CT Rain Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Kevin is such a . No matter what his forecast... Kevin is always right in the end. Spinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That was the perfect track and evolution on the euro last night for mby, why can't this be closer to go time lol. One again in the bullseye at 84ish hours on the euro has meant we get burned this year. Hope the southern stream involvement means we buck the trend this time. I'm keeping expectations very low. Plus with the kfs abruptly jumping on board, I fear the fail trend starts at 12Z. (please be wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is there a reason I can't lock in the 2 feet the euro gives me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Kevin is such a . No matter what his forecast... Kevin is always right in the end. Spinnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn. I'll remember what you said about me.. Forgive but not forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 CostanzaBlizz FTL Hard to go against 5 Euro runs in a row. Still a ways out though Is it? I'll feel more confident if we are seeing individual GFS memebers jumping aboard with similar solutions to the Euro come tomorrows runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 and i suppose the poor ms. frank, who was looking for a forecast last night, was privy to this reverse psych? lol! Someone got it!!..Good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'll remember what you said about me.. Forgive but not forget As we all know, Your hurt feelings line is reverse psychology as well, We need this system to gain more lat on the Euro before it goes ENE verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 euro is very impressive. that's a classic crushing for a good chunk of SNE...that run looks the most impressive yet. don't have to use your imagination too much to know what that would look like. nice HP placement on most guidance too and actually comes in freshly on wednesday night / thursday which is a good sign. what's nice to see is even the guidance that's more interested in making the northern stream the main show are fairly robust with the moisture fields so odds for a decent event somewhere - whether that's SNE, NNE or both - are good i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 euro is very impressive. that's a classic crushing for a good chunk of SNE...that run looks the most impressive yet. don't have to use your imagination too much to know what that would look like. nice HP placement on most guidance too and actually comes in freshly on wednesday night / thursday which is a good sign. what's nice to see is even the guidance that's more interested in making the northern stream the main show are fairly robust with the moisture fields so odds for a decent event somewhere - whether that's SNE, NNE or both - are good i think. Just wish it was Thursday morning and not Tuesday. 48 hours a lot can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The storm has such a comma head which is why the euro is so juicy. Still have to be careful to fall in love here. We have 4 days still. Certainlhy nice to wake up to this. I daresay that I kind of like where it's sitting right now. Still a ton of time for this to shift--perhaps significantly. Now is when we can get into some serious 'intra-region' claims of wins and losses as any runs with SE jackpots will minimize accums in western NE and the converse could likely bring p-type issues for many areas. I'm supposed to be driving up to Jackson on Friday night--might be a decent weekend to do so. At least we have something fun to watch--and hope for. 15.3/11 at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 The northern stream s/w has been the one pretty much all along has been a given, Its intensity and interaction with the s/w south has been whats been in question, Looks like we are starting to see some of these question have some answers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol...6z NOGAPS is amped and over the outer Cape. EC ens mean has the 0.75" line running from coastal ME to about here and southward to about HFD/BDR. They also seem to be about 6hrs faster than the op. GYX iand BOS sa it is the Euro by itslelf but other guidance has trended towards it it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did people really think I was going with a miss.. Have i ever done that? Has anyone ever known me to downplay an event? Still some really awful comments overnight..but it is what it is. Let's hope the trends continue today. If this comes any farther west mixing becomes an issue for some Come on you love the attention. What are you humping this morning? I wanted to hump HPC...they say they are going with the Euro for the entire mid range but then don't mention that it shows a bomb near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Great trends, can't wait for the 12z models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BTV with a nice discussion... ECMWF HAS A DOUBLEBARREL LOW PRES STRUCTURE WITH 1ST LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITHNORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE 2ND LOWDEVELOPS NEAR THE HATTERAS COAST LINE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERNSTREAM ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRES QUICKLY DEEPENS TO 987MB NEARTHE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 12Z SAT...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF FEATUREACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW GOOD DEEP 850 TO 500MB RHPROFILES...FAVORABLE 25H JET DYNAMICS...STRONG Q-VECTORCONVERGENCE...AND SOME 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING ACRS OUR CWA.THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTHREGION...WL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOW EVENT. THINKING ADVISORY/LOWEND WARNING TYPE EVENT FOR OUR CWA. NAM/GFS/GEM MODEL QPF IS BTWN0.25 AND 0.50"...WHILE ECMWF CONTS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE BTWN 0.50AND 0.75"...AND IS MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER WITH TROF AMPLIFICATION ANDCOASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN...FAST WESTERLY FLW AND NOCLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION FEEL THE ECMWF IS A BIT OVERDONE WITH QPFAMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL. WL TRIM BACK QPF AND MENTIONVALUES BTWN 0.35 AND 0.55...