest of the 00z suite comes out. nice clipper tough, verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 LOl what a weird look. Yeah, Euro is weird look too...the whole setup is a weird look regardless of what happens. Not a classic big coastal look though unless that southern stream can become a larger player. Does look like there will be at least some snow out of this...particularly in the interior...lot of onshore flow in both solutions will make it tough for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeah, Euro is weird look too...the whole setup is a weird look regardless of what happens. Not a classic big coastal look though unless that southern stream can become a larger player. Does look like there will be at least some snow out of this...particularly in the interior...lot of onshore flow in both solutions will make it tough for the coast. If ever we could survive the onshore flow, early Feb would be the best time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Uncle gives us some snow Tuesday night. Lots to work out.... Gfs has modest Friday snow...from who knows what.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If ever we could survive the onshore flow, early Feb would be the best time. Well just inland would prob be ok around 128...the GFS solution has a really tight CF on the windfield...almost due north winds near 128 for a time while its like E or even slightly ESE right along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Looks funny when looping the sfc maps. It's like a inverted trough tracking across the country around the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Looks funny when looping the sfc maps. It's like a inverted trough tracking across the country around the high. Euro is probably going to have a monster bomb over the benchmark. At least we have some southern stream energy to play with... who knows if we can actually get a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Looks funny when looping the sfc maps. It's like a inverted trough tracking across the country around the high. Yeah it's real weird. Hopefully we don't get screwed totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro will come around this run to the other guidance. Seems to only go off the range for 2 runs at a time. Ggem has no signs of the euro tempest either. Just some energy moving along west to east. Snowy week inbound but a major low seems improbable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Ukie much more robust with this system than the fairly tame GFS/GGEM...still not a Euro blow-up storm, but probably a high end advisory or even low end warning looking at the sfc maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Ukie much more robust with this system than the fairly tame GFS/GGEM...still not a Euro blow-up storm, but probably a high end advisory or even low end warning looking at the sfc maps. Has the ukie had a single storm in this pattern that it didn't develop way too much? It's the new JMA in this pattern, lol. Ukie being for a storm almost seems to be like having the Kuro in the camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GGEM was actually a bit more robust than I thought...solid advisory for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro not giving up on the bomb solution. Still getting that southern enrgy involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The Euro goes bonkers again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Did go a hair SE...so slightly better for here, lol...but this matter almost nil at this time range. I still think the Euro is too amped given the utter lack of support from any other guidance. It has a sick collapsing CCB that crushes interior SNE/CNE after the taint line gets to N ORH county at 114h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 That's like Dec '05-esque the way it nukes at the end. Very hard to believe that type of amped up solution right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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