Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Some ggem ens members support the general idea of something decent nearby - some pretty strong ones there but ggem ens always has a few weenie members:

[ORH_wxman]

I'm definitely not sold on this one, but seeing the Euro do it 4 runs in a row is pretty interesting. On its other fantasy storms, it was usually only 1 or 2 runs.

[joey2002]

Anyone know if Noyes is from CT?

 

Haverhill, Mass... why?

[N. OF PIKE]

It is still a good Cape pattern... could definitely see something clipping you guys.  I still see no reason to really deviate from a compromise and late bloomer that could scrape by before blowing out to sea.  No real blocking or anything to stop it from escaping east.

I'd think if we had blocking the last two weeks, things could have been real fun, but i don't have an excellent understanding. NAO is falling one s.d next day or so and AO more but meh.

[joey2002]

I'm definitely not sold on this one, but seeing the Euro do it 4 runs in a row is pretty interesting. On its other fantasy storms, it was usually only 1 or 2 runs.

 

Yeah, the Euro is often wrong, but not usually consistency wrong.  Puzzling.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don't get sucked in . There's a reason the Euro continues massive shifts east..One more east shift takes most out of game

[wxsniss]

Heh...I'm not sure the last time I've seen the op and ens mean that far apart at d5. Looks like the op's occasional overamped cyclogenesis woes continue.

 

 

Technical question for anyone re: OP run vs. ensembles on GFS and Euro:

We saw today's Euro 0z throw up a deep coastal when the ensemble mean gave no support (to a less extent, same at 12z).

 

Is it possible for  the operational run to have a solution that is not supported by a single ensemble member (or maybe it is... I don't have access to the individual members)? 

 

Not asking about Friday, just curious about how these are programmed in general.

Re: Friday, as I posted last night, I remain skeptical the southern stream conjures up something big enough to put a kink in the still fast h5 flow Friday.

 

 

(and love how inevitably these threads become a Jerry Springer lite)

[joey2002]

Don't get sucked in . There's a reason the Euro continues massive shifts east..One more east shift takes most out of game

 

Have they really been that massive of shifts considering the time range?

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, the Euro is often wrong, but not usually consistency wrong. Puzzling.

That's what makes me go hmm and the fact the ensemble got a bit better. The gfs also tries to hint at something at least a bit more interesting too. Personally I would like to see the GEFS at least show members that are amped up before getting terribly excited. We'll see what 00z brings. Certainly not a null threat.

[N. OF PIKE]

scott the ens (basic MSLP) looks pretty far east wrt to track, how is that better( was 0z wayyy east)

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Even the DGEX is still a miss.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

 

 

And the KMA too, JB's favorite model.  It really is just the Euro/ENS and the UK that make it interesting for now.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

scott the ens (basic MSLP) looks pretty far east wrt to track, how is that better( was 0z wayyy east)

 

Euro ENS for one would probably have some good OES potential. 

[N. OF PIKE]

Euro ENS for one would probably have some good OES potential. 

on the one hand i enjoyed yesterday's OES enhancement, on the other hand it snowed for 14-16 hrs straight and i got a little over an inch. the flake size was good, but visibility never went below 2 miles, except for a 20 min period around 1130 am when we had some 20 dbz echos.

 

was the jan 05 blizzard a big OES enhancement deal, i know areas within 10 - miles of the coast in NE mass saw about 30 inches from cambridge to N andover, but i would love to see a radar loop of that storm

[Chrisrotary12]

I'm definitely not sold on this one, but seeing the Euro do it 4 runs in a row is pretty interesting. On its other fantasy storms, it was usually only 1 or 2 runs.

 

Sticking with the train theme.  I'm not sold on this one, but I am in the station.  I can hear the trains coming; I just can't decide which train to by a ticket for.  

 

It is interesting that the Euro has had this idea for 4 runs in a row.  I wish I could see the Ensembles.  I mean more than just the 24 hour images. 

 

Would really do us some good to have another piece of guidance jump on board, or possible buy a ticket and wait on the platform as some would say.

 

Am I missing something?  Blizz is down on this storm?  And not calling for 15-20" with lollies of 24"+?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

on the one hand i enjoyed yesterday's OES enhancement, on the other hand it snowed for 14-16 hrs straight and i got a little over an inch. the flake size was good, but visibility never went below 2 miles, except for a 20 min period around 1130 am when we had some 20 dbz echos.

 

was the jan 05 blizzard a big OES enhancement deal, i know areas within 10 - miles of the coast in NE mass saw about 30 inches from cambridge to N andover, but i would love to see a radar loop of that storm

 

OT but that was a really weak 'OES' situation.  Lots of other factors at play.  Winds never really got cranking and surface winds fought what tried to happen later tooth and nail.  Nice NE winds from the surface up through 8h would be a pleasant change.  Euro kind of has that look with the high west and low east.  

 

Models will compromise, question is which one is the dom.

[Wx4cast]

Well IMO the EC has been far from Godlike this winter. Most of the models can stake a claim to having nailed an event or two this winter when the other ones didn't.

 

Take last weeks cold fropa preceded by the torch. GFS did the best on both timing, wind, CAA, etc.

 

The EC has been trending east on this upcoming end of the weak event and it does have a tendency to over develop/phase EC cyclones in general. 

 

Still it is not something to blow off but I think the odds of an EC verification and big storm are low at this point in time

 

Just my .02 cents

[dryslot]

Have they really been that massive of shifts considering the time range?

 

 

Not really, It probably was a 50-75 mile shift from 0z

[HoarfrostHubb]

Well IMO the EC has been far from Godlike this winter. Most of the models can stake a claim to having nailed an event or two this winter when the other ones didn't.

