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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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Thats defiinitely snow at 96 hours, regardless of what the Euro shows the 900-1000mb layer being you're never going to rain in February with that sort of setup with sub 0C 850 temps.

 

 

850's don't even go above zero for the entire storm for NYC. Like i said it's very close to being a snow bomb

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Thats defiinitely snow at 96 hours, regardless of what the Euro shows the 900-1000mb layer being you're never going to rain in February with that sort of setup with sub 0C 850 temps.

That dome of HP in southern Canada is the real deal and actually causes the storm to slow down, and pull away to the east. Could be fun for many if it happens

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Thats defiinitely snow at 96 hours, regardless of what the Euro shows the 900-1000mb layer being you're never going to rain in February with that sort of setup with sub 0C 850 temps.

 

Taking the model in a literal fashion (because we know it will verify perfectly ;) ), NYC seems like its on the dangerous fringe.  850's are very borderline since they're above -2C and surface temps are 38-39 through 18Z Friday then fall to around 35 by 0Z.  The heaviest precip is close but stays east so there's only 0.20" 12Z-18Z and 0.25" 18Z-0Z.  Taken literally, it could be wet non-sticking snow or rain-snow mix in the city and heavy puking slop snow on LI or just up the road in CT. (though 850's at ISP are just barely below 0C during most of it).

 

But again, that's taking this literally.  Which we know will work out just fine :lol:

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Taking the model in a literal fashion (because we know it will verify perfectly ;) ), NYC seems like its on the dangerous fringe.  850's are very borderline since they're above -2C and surface temps are 38-39 through 18Z Friday then fall to around 35 by 0Z.  The heaviest precip is close but stays east so there's only 0.20" 12Z-18Z and 0.25" 18Z-0Z.  Taken literally, it could be wet non-sticking snow or rain-snow mix in the city and heavy puking slop snow on LI or just up the road in CT. (though 850's at ISP are just barely below 0C during most of it).

 

But again, that's taking this literally.  Which we know will work out just fine :lol:

 

Should be interesting with the euro trending colder and transffering earlier now. Remember 36 hrs ago it showed all rain for everyone?

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Surface temps would probably verify a couple of degrees colder than what's being shown given the setup. However, there is still clearly a problem with that initial primary low. Fortunately ocean temperatures are colder this time of year, so it's not the same automatic kiss of death to have some warm, southerly flow from a primary, but it still throws a huge wrench into things.

 

However, we can hope that the 1038 high can be a bit more "stubborn" with low-level cold air -- or at the very least, provide a higher dewpoint depression for evaporational cooling purposes. Hopefully the primary won't throw too much of a wrench into that.

 

Also, the Euro definitely showed a trend to more quickly erode that primary into a stronger secondary, which becomes dominant and strengthens at a further south latitude than previous runs. Hopefully this trend continues. 

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Based on the posts I am reading (do not have the maps yet here), I would highly doubt surface temps would be as high as they are progged on those maps. When you have a strong high to the n/nw in the right position at this time of year, add a little dymanic cooling, and you're looking almost always at colder surface temperatures. I think the snow potential here could be under-estimated for a change.

WX/PT

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Based on the posts I am reading (do not have the maps yet here), I would highly doubt surface temps would be as high as they are progged on those maps. When you have a strong high to the n/nw in the right position at this time of year, add a little dymanic cooling, and you're looking almost always at colder surface temperatures. I think the snow potential here could be under-estimated for a change.

WX/PT

 

The HP is definitely trending stronger on the models and in an ideal spot. The transfer is going to be the key factor in whether or not we get into the ccb

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Based on the posts I am reading (do not have the maps yet here), I would highly doubt surface temps would be as high as they are progged on those maps. When you have a strong high to the n/nw in the right position at this time of year, add a little dymanic cooling, and you're looking almost always at colder surface temperatures. I think the snow potential here could be under-estimated for a change.

WX/PT

 

Agreed usually with strengthening coastals the temps are lower than forecasted vs higher than forcasted with less amped storms

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Surface temps would probably verify a couple of degrees colder than what's being shown given the setup. However, there is still clearly a problem with that initial primary low. Fortunately ocean temperatures are colder this time of year, so it's not the same automatic kiss of death to have some warm, southerly flow from a primary, but it still throws a huge wrench into things.

 

However, we can hope that the 1038 high can be a bit more "stubborn" with low-level cold air -- or at the very least, provide a higher dewpoint depression for evaporational cooling purposes. Hopefully the primary won't throw too much of a wrench into that.

 

Also, the Euro definitely showed a trend to more quickly erode that primary into a stronger secondary, which becomes dominant and strengthens at a further south latitude than previous runs. Hopefully this trend continues. 

We are on a similar trend of thought about this, but your post threw me a flashback to a situation (analog if you will) I think may have been very similar if I recall correctly and it ended up quite a snowy one--The Mayor Lindsay storm of 1969. I believe we could start out with light se-erly winds and 38/39 degrees Thursday midnight-2am and as winds back around to n-ne Friday morning do quite well with temps falling through the 30s.

WX/PT

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Taking the model in a literal fashion (because we know it will verify perfectly ;) ), NYC seems like its on the dangerous fringe.  850's are very borderline since they're above -2C and surface temps are 38-39 through 18Z Friday then fall to around 35 by 0Z.  The heaviest precip is close but stays east so there's only 0.20" 12Z-18Z and 0.25" 18Z-0Z.  Taken literally, it could be wet non-sticking snow or rain-snow mix in the city and heavy puking slop snow on LI or just up the road in CT. (though 850's at ISP are just barely below 0C during most of it).

 

But again, that's taking this literally.  Which we know will work out just fine :lol:

 

Yeah. Looking at WU, this looks a little too late for NYC and Western LI. By the time winds turn NE, the most of it is done. Eastern LI gets under the CCB though.

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Another point about QPF in this situation. Amounts could be underdone if the characters play out as the ECMWF has been forecasting. The only thing that could hold them down would be the lack of blocking and a very fast moving storm. If the maps remain consistent, I would expect QPF numbers to go up for the NYC Metro Region and NJ.

WX/PT

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Not sure I would believe this is going to stall. I don't really see why it would--at this point.

WX/PT

 

It doesn't stall, not sure what that post was about. H5 just closes off in an ideal position for boston which is why the ccb just hammers them

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Almost a rockies cutter at 144 though lol.

 

Jesus. Fresh miller A coming out of the gulf at hr 222  :lmao:

We're getting into a whole new pattern! We may erase some of the seasonal snow deficits over the next two months if the increasingly active subtropical jet performs well for us.

WX/PT

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The Euro Control run just came out and has this thing developing a bit faster, as a 990mb about 125 miles off the coast of NJ and it keeps NYC 850's below freezing the whole time as it wraps up to a 980 near the Benchmark with the 1 inch precip line running back to Bergen County and coastal NJ and 1.25-1.50 in NYC and the 2-3 inch line from JFK eastward.  I am talking liquid equiv.

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