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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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Mets, correct me if I am wrong, but we want the hP in QUE to be a bit further west...nam_namer_036_1000_500_thick.gif

 

True that would be more ideal but that is a huge area of High pressure and very strong. I like that is oriented well from north to south. The heights associated with it extended west almost banana style.

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True that would be more ideal but that is a huge area of High pressure and very strong. I like that is oriented well north to south. The heights asociated with it extended west almost banana style.

but im pretty sure you want the banana extended west, not east into the atlantic...would cause a more easterly flow...we need a N/NNE flow or we wont cool sufficiently...JMHO

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the Lindsay storm was a miller B, no way there was a positive NAO...this is textbook -NAO...you cant have a Miller B in a +NAO...the reason it transfers is because of the block/-nao

130206142252.gif

It`s in Kocins book .

The values were Neut , and turned sharply NEG rigth after .

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Correct. Warning criteria snow for all of us, certainly for the poster who said it was a miss.

just looked at the 6Z NOCRAPS...its a real late phase, kinda scraps SNE, hits us harder, not sure about temps...MUCH better than 0Z, thats for sure

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but im pretty sure you want the banana extended west, not east into the atlantic...would cause a more easterly flow...we need a N/NNE flow or we wont cool sufficiently...JMHO

You do but it extends west well also. It is a very strong area of High pressure. It will serve us well if the phase/transfer is early enough.

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Hr 51 moderate snow overspreading the region from west to east thanks to the primary

 

nam_namer_051_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

the primary in the lakes is way to strong. The h8 low has two closed isobars...yeek, that needs to die sooner

 

also the northern stream is much slower this run...

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Nam is warm for the area, stronger primary floods the mid levels with marine taint from the south

Both the NAM and GFS love doing this with the primary. They both at this range always place it poorly and model it too strong in coastal transfer/phase situations. If the phase occurs early enough like the EURO shows, the primary will die sooner and weaken sooner and will not have the impact being shown right now and the EURO handles this process better in these situations than any other model.

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GREAT STEP BY THE NAM . IT FINALLY SEES THE TRACK FROM CAP HATT TO CAPE COD . 1ST TIME ITS DONE THAT .SO IT TOO HAS STEPPED TO THE EURO , NEXT STEP IS ONCE IT DEEPENS THE CENTER LIKE THE EURO , IT TOO WILL STEP IN LINE JUST FINE .

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