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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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Upton for LI

 

 

LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND FRIDAY AND THEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
RAIN ON FRIDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT.

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One thing is for sure, if the euro backs down at 12z, there will be people ready to jump...

This would be one of the biggest fails for the Euro ever if it eventually caved to the GFS. In the end, The key is how early the mid-level centers close off. If it's down in the Delmarva it's likely going to be mostly snow for everyone, including the coast. For my personal interests I would like to see the track come even closer so that NNJ can get into the better deform banding instead of being on the western edge. A solid 6-12" storm is nothing to shake a stick at but it's nothing compared to a 12-24" storm, which I think is certainly still on the table.

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The GFS continues to show that piece of energy rotating around the system giving snow here as the low is departing, its possible that could be screwing up its phase potentially...if you watch the 500mb evolution closely that little piece is the vort from the primary low which sort of phases in and then slides out around the left side of the upper level vort as the storm continues NE.  GFS could be having issues trying to work that phase.

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Has 90% of the area in 1"+ contour with areas of 1.0"-1.5". Very impressive for an ensemble mean

 

sref_namer_072_precip_p24.gif

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He did not say that -  He said snow overspreading NJ thursday night and changing to rain in south jersey and maybe central jersey. More snow to the north.

 

Alan is extremely conservative and once all models agree he will be on board

 

Please dont stretch the truth.

 

Rossi

Rossi - read his forecast on your 101.5 site - it reads exactly like I heard him say on air this morning at 5 - I am not stretching any truth - has he changed it since ???

 

http://nj1015.com/weather/

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Winter Storm Watches already up for the greater Boston area and much of Northern New England

 

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA418 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013...STRONG COASTAL STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLESTARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING....A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE MID-ATLANTICCOAST LATE THURSDAY AND PASS CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK LATE FRIDAY.THIS STORM WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OUT TO THE MARITIMES SOMETIME ONSATURDAY...HOWEVER EXACT TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN. ALTHOUGH THETRACK OF THE STORM MAY SHIFT IN THE COMING DAYS...IT APPEARS THATTHIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT 6 INCHESOR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.MAZ002>016-026-NHZ011-012-015-061730-/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0002.130208T0600Z-130209T1200Z/WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE418 AM EST WED FEB 6 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY MORNING.* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS  EXCEPT THE COASTAL PLAIN...CAPE AND ISLANDS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE.* ACCUMULATIONS...OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.* TIMING...BELIEVE SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT LASTING  INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE STORM MAY  LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITIES FROM  DRIFTING SNOW.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATINGSNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR 8 OR MOREINCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE NEXT 24 TO36 HOURS SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO MODIFYTRAVEL PLANS SHOULD WINTER WEATHER DEVELOP.&&$$DUNTEN
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I'm not fully jumping in until tonight's 0z runs, but 12z will be very interesting to see if this amped trend on the Euro stays or if it backs off. The Euro has been iffy this winter, but when it shows a strengthening trend over several runs so close to the event, it's something to pay attention to. We're a little more in the game for this now than last night, but odds I would say still favor northeast of us until we see other models really jump onto the early phase idea. I also don't buy the crazy 20"+ snow amounts in a progressive pattern such as this-I'm sure many people would get over 12" but over 20" really stretches it. I saw the RPM graphics on NBC4 this morning and my jaw literally dropped that they would air that given such uncertainty.

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It's unusual to see Upton throwing amounts out this early.

I agree, but I would expect that if the 12z guidance moves towards the Euro and that if the Euro holds, we will see widespread winter storm watches with the afternoon update. With potential blizzard watches for eastern zones. I do have some fear that this could end up like March 2001, and by that I mean huge hype and barely any snow.

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AG3 is right. 500mb low is in a great spot. I missed it on my first pass on the crappy ncep UX. SREFs take another big step toward the Euro.

I would prefer that it be closed off at our latitude. We need it to be as strong as possible. Even if the low takes a good track, the primary still being strong is a big concern. 

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If EURO holds at 12z, or even goes back to it's 12z yesterday, and assuming the GFS does not get worse(because right now it's sitll advisory snow for the city) watches will go up most likely for uptons entire area. Would be very suprised if with the afternoon update i'm not under a watch.

 

-skisheep

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Once/If I see one of the American models NAM/GFS resemble something close to the EURO solution I will become more confident. Until then both the GFS/NAM are minimal impact snow wise for the area and big red flag.

 

We shall see if the 12z NAM does anything good in a few...

 

The NAM jumping that way would make it a near certainty the GFS will follow but we may not see the NAM truly do so until the main body time of this system gets inside 48 hours on the NAM, it should be nearing that now but since the NAM has a tendency to be too slow it may be until the 00Z run tonight before the NAM moved towards the Euro or GFS.

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