CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 LOL so even when get a very good track. we're gonna rain. Mother nature be trollin Most likely there won't be a good track as there is limited support for a coastal storm from the models and the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like the GFS is moving towards the Euro on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 84 low over hse. 540 line just north of Phl. Surface just nw of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ECMWF wins again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr. 90 looks to be a late capture. NYC is very close to snow, just nw is def all frozen. 540 line goes through edison, surface just north of nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ECMWF wins again Euro seems to do well with miller a storms compared to northern stream systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Still not there yet but it made a big step towards the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Rain... areas north of NYC stay snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 96 1008 is way se of euro. But it's interaction with northern stream give the nw crew and sne a good amount of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS gives us very light snow to end it. Still could change a lot. You never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 96 1008 is way se of euro. But it's interaction with northern stream give the nw crew and sne a good amount of snow Starts as snow. Lets see the next few runs. Nice looking high to our north Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Look at the trend, compare it to the ECMWF, I do see some potential. Thou at this time I would say 40% chance of snow , 40% chance for rain and 20% chance for snow to ice. Subject to major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Starts as snow. Lets see the next few runs. Nice looking high to our north Rossi Mostly rain for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 A somewhat stronger low would pull in the cold air, which is sitting just to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Look at the trend, compare it to the ECMWF, I do see some potential. Thou at this time I would say 40% chance of snow , 40% chance for rain and 20% chance for snow to ice. Subject to major changes. Shouldn't the high to our north at least help keep some of the cold locked in? Or would it slide away to quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 After your analysis of the euro this afternoon if I was you I wouldn't be analyzing anything Rossi It is rain though. The freezing line is north of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Shouldn't the high to our north at least help keep some of the cold locked in? Or would it slide away to quickly? It may allow for more overrunning snows initially, but the positioning of the high is just not ideal in this setup unless you've just got a weak disturbance at 500mb ejecting from the south...this is not that different a setup from PDII except that the surface low is too strong and forces too much of an ESE gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It may allow for more overrunning snows initially, but the positioning of the high is just not ideal in this setup unless you've just got a weak disturbance at 500mb ejecting from the south...this is not that different a setup from PDII except that the surface low is too strong and forces too much of an ESE gradient. Ya, looks too far north and east. The surface at hour 60/66 looks falsely amazing though. Cold high to the north, storm moving NE out of the gulf? Sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ukie from the SNE thread http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grb-comp.cgi?re=us&mo=ukmet&va=csfcpr&ft=h72&cu=latest≥=800x630&ti=UTC&id=&zoom=.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What? The high pressure to the north and it's orientation is not the real problem especially given our Feb. climo. There are certain levels that everyone (amateurs and pros alike) should look at before posting. The simple answer to the warmth on this run and the quickly retreating cold is placement of the 850 mb low. It goes over Rochester! You don't get snow when a closed 850 mb low heads over upstate NY. Will this change? Probably. In fact, the GFS opens it up (albeit it, late in the game) and it too transfers to the coast. The GFS attempts to pop a TN low, but it quickly transfers the energy to the coast. This is more of a Miller B than a Miller A. In any case, we have made progress, but we're far from the eventual outcome. It may allow for more overrunning snows initially, but the positioning of the high is just not ideal in this setup unless you've just got a weak disturbance at 500mb ejecting from the south...this is not that different a setup from PDII except that the surface low is too strong and forces too much of an ESE gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What? The high pressure to the north and it's orientation is not the real problem especially given our Feb. climo. There are certain levels that everyone (amateurs and pros alike) should look at before posting. The simple answer to the warmth on this run and the quickly retreating cold is placement of the 850 mb low. It goes over Rochester! You don't get snow when a closed 850 mb low heads over upstate NY. Will this change? Probably. In fact, the GFS opens it up (albeit it, late in the game) and it too transfers to the coast. The GFS attempts to pop a TN low, but it quickly transfers the energy to the coast. This is more of a Miller B than a Miller A. In any case, we have made progress, but we're far from the eventual outcome. it is hard to believe (well not in '12-'13) that with the orientation of that high in SE Canada and it being the beginning of Feb that we wouldnt be in line for at least some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I agree and hence, I am not taking this idea of the 850 mb low hanging out over Upstate NY and transferring several hundred miles SE in a 6 hour span to the Delmarva. I just don't buy it. NAM and UKMET (crap) are both taking a more potent system in the OH Valley with a very late, almost non-existent transfer. it is hard to believe (well not in '12-'13) that with the orientation of that high in SE Canada and it being the beginning of Feb that we wouldnt be in line for at least some snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 After your analysis of the euro this afternoon if I was you I wouldn't be analyzing anything Rossi agree - is snow88 a member of the rossi posse ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro is colder, 996mb on the benchmark. Rain to snow is my guess here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro is colder, 996mb on the benchmark. Rain to snow is my guess here Interesting turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets absolutely hammered wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets absolutely hammered wow! I don't have QPF access now, up and down the line please. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't have QPF access now, up and down the line please. Lol. Boston gets 2.5" of liquid and it looks like all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Boston gets 2.5" of liquid and it looks like all snow run. What are we looking at frozen here? looks like it would be ripping at 96... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 run. What are we looking at frozen here? looks like it would be ripping at 96... Thats defiinitely snow at 96 hours, regardless of what the Euro shows the 900-1000mb layer being you're never going to rain in February with that sort of setup with sub 0C 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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