Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS is very suppressed, OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 GFS is very suppressed, OTS. The GFS loves to take southern branch energy and rush it out. Just watch the euro for guidance on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 According to a met in the New England forum the Euro ensembles did not match the op. Can we confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 A) Posting the UKMET is useless. This model has lost all credibility this winter. For the I-95, having a SLP over OH is almost never a good thing. Yes but a 1035 High in a good position. Is that not overrunning over a strong cold feed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm not buying it at all sorry. I'm going with the gfs all the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 According to a met in the New England forum the Euro ensembles did not match the op. Can we confirm this? Yes, the Euro ensemble mean is much weaker and further south, than the op Euro below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 No Greenland/Davis Strait Block and the big ULL over West coast, generally doesn't support the idea of a major storm along the East coast. Also, the poor antecedent airmass suggests precip type issues, with even weaker, father south or unphased scenerio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 FWIW the HPC likes the UKMET/ECMWF scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 FWIW the HPC likes the UKMET/ECMWF scenario The UKMET has the the more northerly solution like Euro ensembles with a suppressed southern stream. There is a warm antecedent airmass at the coast with a SE flow ahead of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I think tonight's clipper could get interesting for north central nj and Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 000FXUS61 KOKX 041149AFDOKXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY649 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACKS TOWARDS THE REGIONTODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURESETS UP NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILLIMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BYCANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS HIGHSLOWLY RETREATS TO OUR NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS ACOASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAYMORNING...THEN TRACKS TO EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHPRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THENSLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...MINOR CHANGES MADE IN HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS INOBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.BREEZY WNW FLOW WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT RESULTING IN POTENTIALGUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. DRYPUSH OF AIR WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS FORMOST OF THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE W BY THISEVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. TEMPERATURESGENERALLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING TODAY...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OFGUIDANCE.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...MAIN SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WEAK LOW WHICH WAS ANALYZEDOVER N CENTRAL IA AT 6Z. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL PLACED THE LOWSLIGHTLY SW OF THIS POSITION...NEAR OMAHA. THE GFS AND NAM BOTHBRING A DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE CWA TONIGHT...WHEREAS THE ECMWFSUPPRESSES THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE S AND KEEPS IT DRY.CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE SIMILAR IN THE MODELS AT THEMID LEVELS...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH HIGHER AT THE LOW LEVELS. AS ARESULT...WILL RAISE POPS DUE TO THE WETTER SOLUTIONS OF THEAMERICAN MODELS...BUT KEEP THE FCST IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TOTHE UNCERTAINTY INTRODUCED BY THE ECMWF.HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON TUE...ALLOWINGFOR CLEARING SKIES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 5DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEMWILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...JUST DIFFERENCESON TIMING. GIVEN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW HAVELEANED TOWARDS FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITHLIGHT SNOW LIKELY FROM MID TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNINGFROM W TO E. QPF WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO AROUND12:1 BASED ON A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILESSUPPORT THE IDEA OF AROUND 0.5-1 INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS SHEARING OUT...FEEL MORE CONFIDENT...FOR NOWABOUT SNOWFALL ACROSS NW ZONES THEN ELSEWHERE...SO HAVE RESTRICTEDLIKELY POPS TO THERE AT THIS TIME.FOR LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH LOWSNEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OFGFS/NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WITH MAV/MET GUIDANCE AND A MIX DOWNFROM 950 HPA NEAR THE COAST AND 875 HPA INLAND PER BUFKITSOUNDINGS. EXPECT VALUES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.WEAK NORTHERN STREAM RIDGING BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.STILL QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CMC/GFS AND THEECMWF/UKMET ON WHETHER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS PHASETHURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN