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Feb 8th-9th Do We Finally Get A Coastal?


dryslot

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KFS had it's moments late Dec/early Jan

Lately it has had data ingestion issues

 

If it is a snowy pattern, the naturally aggressive KFS will do much better.  It has a snow and cold bias for the most part.  So in those patterns it can be a useful tool.  Times like this where it doesn't really want to snow, not so much.  But someone must have made some adjustments because it is surprisingly not making a snowy forecast for late in the week.

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The funny thing is that Kevin wants you to give him props when his aggressive calls luck out, but then the 90% of the calls you make to downplay...which end up being right, go without kudos. He absolutely loathes when you downplay something and are right.

 

Its more about hype than forecasting.

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I will always look for a better option if I don't like an answer. It's just who I am,

I don't like Friday event at all. Euro had had massive shifts east the last 2 days. Nothing else gives anyone snow

And then tomorrow if the Euro crushes you, you will be singing a different tune. And that my friend isn't forecasting, it's hype and bandwaggoning. If you just agreed with popular opinion more often, I wouldn't be on your butt about it all the time.

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I think I'm almost on the storm train for this one. Bought my ticket... Just standing at the platform right now.

one office disco (may have been box) cited the AO drop around storm time as a reason euro may be right

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

i see the ao tanking in the next 24-36 hours but would that teleconnect to bring a favorable stormy period on the 8'th 9'th , i thought the drop would have to coincide with at least 48 hrs within storm?

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I think I'm almost on the storm train for this one. Bought my ticket... Just standing at the platform right now.

 

It is still a good Cape pattern... could definitely see something clipping you guys.  I still see no reason to really deviate from a compromise and late bloomer that could scrape by before blowing out to sea.  No real blocking or anything to stop it from escaping east.

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CC will take us all the way to flemish cap. Were not turning back till we swim nude in gulf stream and sacrifice a few weenies in it.

 

18z gefs have not one member on board for a phase, but that doesn't really mean to much, i've seen them flip pretty quickly. 5 phases in a row by the euro means something, but i THINK the most likely scenario is still a late phase and a euro shift another hundred miles east or so..

 

If bob takes over he'll be steering to retirement land in sfl , scooter will be driving to lake winni, and if i get the wheel were goin over the tobin.

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