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOWGROWTH...EXPECT RATIO`S AROUND 15 TO 1...RESULTING IN EARLYESTIMATES FOR SNOW OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS FRIDAYINTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL IN HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How did 00z euro compare to 12z euro? Was there any appreciable difference in the two runs in terms of track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GYX iand BOS sa it is the Euro by itslelf but other guidance has trended towards it it seems. Actually, BOX references the internationals. AT THIS POINT HAVE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS CAMP AND THAT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BTV with a nice discussion... ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE BARREL LOW PRES STRUCTURE WITH 1ST LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE 2ND LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE HATTERAS COAST LINE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRES QUICKLY DEEPENS TO 987MB NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK BY 12Z SAT...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROF FEATURE ACRS OUR CWA. MODELS SHOW GOOD DEEP 850 TO 500MB RH PROFILES...FAVORABLE 25H JET DYNAMICS...STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...AND SOME 850 TO 700MB FGEN FORCING ACRS OUR CWA. THIS COMBINED WITH GOOD RH IN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH REGION...WL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOW EVENT. THINKING ADVISORY/LOW END WARNING TYPE EVENT FOR OUR CWA. NAM/GFS/GEM MODEL QPF IS BTWN 0.25 AND 0.50"...WHILE ECMWF CONTS TO BE ON THE HIGH SIDE BTWN 0.50 AND 0.75"...AND IS MUCH SLOWER/DEEPER WITH TROF AMPLIFICATION AND COASTAL LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN...FAST WESTERLY FLW AND NO CLOSED 5/7H CIRCULATION FEEL THE ECMWF IS A BIT OVERDONE WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL. WL TRIM BACK QPF AND MENTION VALUES BTWN 0.35 AND 0.55...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH...EXPECT RATIO`S AROUND 15 TO 1...RESULTING IN EARLY ESTIMATES FOR SNOW OF 4 TO 8 INCHES. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN HWO. Did BTV happen to use reverse psychology as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 .Just wish it was Thursday morning and not Tuesday. 48 hours a lot can change Well yeah I mean I wish it was Friday morning right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did BTV happen to use reverse psychology as well? LOL. Albany's AFD brings a smile to the faces in GC. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE QPF IS INCREASING ON MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CAN GGEM...NAM...AND GFS ARE INDICATING A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE NAM AND CAN GGEM WOULD HAVE SOME OF THE OVER RUNNING PCPN MOVING IN MUCH EARLIER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES INDICATE MAINLY ZONE AWAY FROM THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT. SOME RAIN MAY IN BRIEFLY ON FRI IN THE SRN TIER. THE LATEST 00Z GEFS PLUME FOR ALBANY INDICATES A DECENT CLUSTER OF MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.2-0.40 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A TRIO BETWEEN 0.5-0.6 INCHES...AND TWO OUTLIERS AROUND AN INCH. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD...BUT THE GENERAL TRENDS WARRANT A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK FOR AT LEAST A MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR POTENTIALLY ADVISORY OR LOW END WARNING CRITERIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY...IF THE LAST 6 RUNS OF THE ECMWF VERIFY...AND THEY HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SIZABLE SIGNIFICANT STORM FOR PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SNOWFALL WILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA...AS THE COASTAL WAVE MOVES WELL EAST OF CAPE COD INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Did BTV happen to use reverse psychology as well? lol, Glad we are not in the bulls eye right now, Usually makes for some disappointment come verification time, The ggem was 973 mb south of NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 And for cripe sakes don't pin the thread......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Fully expecting mixing issues on the coast. No hope here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 lol, Glad we are not in the bulls eye right now, Usually makes for some disappointment come verification time, The ggem was 973 mb south of NS Well looking at everything but QPF, it seems rather encouraging for pretty much everyone from NY state into NNE and SNE. I really like the strength of that northern stream stuff at this point, so even if the coastal goes too far out to sea, we are probably still looking at Advisory level snow anyway. We are still eons away in model time and a lot will happen over the next 48 hours... who knows, maybe it goes back to that Lewiston, ME crusher from a few days ago when Oceanstwx posted that ECM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well looking at everything but QPF, it seems rather encouraging for pretty much everyone from NY state into NNE and SNE. I really like the strength of that northern stream stuff at this point, so even if the coastal goes too far out to sea, we are probably still looking at Advisory level snow anyway. We are still eons away in model time and a lot will happen over the next 48 hours... who knows, maybe it goes back to that Lewiston, ME crusher from a few days ago when Oceanstwx posted that ECM map. Don't even care if i jackpot, Just want enough to ride on, I don't have that fetish as most have on here, The northern s/w has been there all along, I was pretty confident we were going to see snow anyways, The only questions to be answered was do we get a coastal and how much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What a pleasant surprise this AM. And, does anyone remember what happened 35 years ago today/tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 What a pleasant surprise this AM. And, does anyone remember what happened 35 years ago today/tomorrow? Blizz 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Fully expecting mixing issues on the coast. No hope here. That's always been in cards. There is a lot of time left with this thing so I really wouldn't get hopes too high either way. Just too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All Wet Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't want there to be a snowstorm on Friday. I really don't want to have plowable snow that covers the dead grass. I really, really don't want to have a snow day off from work on Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well we finally have other guidance caving to the Euro...the biggest question will be if the Euro caves back at all, but even if it does, that would still result in a moderate event for SNE I think like the GFS is showing. Euro ensembles were very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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