dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ECENS is run HIGH resolution like OP is. GEFS is NOT run HIGH resolotion The EC op still has a higher resolution than the ens I believe though. I'm not implying that the ens are low resolution...just relatively lower than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I've had my fill of C-2" events that have generally been overpredicted underperformers. I don't think this one has a shot, and I'm sticking with that to the bitter end like the Reverend up on the mountain does. I expect the GFS etc will come north some but that in the end the storm will follow the same type of offshore track we've seen countless times although I would not be surprised to see another model throw the random left hooking storm that always seems to happen this winter. First of the 0z models is off and running. well at least the gfs has an longer duration precip event , like the met above mentioned (pseudo inv norlun trough) so even if phase doesn't occur perhaps we can still get advisory, instead of the usual c-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 well at least the gfs has an longer duration precip event , like the met above mentioned (pseudo inv norlun trough) so even if phase doesn't occur perhaps we can still get advisory, instead of the usual c-2? Would an advisory be issued for 3-4" over 36 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Would an advisory be issued for 3-4" over 36 hours? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_9qewbg.gif hrs 84-90 , that drops decent qpf for a 6hr spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 well at least the gfs has an longer duration precip event , like the met above mentioned (pseudo inv norlun trough) so even if phase doesn't occur perhaps we can still get advisory, instead of the usual c-2? I'm speaking specifically of the coastal...clearly there's a northern stream system coming across. but the thread title ponders the question of whether or not we "get" a coastal and I think in the pure sense the answer is likely no. Always the chance the non-Euro models are totally wrong...but it just seems like we've seen these more amped solutions multiple times from the offending models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The EC op still has a higher resolution than the ens I believe though. I'm not implying that the ens are low resolution...just relatively lower than the op. Perhaps. I might be wrong but I remember from a local NWS conference presentation on ensemble forecasting it was stated that ECENS like OP was run HIGH res. Then again we're both saying the same thing sort of. LOL - now you have me checking out the resolutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The EC op still has a higher resolution than the ens I believe though. I'm not implying that the ens are low resolution...just relatively lower than the op. GFS op is T574 EC op T1279 GEFS T254 thru 192hr...then T190 thru 384hr ECENS T639 thru d10...then T319 thru d15 So basically the EC ens have a higher resolution than even the GFS op, but the EC op has twice the horizontal res of its ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Would an advisory be issued for 3-4" over 36 hours? 3-4" over 36 hours from an *psuedo* inverted norlun, Ray will be pleased. My imagination is running wild with what exactly a pseudo inverted norlun would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm speaking specifically of the coastal...clearly there's a northern stream system coming across. but the thread title ponders the question of whether or not we "get" a coastal and I think in the pure sense the answer is likely no. Always the chance the non-Euro models are totally wrong...but it just seems like we've seen these more amped solutions multiple times from the offending models. The big difference (and Will and others have mentioned this) is the Euro has been doing this for four runs (I had thought 5). That has not been the case earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 well at least the gfs has an longer duration precip event , like the met above mentioned (pseudo inv norlun trough) so even if phase doesn't occur perhaps we can still get advisory, instead of the usual c-2? Dropped close to .50" over the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 scott the ens (basic MSLP) looks pretty far east wrt to track, how is that better( was 0z wayyy east) I can throw out weenie d5 QPF totals too to give an idea of the shifts. I'll describe the 0.50" contour for 48hr QPF valid 00z Sunday. 00z op: CAR-YSC-MPV-ALB 12z op: CAR-YUL-MSS-LEB-ORH-GON 00z en: EPO 12z en: HUL-GNR-PWM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS op is T574 EC op T1279 GEFS T254 thru 192hr...then T190 thru 384hr ECENS T639 thru d10...then T319 thru d15 So basically the EC ens have a higher resolution than even the GFS op, but the EC op has twice the horizontal res of its ens. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Dropped close to .50" over the period GFS also has an OVER forecast bias on QPF "into" colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS also has an OVER forecast bias on QPF "into" colder air. The model does not already take that into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The model does not already take that into account? How can it? The computer model(s) do not auto-correct their forecast out put. Models have what are called systematic errors which can either be corrected by "man" and/or SREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 i love that gradient of temps from N maine to SE VA coast next several days about 28-30 C worth. Not that it means a whole lot. more just wow at the cold air just over the border this week You mean F I hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Part of me agrees with Phil though, the euro may be seeing something even in this hostile pattern. I'm not too quick to dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You mean F I hope... Well, could be 70F temp diff between N Maine at night (-8 in spots tonight, maybe colder) to 62F near Virginia Beach Tuesday... Not quite 28-30C, but not too far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Part of me agrees with Phil though, the euro may be seeing something even in this hostile pattern. I'm not too quick to dismiss it. Search your feelings Luke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Search your feelings Luke A big snow is not likely, but snow on Friday is not as far fetched as some are making out. I think a shot for some snow is likely, but the intensity is obviously up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A big snow is not likely, but snow on Friday is not as far fetched as some are making out. I think a shot for some snow is likely, but the intensity is obviously up in the air. I fly to MCO for work Wed and return to MHT Friday. I fully expect enough snow to give me flight headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A big snow is not likely, but snow on Friday is not as far fetched as some are making out. I think a shot for some snow is likely, but the intensity is obviously up in the air. A big snow is not likely, but snow on Friday is not as far fetched as some are making out. I think a shot for some snow is likely, but the intensity is obviously up in the air. I think it'd snow some even if the coastal misses by 500 miles. A couple of times this winter when we've thought that a model camp should be tossed because of consistent errors - the SREFs/NAM for instance with that system a week or so ago when they were always offshore, the Euro when everyone kept saying go with the mesos on the inverted miss etc.... the models toss us a curveball. I'll take more interest in this in a day or two, but there hasn't been a model we could ride the entire winter and this may be another one of those cases. The Euro/UK have overdeveloped just about every low all winter but it doesn't mean that's what's happening this time. EDIT: Also don't forget, it's opposite KURO year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 0z nam looks like it may be buying a ticket....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 0z nam looks like it may be buying a ticket....... A trend in the right direction. We have 1 weenie SREF member on-board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 does appear that way. early start. 0z nam looks like it may be buying a ticket....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 A trend in the right direction. We have 1 weenie SREF member on-board too. Oh boy........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That nrn stream s/w is much more potent this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 That nrn stream s/w is much more potent this run. Looks like it taps some of the precip coming up from the south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 00z NAM is coming in slightly more amped in the 500mb fields, and is reflected in a surface scenario at hour 69 that is very Euro looking. As is, it already appears it couldn't really get the GL S/W through without measurable snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM looks interesting. Really potent northern stream. Nice overrunning snows it seems with the coastal developing. Will need to wait until Wednesday to take anything seriously though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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