dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Mets, correct me if I am wrong, but we want the hP in QUE to be a bit further west... True that would be more ideal but that is a huge area of High pressure and very strong. I like that is oriented well from north to south. The heights associated with it extended west almost banana style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z Nogaps wasn't a miss. Correct. Warning criteria snow for all of us, certainly for the poster who said it was a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 6z Nogaps wasn't a miss. then the 0Z was...it missed SNE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saloo Kaloo Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nothing nothing I'm seeing a real nice cad setup on the Nam right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Why? What's the reason? check out the comments section on DT's facebook, it's his read on where the banding may set up based on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 True that would be more ideal but that is a huge area of High pressure and very strong. I like that is oriented well north to south. The heights asociated with it extended west almost banana style. but im pretty sure you want the banana extended west, not east into the atlantic...would cause a more easterly flow...we need a N/NNE flow or we wont cool sufficiently...JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 the Lindsay storm was a miller B, no way there was a positive NAO...this is textbook -NAO...you cant have a Miller B in a +NAO...the reason it transfers is because of the block/-nao It`s in Kocins book .The values were Neut , and turned sharply NEG rigth after . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 51 moderate snow overspreading the region from west to east thanks to the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 then the 0Z was...it missed SNE as well. yea I meant to say 0z, was the miss, 6z flip flopped, either way nogaps is unreliable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Correct. Warning criteria snow for all of us, certainly for the poster who said it was a miss. just looked at the 6Z NOCRAPS...its a real late phase, kinda scraps SNE, hits us harder, not sure about temps...MUCH better than 0Z, thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is warm for the area, stronger primary floods the mid levels with marine taint from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Raining here at 54 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 54 the primary is dead, coastal taking over but will it come close enough to the coast to get the CCB into the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 but im pretty sure you want the banana extended west, not east into the atlantic...would cause a more easterly flow...we need a N/NNE flow or we wont cool sufficiently...JMHO You do but it extends west well also. It is a very strong area of High pressure. It will serve us well if the phase/transfer is early enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It`s in Kocins book . i have Kocin's book...will check when I get home, but im pretty sure that a MIller B doesnt occur in a +NAO phase...no way or reason for it to transfer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 57 the phase has still not occured Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Nam doesn't show a lot of precip. Not worried at all. It's warm also for coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 51 moderate snow overspreading the region from west to east thanks to the primary the primary in the lakes is way to strong. The h8 low has two closed isobars...yeek, that needs to die sooner also the northern stream is much slower this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 NAM looks like it's taking a good step forward, the primary initially torches most of us but looks close to a phase by 54. Maybe just a little late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam is warm for the area, stronger primary floods the mid levels with marine taint from the south Both the NAM and GFS love doing this with the primary. They both at this range always place it poorly and model it too strong in coastal transfer/phase situations. If the phase occurs early enough like the EURO shows, the primary will die sooner and weaken sooner and will not have the impact being shown right now and the EURO handles this process better in these situations than any other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 this is not what you want to see...h8 closed low over BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 63 we get no qpf from costal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 60 still un-phased. The CCB looks like it will miss us SE. Still a good front end thump from the WWA snows and we might get some on the back end like the GFS has been showing. Still outside the NAMS good range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The NAM made steps in the right direction, but it still has work to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 66 Li getting snow. Nothing west of NYC. Cold of enough too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Nam doesn't show a lot of precip. Not worried at all. It's warm also for coastal SNE.. No it doesn't show a lot of precip, even areas n and w of NYC are rain, ugly run imo, phase too late, primary doesn't die quick enough, warm run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hr 60 simulated radar is a suicide alert with massive deform band just offshore and pretty much the entire rest of the northeast getting hammered outside of NJ and SE NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Slightly later phase on this run. Good improvements on this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GREAT STEP BY THE NAM . IT FINALLY SEES THE TRACK FROM CAP HATT TO CAPE COD . 1ST TIME ITS DONE THAT .SO IT TOO HAS STEPPED TO THE EURO , NEXT STEP IS ONCE IT DEEPENS THE CENTER LIKE THE EURO , IT TOO WILL STEP IN LINE JUST FINE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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