SOME SUPPORT FOR THE ECMWF/UKMETSOLUTION BY A FEW INDIVIDUAL GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...RUN TO RUNCONSISTENCY IN THE ECMWF AND BETTER OVERALL HISTORICAL PERFORMANCEOF THE ECMWF INT HIS TIME RANGE...USED THE 00Z ECMWF IN THIS TIMERANGE.THE RESULT IS EXPECT A COASTAL LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MIDATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TRACK TO THE S OF LONGISLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...PASSING INSIDE THE 40N/70WBENCHMARK...AND REACH A POSITION EAST OF CAPE COD BY FRIDAYEVENING...AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH AXIS BUILD INTO THE REGION.BASED ON THIS HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW THROUGHOUT BY LATE THURSDAYNIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN THROUGHOUT BY AFTERNOON...EXCEPTFOR MAYBE FAR NW ZONES BASED ON IDEA OF RETREATING HIGH TO THE NE- NOTHING TO KEEP THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR TRAPPED IN...AND FORECASTOF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 925 HPA TO THE SURFACEACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN PRECIPITATIONMIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY EVENING ASTHEPLEASE NOTE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THIS FORECAST.IF THE PHASING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL WELL OFFSHORE...LIKE THE GFSAND CMC-GLOBAL...THEN THE ENTIRE REGION WOULD EXPERIENCE SOMELIGHT SNOW IN THIS TIME FRAME. ALSO...DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOWLEVEL THERMAL FORECAST PLAYS OUT WITH TIME AND THE EXACT TRACK OFTHE LOW WILL ALSO HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH IF ANY CHANGE OVER TORAIN IS ULTIMATELY SEEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.DEEP LAYER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRYWEATHER EXPECTED.FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...USED A BLEND OFMEX/MEN ENSEMBLE MEAN/ECE/HPC GUIDANCE...WEIGHED MORE TOWARDS HPCAND ECE GUIDANCE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURESWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TO BE NEAR NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMALTHURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BENEAR NORMAL...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLYFORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.&&.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WEAK HIGH PRES MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WEAKLOW PRES MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST FOR TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS THROUGHTHE REGION. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE...BUT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING...WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KTWITH 20-30 KT GUSTS. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BY A FEW KT FROM12Z-15Z BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN THEREAFTER. WINDS DIMINISH FAIRLYQUICKLY TO 5-10 KT BETWEEN 22Z-23Z...THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATETONIGHT.WEAK LOW PRES PASSES SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT. LIGHTSNOW DEVELOPS AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAYMORNING. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER POCKETS OF SNOW...OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDS ON TAP DURING THAT PERIOD....NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTSCAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z. WINDDIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE. OCNLGUSTS TO 25 KT LATE THIS MORNING.THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIESSLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z. WINDDIRECTION WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES TO THE LEFT OF 310 TRUE.KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z.KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH 00Z..OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....TUESDAY...CONDS IMPROVE TO VFR LATE IN THE MORNING..TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A FEW PERIODS OF MVFRPOSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS..THURSDAY...VFR..FRIDAY...CHC IFR AND 25KT GUSTS.&&.MARINE...MINOR CHANGES MADE IN HOURLY GRIDS MADE TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDSIN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.SCA WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THEMARITIMES. WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALEFORCE...ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS.CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING ABIT LONGER ON THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. FLOW ON TUE WILLGRADUALLY VEER FROM NW-NE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY BELOW15KT.FOR NOW EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERSTUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT AREPOSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN COLD ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE SECONDCLIPPER SYSTEM.DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF A COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST TOPASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...AT LEAST SMALL CRAFTCONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON AREA WATERS THEN.&&.HYDROLOGY...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE REGION COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANTLIQUID EQUIVALENT (0.5 INCHES OR MORE) FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTOFRIDAY.&&.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...CT...NONE.NY...NONE.NJ...NONE.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-345-355.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ350-353.&&$SYNOPSIS...JMC/MALOITNEAR TERM...MALOIT/JMCSHORT TERM...JMCLONG TERM...MALOITAVIATION...MPSMARINE...MALOIT/JMCHYDROLOGY...JMC/MALOIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 326FXUS61 KPHI 041142AFDPHIAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ642 AM EST MON FEB 4 2013.SYNOPSIS...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THISMORNING WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. A PAIR OFCLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHERNPLAINS AND PASS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAYNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATEWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO AFFECT USON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM EASTERN CANADA TOFOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING WOULD NORMALLY YIELD BETTER RADIATIONALCOOLING TO TAKE PLACE, ESPECIALLY WITH A FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND,HOWEVER, TURBULENT MIXING WILL KEEP THIS MORNINGS LOW FROMPLUMMETING. WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS NORTH ANDWEST OF THE CITY AND AROUND 20 SOUTHEAST OF THE CITY.THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS THE LOW PRESSUREWELL OFFSHORE DEEPENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR SOUTH. ABLUSTERY DAY IS ON TAP AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THISAFTERNOON DROPPING 850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -15C TO -17C.IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AS THE SURFACEAND 925MB FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...WEAK WAA REGIME...WE STARTTO SEE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE WHICH WOULD HELP TO KEEPTEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH TODAY. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLYCOMPONENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS, DOWNSLOPING WILL ALSO HELP TOADD A DEGREE OR TWO TO TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PARTBOTH THE MAV AND MET APPEAR SIMILAR ENOUGH TO USE A STRAIGHT BLENDBUT DECIDED, BASED ON THE ABOVE, TO EDGE TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV FORTODAY.&&.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...EXPECTING THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATETHIS EVENING. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS NEARLY ZONAL AS THESTABLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD A LIGHT SNOW FROMWEST TO EAST TONIGHT. THE FLOW REMAINS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THEBETTER JET DYNAMICS TOO FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS PLACES OUR REGIONIN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH PROVIDES MORE OF A SINKING MOTION.MID-LEVEL OMEGA IS VERY MARGINAL BORDERING ON WEAK SO NOT EXPECTINGMUCH IN THE WAY OF DENDRITIC GROWTH, PLUS THE WINDS WITHIN THEGROWTH ZONE ARE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS. MID-LEVELQ-VECTOR CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT AS DOES THEMID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPICLIFTING REMAINS WEAK. THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS GOING AGAINST THISSYSTEM ONCE IT CROSSES THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST. THE ONEBRIGHT SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WEHAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS.THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING PRODUCED AROUND A 15:1RATIO AND THE CLIPPER ON SATURDAY HAD SOME 20+:1 RATIOS EMBEDDED INA GENERAL 15:1. THE QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN AROUND A FEWHUNDREDTHS AS IT PULLS THROUGH. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO TOTALS RANGINGFROM A HALF TO ONE AND HALF INCHES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOWFALLING IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN NEW JERSEY ZONES AND WELLOFFSHORE...THIS IS WHERE SOME STRONGER WAA COULD INCREASE QPF VALUESSLIGHTLY. THE EVENT IN GENERAL APPEARS TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LASTING NOMORE THAN A FEW HOURS...AGAIN WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.TEMPERATURE WISE A SIMPLE BLEND OF THE MET/MAV SHOULD SUFFICE ASPLENTY OF CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS THEWAVE MOVES THROUGH. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-20S EXPECTED...UPPERTEENS ACROSS THE NORTH.&&.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...REGARDING THE END OF THE FIRST CLIPPER, WE HAVE PUT BACK THE SLIGHTCHANCE POPS EARLY ON TUESDAY IN THE EVENT THAT THE AMERICAN MODELSARE RIGHT TO DRAW OUT THE WEAK TRANSFERENCE OF ENERGY. WE CONTINUETO THINK THAT TUESDAY WILL NOT OFFER MUCH SUNSHINE, SINCE THE SECONDCLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING BY THE TIME THE FIRST IN LEAVING.IT STILL LOOKS TO US LIKE THE UPPER JET IS NOT IN A VERY FAVORABLELOCATION FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT SECOND SYSTEM. THE DYNAMICS ARESTILL CONSISTENT WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES,AND THE BEST OF EVERYTHING FROM MID LEVELS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ANDFROM SYNOPTIC SCALE TO MESOSCALE STILL LOOK TO FAVOR THE NORTHWESTOVER THE SOUTHEAST. WE WERE ABLE TO FIND A WEAK MANIFESTATION OFLIFT AND SNOW GROWTH COINCIDING SOMETIME TUESDAY NIGHT IN BOTH THE04/00Z GFS AND NAM BUFKIT OVERVIEWS FOR AVP, AND THERE EVEN WAS ABRIEF