MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro isn't giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 998 inside hse at 96hrs. 850's through Phl. Looks like rain to start. Surface north of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 998 inside hse at 96hrs. 850's through Phl. Looks like rain to start. Surface north of city It's colder on this run compared to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hr 102 rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 998 inside hse at 96hrs. 850's through Phl. Looks like rain to start. Surface north of city Snow88 -Snowing in NYC at hour 96. Storm is phased on the Euro. Someone is incorrect??? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hr 108 temps crash but too little to late. It's se of last nights run. Nice track, but the air mass in place will not get it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Allentown to hartford and points north , looks very nice so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Snow88 -Snowing in NYC at hour 96. Storm is phased on the Euro. Someone is incorrect??? Rossi It's rain Rossi. We don't see any snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Snow88 -Snowing in NYC at hour 96. Storm is phased on the Euro. Someone is incorrect??? Rossi Def not our storm brother . Gotta be NW for this one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 if it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Keeps trending further SE though. We are not done with this just yet. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Keeps trending further SE though. We are not done with this just yet. Keep hope alive. it can trend to bermuda and it would still be rain given that setup. When you have a northern low cutting across northern nys its very unlikely a snowstortm will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Hi all, this is my first post, and unfornately not an optimistic one for friday's storm. This looks to be a rainstorm only for NYC and even areas immediately north and west (rockland, westchester and bergen) counties. Those counties may start off as snow on thurday night, but even they go over to just plain rain as surface temps approach 40 degrees. This is a wintry/snow event for areas over 50 miles north and west of NYC. Definately does not look to be a NYC metro area snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 12z Euro shows a latter phase. It's actually less amplified than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 it can trend to bermuda and it would still be rain given that setup. When you have a northern low cutting across northern nys its very unlikely a snowstortm will happen Yeh Mid levels warm , so even to the BM . you get easterly flow and the column is disrupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 if it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing? Posts like this are exactly why our subforum is frowned on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yeh Mid levels warm , so even to the BM . you get easterly flow and the column is disrupted. the northern low would bring southerly winds. Till that coastal fully takes over, that would be when the winds switch to northeast or northerly component, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the northern low would bring southerly winds. Till that coastal fully takes over, that would be when the winds switch to northeast or northerly component, My argument is , that once the max passes to my south and east , and i get backed around , the precip is just about gone . So its a below normal feb day temps wise , with a storm running to the BM and I still rain . happens . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1001 AM EST MON FEB 04 2013 VALID 12Z THU FEB 07 2013 - 12Z MON FEB 11 2013 RELIED ON THE 04/00Z ECENS MEAN FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FRONTS AND PRESSURES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR FOUR MODEL CYCLES NOW WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES--QUITE PREPOSSESSING FOR THE OUTCOME OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF THE NATION. ALONG THE EAST COAST, THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE WAVE EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC DAY 4. THE 00Z/04 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF BUCKED THE TREND OF ITS ATTENDANT MEANS WITH A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE DELMARVA PENINSULA--A STRONG STRIKE AGAINST THAT MODEL. FURTHERMORE, THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE DAY 4 WAVE, WITH NO DIRECT SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, REGROUPING OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY DAYS 6 AND 7. NO SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC OUTBREAKS ARE INDICATED THIS PERIOD, SO SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 My argument is , that once the max passes to my south and east , and i get backed around , the precip is just about gone . So its a below normal feb day temps wise , with a storm running to the BM and I still rain . happens . I think we need to see the ensemble means as to position. This tends to be much more accurate overall. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro has a perfect track and its still rain. Terrible setup and unlikely to occur like the euro anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro has a perfect track and its still rain. Terrible setup and unlikely to occur like the euro anyway Ukie is similiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro has a perfect track and its still rain. Terrible setup and unlikely to occur like the euro anyway Agreed. This is a rain event, unfortunately. Even the suburbs north and west of the city, may start as snow briefly, but it will go over to plain rain there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Where does dt say rain to snow for NYC in that post on facebook? I just read the topic and all the comments and did not see him say rain to snow for NYC anywhere. edit: in fact, he said rain for all of new jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Where does dt say rain to snow for NYC in that post on facebook? I just read the topic and all the comments and did not see him say rain to snow for NYC anywhere. edit: in fact, he said rain for all of new jersey I deleted my post. I misread his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Where does dt say rain to snow for NYC in that post on facebook? I just read the topic and all the comments and did not see him say rain to snow for NYC anywhere. edit: in fact, he said rain for all of new jersey i think he replied to someone's question: Kenneth Rosenberg what about nyc northern suburbs? Like · Reply · 1 · about an hour ago Hide 2 Replies Wxrisk.com rain that goes over to snow... still tricky there but they are talking about the suburbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Where does dt say rain to snow for NYC in that post on facebook? I just read the topic and all the comments and did not see him say rain to snow for NYC anywhere. edit: in fact, he said rain for all of new jersey In actual fact he said rain for "most of PA NJ" (that is if he was implying most of Penn AND NJ). If the northern burbs of NYC get rain to snow, that would include NNJ (Passaic, Bergen, Hudson). Not putting words into his mouth, but that's how I (and I think most people would) interpret as the northern suburbs of NYC. Wxrisk.com RAIN for all of VA MD DEL WAV most of PA NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If the low tracks from HSE to southeast of the benchmark, there'll probably be some snow for portions of the region. We don't usually see a lot of boundary layer issues in early February, and this has been a solidly cold week with below freezing highs and lows in the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 LOL so even when get a very good track. we're gonna rain. Mother nature be trollin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Don't be jealous, I'm sitting at nearly 20" so far on the season. Bridgeport, CT...out on Long Island Sound...has more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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