Take last weeks cold fropa preceded by the torch. GFS did the best on both timing, wind, CAA, etc.

The EC has been trending east on this upcoming end of the weak event and it does have a tendency to over develop/phase EC cyclones in general.

Still it is not something to blow off but I think the odds of an EC verification and big storm are low at this point in time

Just my .02 cents

Def some concerns...One more Euro run, but I think most.of SNE gets at least a bit of snow

[Ginx snewx]

Well IMO the EC has been far from Godlike this winter. Most of the models can stake a claim to having nailed an event or two this winter when the other ones didn't.

 

Take last weeks cold fropa preceded by the torch. GFS did the best on both timing, wind, CAA, etc.

 

The EC has been trending east on this upcoming end of the weak event and it does have a tendency to over develop/phase EC cyclones in general. 

 

Still it is not something to blow off but I think the odds of an EC verification and big storm are low at this point in time

 

Just my .02 cents

if its 72 placement by OP and ENS is correct there is snow breaking out well ahead of the coastal. Nice high and nice inflow

[Ginx snewx]

Not really, It probably was a 50-75 mile shift from 0z

Any other time that would be a noise signal now it's a massive shift.

[N. OF PIKE]

i love that gradient of temps from N maine to SE VA coast next several days about 28-30 C worth. Not that it means a whole lot. more just wow at the cold air just over the border this week

[dryslot]

Any other time that would be a noise signal now it's a massive shift.

 

 

lol, We have seen some 500 mile swings this year in a run or 2

[Clinch Leatherwood]

lol, We have seen some 500 mile swings this year in a run or 2

We have.  Inside of 60-72 hours the Euro came north 700 miles on one of the Cape scrappers but it was following the other models which had moved north gradually ahead of it.  JMHO, I just don't see how things get as far north based on the pattern but I admit I haven't followed this week very closely because my interest in small events is waning.

[N. OF PIKE]

We have.  Inside of 60-72 hours the Euro came north 700 miles on one of the Cape scrappers but it was following the other models which had moved north gradually ahead of it.  JMHO, I just don't see how things get as far north based on the pattern but I admit I haven't followed this week very closely because my interest in small events is waning.

the over under on posts from you from thur am to 2 am saturday is currently 150.

[CoastalWx]

Pickles 12z was definitely better than 00z but not suggesting anything more than that.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

the over under on posts from you from thur am to 2 am saturday is currently 150.

 

I've had my fill of C-2" events that have generally been overpredicted underperformers.   I don't think this one has a shot, and I'm sticking with that to the bitter end like the Reverend up on the mountain does.

I expect the GFS etc will come north some but that in the end the storm will follow the same type of offshore track we've seen countless times although I would not be surprised to see another model throw the random left hooking storm that always seems to happen this winter.

 

First of the 0z models is off and running.

[dendrite]

Technical question for anyone re: OP run vs. ensembles on GFS and Euro:

We saw today's Euro 0z throw up a deep coastal when the ensemble mean gave no support (to a less extent, same at 12z).

 

Is it possible for  the operational run to have a solution that is not supported by a single ensemble member (or maybe it is... I don't have access to the individual members)? 

 

Not asking about Friday, just curious about how these are programmed in general.

Re: Friday, as I posted last night, I remain skeptical the southern stream conjures up something big enough to put a kink in the still fast h5 flow Friday.

 

 

(and love how inevitably these threads become a Jerry Springer lite)

The EC ens have 51 members. 1 member is the control prog. It is run from the analysis of the operational run. The other 50 have perturbations from the control analysis. If it works like the GEFS, the EC op and EC ens control can become drastically different with increasing time. Part of this is because the op is run with a slightly higher resolution than the ens. So technically it should be possible to have the op be an absolute extreme compared to its ens members. I think I've seen it happen a couple times this winter when the op pulls one of those random overamped runs out of its hat. I can see the ec ens mean QPF and in those cases the op can be dropping 1"+ liquid over us while the ens are a widespread area of 0.05"-0.10" or something.

[Wx4cast]

Def some concerns...One more Euro run, but I think most.of SNE gets at least a bit of snow

 

I agree not saying NO snow

 

if its 72 placement by OP and ENS is correct there is snow breaking out well ahead of the coastal. Nice high and nice inflow

 

Almost an inverted pseudo NORLUN type trough perhaps (like the GFS is indicating, I might add)

[Wx4cast]

The EC ens have 51 members. 1 member is the control prog. It is run from the analysis of the operational run. The other 50 have perturbations from the control analysis. If it works like the GEFS, the EC op and EC ens control can become drastically different with increasing time. Part of this is because the op is run with a slightly higher resolution than the ens. So technically it should be possible to have the op be an absolute extreme compared to its ens members. I think I've seen it happen a couple times this winter when the op pulls one of those random overamped runs out of its hat. I can see the ec ens mean QPF and in those cases the op can be dropping 1"+ liquid over us while the ens are a widespread area of 0.05"-0.10" or something.

ECENS is run HIGH resolution like OP is. GEFS is NOT run HIGH resolotion

[wxsniss]

The EC ens have 51 members. 1 member is the control prog. It is run from the analysis of the operational run. The other 50 have perturbations from the control analysis. If it works like the GEFS, the EC op and EC ens control can become drastically different with increasing time. Part of this is because the op is run with a slightly higher resolution than the ens. So technically it should be possible to have the op be an absolute extreme compared to its ens members. I think I've seen it happen a couple times this winter when the op pulls one of those random overamped runs out of its hat. I can see the ec ens mean QPF and in those cases the op can be dropping 1"+ liquid over us while the ens are a widespread area of 0.05"-0.10" or something.

 

thanks!