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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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Big props to TWC this morning, actually showing a somewhat reasonable forecast map, 1-3 for NYC with 3-6 just north and 6-12 in Boston...I wonder if someone there told them no more of those Euro or GFS snow maps.

Yes but Chris Cimino on NBC 4 shows the RPM Model. What is that? is it at all accurate?

 

Rossi

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Big props to TWC this morning, actually showing a somewhat reasonable forecast map, 1-3 for NYC with 3-6 just north and 6-12 in Boston...I wonder if someone there told them no more of those Euro or GFS snow maps.

 

What, you don't think calling for 29"+ in North Jersey/NY at this time is reasonable?

 

  :poster_oops:

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000FLUS41 KOKX 060909HWOOKXHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY409 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013
NYZ078>081-177-179-071100-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-409 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND THENRAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT.BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHTWITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TORAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARDCONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THETIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BEACH EROSION ISALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT.
 

Did upton really put that out with 72 hours to go??? Give me some of whatever they are smoking

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That doesn't matter right now. The low is in the perfect spot. Temps crash as the low starts to bomb out as it heads just east of the area.

For the mean, yes. The low is in a good spot. However there is a split with members showing no phase and others showing a complete phase. 

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0Z CONTROL RUN OF THE EURO JUST CAME IN AND HAS ALL OF NJ, SE NY, NYC, LONG ISLAND, CONNECTICUT AS 2.5-3.0 INCHES OF PRECIP WITH 850'S BELOW 0 CRASHING OFF SHORE.  DEEPENS TO A 978MB AND STALLS IN PERFECT LOCATION. Yes, it could start as rain in some locations, but the majority of this storm will be snow everywhere.  Unreal.  I strongly the believe the Euro operational run will keep trending toward this, as it has on the prior two runs now.  Unreal. 

has it ever been even close to correct? cut all that in half and add a few degrees

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More like the Euro control run, Euro ensembles, Euro, JMA, ARW, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS ensembles, GFS and RGEM (in order of very favorable to modestly favorable) vs. the GGEM and NAM.

NOGAPS was a complete miss at 6Z and alot of the others showed plenty of rain for us...just pointing out the facts

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Big props to TWC this morning, actually showing a somewhat reasonable forecast map, 1-3 for NYC with 3-6 just north and 6-12 in Boston...I wonder if someone there told them no more of those Euro or GFS snow maps.

Reasonable is fine but Upton itself already forcasting 4+ for NYC in its discussion. Clearly by 2p this afternoon things should be significantly clearer. But anyone who was crushed by hype on  March 2001 storm down here will be very reticent till at least another 24-36 hours.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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That doesn't matter right now. The low is in the perfect spot. Temps crash as the low starts to bomb out as it heads just east of the area.

The primary low dying out and the coastal being our primary feature is much more important to us than even the low's track. If there's still a strong primary feature it's rain. That simple. The phase has to happen soon enough for the low to close off at our latitude.

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33Hr NAM is classic in some ways....1036 high in PERFECT SPOT, 50/50 low near perfect spot (although not overly strong) and cold antecedent airmass (low 30's highs for tomorrow). Only fly in the ointment is the disturbance streaking into the high well to the north and west...

 

right off the bat, looking at h5 on the 12Z NAM you see the big improvement at 33 vs 39 (6Z), much sharper and deeper digging vort over the MW

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The Euro control run closes NYC , Long Island and thru Boston . LOL prob overdone . For those who thinks you cant get a big snowstorm in NYC with a pos NAO ,please refer to the March superstorm of 1993 as did the Lindsay storm in 69 . Both had pos NAO so lets put that lame argument to bed .

My idea is that Long Island clearly does better than NYC

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DT thinks areas north and west of nyc, especially northern/north east new jersey and southeast new york, could be in a screw zone, where they get way less snow than a place like queens

:axe:

 

Figures but if the best or strong banding sets up east of my area and perhaps just to the west, he is absolutely correct. Hasn't happened much in many years here and I have been in the region since 2001 (Jersey City and then Cliffside Park from 2005 on) but it certainly is on the table in any coastal for anyone really.

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DT thinks areas north and west of nyc, especially northern/north east new jersey and southeast new york, could be in a screw zone, where they get way less snow than a place like queens

This happens a lot for us folks in northern and especially northwestern NJ. The best banding in these types of situations sometimes ends up further south and east. It doesn't really matter much because by screw zone it just means someone else gets 15-20" of snow and we get 8-12" of snow.

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The Euro control run closes NYC , Long Island and thru Boston . LOL prob overdone . For those who thinks you cant get a big snowstorm in NYC with a pos NAO ,please refer to the March superstorm of 1993 as did the Lindsay storm in 69 . Both had pos NAO so lets put that lame argument to bed .

the Lindsay storm was a miller B, no way there was a positive NAO...this is textbook -NAO...you cant have a Miller B in a +NAO...the reason it transfers is because of the block/-nao

130206142252.gif

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The Euro control run closes NYC , Long Island and thru Boston . LOL prob overdone . For those who thinks you cant get a big snowstorm in NYC with a pos NAO ,please refer to the March superstorm of 1993 as did the Lindsay storm in 69 . Both had pos NAO so lets put that lame argument to bed .

My idea is that Long Island clearly does better than NYC

I think you mean Feb 1967, not the Lindsay Storm. and even Feb 1967 was neutral to slightly negative

130206142429.gif

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