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Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?


dryslot

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1st storm ever that the Kuro has never seen coming?

he will recover and say "well now you now know i don't just latch on to every threat so this is proof i'm not a  wish caster, many of the pro's were skeptical, but now i adjust and we get nude"  should be pretty ez transition for the blizz man

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IMO we need more digging and even more robust N'rn stream to phase with the the south one.

EC appears to be doing the opposite forcing S'rn stream into a phase with the N'rn stream

 

Actually, Ryan, it's usually the southern stream that induces the northern stream (subsume).   What happens is the N stream will move along a given latitude, but when a southern stream times right, the geopotential height resistance is lowered to the S of the N stream and that causes a latitudinal decent - the southern stream then cyclonically curls N around the stress in the flow, and that is the initiation of phasing.  

 

Dr. Frank Colby did an interesting paper on Feb 1978 that really shows how this takes place.  Post reading that analysis I have gone back over many double streamer unions and they were almost all the same way, for full or quasi phase.   

 

What would be a really interesting experiment would be to take a verified subsume result, and preprogram the input grid to remove the southern stream - the N stream would not descend in latitude in the absence of the southern stream timing, if theory is correct.   But - and this is going to sound inCREdibly nerdy, but I have watched vortexes in simmering pots of water, where a rotating eddy suddenly slips toward a passing stream velocity.  It makes perfect sense to me, and although I am the biggest dork on the "phase" of the planet, there is something to be said for microscale modeling because that is what experimental lab work uses.  

 

John

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i'm gonna see if the oil in my boiling pot of pasta water pot will phase if i put a couple streams in. i will space them to be an exact replica of the gfs and euro vorts spacing and stare for minutes and see if i can run my own ensemble plots. i just told the girlfriend the pasta will take an extra 20 mins this eve.

 

awaiting GEFS. nogaps is in ...wow . kevin will be in work nude tommorrow.

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