PERIOD OF TIME WHEN THETA E VALUES IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIONDID NOT INCREASE WITH HEIGHT. THIS SIGNAL IS WEAK AND NEW TO THEGAME. WE'VE LOOKED AT TWO OR THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF, GFS AND NAMNOW, AND OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THAT IS BASED ONTHIS OPERATIONAL ENSEMBLE CHANGES VERY LITTLE FROM THAT OF THEPREVIOUS FORECASTER. WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT.THE OBVIOUS CAVEAT IS THAT IF THE WEAK SIGNAL IN THE NORTHWEST GETSSTRONGER OVER SUBSEQUENT RUNS, THEN A TICK UPWARD IN QPF AND RATIOSTHERE WOULD LEAD TO A REQUISITE UPTICK IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THESOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY CHILLY FAR NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS IN THESNOW GROWTH REGION LOOK TO BE AROUND 40 KT. IF WE START TO SEE GOODOMEGA IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION WITH A CLEAR SIGNAL OF STEADY ORFALLING THETA E VALUES WITH HEIGHT, THEN RATIOS NORTHWEST STILLCOULD SURPASS 20 TO 1. COMBINED WITH INCREASED QPF, WE WOULD BEPUSHING INTO ADVISORY TERRITORY THERE.ONLY THE NAM KEEPS BACK PRECIPITATION EARLY IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,AND WE KEPT WEDNESDAY DRY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING. WEDNESDAY NIGHTCOULD BE A DECENT RADIATING NIGHT, AND THURSDAY MAY AT LEAST STARTAS SUNNY (MORE LIKELY SOUTHEAST THAN NORTHWEST). WINDS START TOSHIFT TO ONSHORE AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TOSHIFT EAST, AND CLOUDS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS LIKELY WILL START TOINVADE AHEAD OF THE END-OF-THE-WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM.REGARDING THAT, THE ECMWF IS CARRYING A MODESTLY TONED DOWN VERSIONOF THE DEVELOPING COASTAL SYSTEM THAT IT SHOWED OVER THE PAST TWORUNS. THE SHARPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOESN'T CUT OFF WITH THISRUN UNTIL IT PASSES CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THE SURFACE LOW ISN'TQUITE AS QUICK TO EXPLODE AS IT LIFTS FROM NORFOLK TO THE NEWENGLAND MARITIMES. THE GFS AND CANADIAN HAVE LESS SHARP MID LEVELTROUGHS AND MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE LOWS. IN FACT, THE GFS ACTUALLYCARRIES AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LOOK A LOTLIKE THE OPERATIONAL GFS, ALTHOUGH THERE ALSO IS A LOT OF VARIANCEIN THE EACH ONE'S INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.DON'T TAKE TOO MUCH COMFORT IN THE ENSEMBLES. KEEP IN MIND THAT THISFAR OUT THEY DO SOMETIMES SMOOTH OUT WHAT END UP BEING STRONGSYSTEMS. IT GIVES US A LITTLE MORE COMFORT THAT THE PRESENT TREND INTHE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS AT LEAST TOWARD DELAYING AND THEREFOREPUSHING FURTHER EAST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. IT GIVES USA WEE BIT MORE COMFORT THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND CANADIAN ARE NOTYET JUMPING IN WITH THE ECMWF. WE DO NOTE THAT HPC IS TAKING AWEAKENED VERSION OF THE LATEST ECMWF AS ITS BASIS FOR THEIR LATESTFORECAST.WE REMAIN LOATH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LATTER PART OF THELONG TERM DUE TO THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. THE WEEKEND STILLLOOKS DRY.&&.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 06Z TAF CYCLE AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS,WITH INCLUDED GUSTS, WILL HELP TO KEEP CIGS AND VSBYS IN THE VFRRANGE TODAY THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL BE UPWARDS OF20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THEEVENING HOURS.MORE MID-LEVEL WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THENEXT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS WITH IT THE POSSIBILITYOF LOWERING CONDITIONS AS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL SHORTLYAFTER 00Z TONIGHT ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST TERMINALS. A GRADUALLOWERING OF THE CIGS IS EXPECTED WHILE VSBYS COULD TANK DOWN INTOTHE IFR RANGE AS THE STEADIER SNOW SWEEPS ACROSS OUR TERMINALS LATETONIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THISSYSTEM AND LOOK TO GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS IT PASSES DIRECTLYOVERHEAD.THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING OUT TO THE SEA NEAR THE END OF THETAF CYCLE BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF A SURFACE FLOW WOULD THINK WE KEEPMVFR CIGS AROUND FOR A BETTER PART OF THE MORNING HOURS.OUTLOOK...TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE EARLY IN THE DAYAND MODERATE THEREAFTER.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS INMAINLY SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TOMODERATE.FRIDAY...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE.&&.MARINE...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIRADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS ACROSSALL OUR WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGHTHE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE OURGUSTINESS BY THEN. WINDS WILL BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OFTHE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.AN AREA OF SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD OUR WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTHOURS. WINDS COULD BRIEFLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE CLIPPER MAYINTENSIFY A BIT AS IT MOVES OVER THE WATER...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONSARE STILL EXPECTED.OUTLOOK...ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS MIGHT APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY,WE THINK THEY WILL STAY SUB-ADVISORY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ADVISORYCONDITIONS MIGHT COME ON FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM PER THE ECMWFOR ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A CONSENSUSVERSION OF A DEPARTING SYSTEM. INDEED, THE ECMWF WOULD CARRY GALES(AT LEAST) WITH IT.&&.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...PA...NONE.NJ...NONE.DE...NONE.MD...NONE.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.&&$$SYNOPSIS...GIGINEAR TERM...HEAVENERSHORT TERM...HEAVENERLONG TERM...DELISIAVIATION...HEAVENERMARINE...HEAVENER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HPC going with significant QPF for Days 4-5 over the area. 00z Euro would probably be a warning criteria snowfall west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HPC going with significant QPF for Days 4-5 over the area. 00z Euro would probably be a warning criteria snowfall west of the city. Euro is all rain west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 00z EURO is rain for me, correct? (Stamford, CT) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 00z EURO is rain for me, correct? (Stamford, CT) -skisheep Yes, a cold rain. Snow for upstate Ny. The ensembles from 00z are more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yes, a cold rain. Snow for upstate Ny. The ensembles from 00z are more progressive Progressive has been the theme for this whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yes, a cold rain. Snow for upstate Ny. The ensembles from 00z are more progressive OK, might have to head up to Lake Placid for this one. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HPC going with significant QPF for Days 4-5 over the area. 00z Euro would probably be a warning criteria snowfall west of the city. Surface is very warm for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Surface is very warm for everyone I'll bet the storm as depicted on the Euro won't even happen, I'm going with the theme of this winter which is weaker, further south, and progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Its a cold rain from the city on south and east , this could turn out to be a bigtime snowstorm in New England . It looks like places just north and west of the city , do go back over to snow as the center passes by . There will be great lapse rates and dynamic cooling with this system . so palces just away from the coast see some snow Our problem is we cant keep our mid levels cold throughout the storm . so i wouldn`t be expecting much to change on the models for our area . The fine tuning will be north and west of the city and how much snow New England actually sees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Its a cold rain from the city on south and east , this could turn out to be a bigtime snowstorm in New England . It looks like places just north and west of the city , do go back over to snow as the center passes by . There will be great lapse rates and dynamic cooling with this system . so palces just away from the coast see some snow Our problem is we cant keep our mid levels cold throughout the storm . so i wouldn`t be expecting much to change on the models for our area . The fine tuning will be north and west of the city and how much snow New England actually sees Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Surface is very warm for everyone By everyone are you discounting us folks way north and west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 By everyone are you discounting us folks way north and west? It's too warm for places north and west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model.Nah , they are pretty similar . You are not goin to hav to go far to see accumulating snow . There will be a change back to snow once the center comes underneath you . Just dont know if it makes all the way down to the city before the precip pulls out . But just N W obviously in a better spot . 4 days out , but this is NOT a snow scenario for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 By everyone are you discounting us folks way north and west? You're torched verbatim on the 00z euro. What else do you want me to say? Gfs is still not budging so the euro is probably wrong. Really nothing support an east coast storm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 You're torched verbatim on the 00z euro. What else do you want me to say? Gfs is still not budging so the euro is probably wrong. Really nothing support an east coast storm right now He thinks he lives in the Rockies and the rest of us are in Miami. Just ask him about his epic ice storm the other day? It's rain for 100% of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 He thinks he lives in the Rockies and the rest of us are in Miami. Just ask him about his epic ice storm the other day? It's rain for 100% of the area Don't be jealous, I'm sitting at nearly 20" so far on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Yes, that's if the Euro is right. The ensembles don't even agree with the operational model. I'd take any solution that blows up a storm nearby with extreme caution given the fast and progressive pattern we're in. It'll take a tremendous amount of good luck to even generate a real storm near us. More likely it's another lame clipper or a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Don't be jealous, I'm sitting at nearly 20" so far on the season. Omg I'm so jealous, you have the climate that's equivalent to those in Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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