dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Verbatim that would be a solid advisory or borderline warning event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 In N Ctrl CT, a balding man is twitching in his sleep Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like it taps some of the precip coming up from the south as well Fun to look at, but unfortunately it's 72hr+ NAM trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Just eyeballing the 00z NAM's synoptic intervals ...estimate about .4 to .5 liq equiv passes through the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Fun to look at, but unfortunately it's 72hr+ NAM trash. It is, But its another model taking a side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A big snow is not likely, but snow on Friday is not as far fetched as some are making out. I think a shot for some snow is likely, but the intensity is obviously up in the air. I agree Scott. This could be a case where a "benign" looking pattern over achieves somewhat. Small scale features (trough) and other thermal, moisture and wind elements come together in just the right amts both time and place to yield an accumulating snow fall of light to moderate intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 "coastal" would be a miss on this run of the NAM, not that it matters as the northern system is robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 In N Ctrl CT, a balding man is twitching in his sleep Baby steps. :-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not sure we really want the NAM with its track record as of late... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I really don't see how anyone other than Eastern Maine gets rocked with the coastal redevelopment. And even that is only because eastern Maine goes on forever! \ Even if the NAM is right WRN New England is dryslotted by 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I fly to MCO for work Wed and return to MHT Friday. I fully expect enough snow to give me flight headaches. So now you may understand the experiences of the weenie business traveler. Welcome to mine, Jerry and Mike's private pain. I hope you are coming home early on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i know most here probably know this: 0z NAM not a "coastal" thru 84h... just a much stronger northern stream shortwave, and very different synoptic evolution compared to Euro... in contrast to Euro, not much interaction with southern stream, at least thru 84h... end result a more potent shortwave "compensates" for lack of any phase, so we get something in sensible weather, but it's not the coastal Euro was showing (edit: an echo of Rollo's post) (edit: the differences in NAM compared to previous NAM runs are obvious in first 36 hrs in handling of vorticity off northern Pacific coast... spits out more potent energy into northern stream... don't know how this unfolds, but regardless it's not really a step towards the Euro evolution) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 i know most here probably know this: 0z NAM not a "coastal" thru 84h... just a much stronger northern stream shortwave, and very different synoptic evolution compared to Euro... in contrast to Euro, not much interaction with southern stream, at least thru 84h... end result a more potent shortwave "compensates" for lack of any phase, so we get something in sensible weather, but it's not the coastal Euro was showing That was already mentioned earlier that northern stream s/w was more potent and that we would still see sow from this phase or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i know most here probably know this: 0z NAM not a "coastal" thru 84h... just a much stronger northern stream shortwave, and very different synoptic evolution compared to Euro... in contrast to Euro, not much interaction with southern stream, at least thru 84h... end result a more potent shortwave "compensates" for lack of any phase, so we get something in sensible weather, but it's not the coastal Euro was showing (edit: an echo of Rollo's post) This isn't entirely true - there really is only one difference between this run and these Euro's, and it's in the southern stream. The Euro is insisting on enough southern stream impulse to induce a coastal along the Carolinas, that is then captured by the N stream ...phasing/bombing upon exit, but fast enough to clip the area. If even a slightly more robust southern stream impulse is introduced to this NAM solution, given the other paramters in play it would be almost identical to the Euro. It's just missing the southern stream intensity - or the Euro is over-zealous. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This isn't entirely true - there really is only one difference between this run and these Euro's, and it's in the southern stream. The Euro is insisting on enough southern stream impulse to induce a coastal along the Carolinas, that is then captured by the N stream ...phasing/bombing upon exit, but fast enough to clip the area. If even a slightly more robust southern stream impulse is introduced to this NAM solution, given the other paramters in play it would be almost identical to the Euro. It's just missing the southern stream intensity - or the Euro is over-zealous. One or the other. IMO we need more digging and even more robust N'rn stream to phase with the the south one. EC appears to be doing the opposite forcing S'rn stream into a phase with the N'rn stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So now you may understand the experiences of the weenie business traveler. Welcome to mine, Jerry and Mike's private pain. I hope you are coming home early on Friday. I'm guessing not, but I don't have the details yet...otherwise I'd be back Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This isn't entirely true - there really is only one difference between this run and these Euro's, and it's in the southern stream. The Euro is insisting on enough southern stream impulse to induce a coastal along the Carolinas, that is then captured by the N stream ...phasing/bombing upon exit, but fast enough to clip the area. If even a slightly more robust southern stream impulse is introduced to this NAM solution, given the other paramters in play it would be almost identical to the Euro. It's just missing the southern stream intensity - or the Euro is over-zealous. One or the other. Agree... was about to post that it would be nice to inject Euro type southern stream energy into this 0Z NAM run, and we have a different beast entirely, phase, coastal, etc... Right now Euro seems to be alone with intensity of southern stream energy... I remain skeptical (now watch 0z GFS spit out a technical bomb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah the NAM is definitely able to tap into a better moisture source from the south on this run, regardless of how weak the southern stream impulse is...I know its the 72+ hr NAM, but I take this as a very positive run to see it support some semblance of a higher precip event like the euro shows. I'm going to be in hunter for this one so I'm really pulling for it. Not too much hope for the coastal plain on this one at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What time do the 00z Ukie and GGEM usually start coming out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is probably gonna look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 well the nam would be rain it looks like for alot of sne. i'm not sure -3c 850's is gonna get it done for a large part of sne not elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Much better improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 well the nam would be rain it looks like for alot of sne. i'm not sure -3c 850's is gonna get it done for a large part of sne not elevated. Who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is probably gonna look better. Buying a ticket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Buying a ticket Phil may have to pick me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i'm not sure -3c 850's is gonna get it done for a large part of sne not elevated. Look for the -8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The GFS looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Wow, completely different than 18z... hello storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Well here's the 00z run that I wanted to see and reason why you shouldn't throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Phil sticking to his guns FTW possibly. However there is still a lot of time left. Wonder what the euro does...watch it go OTS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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