donsutherland1 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's just odd to see what the Euro depicts given the indicies presented. We'll have a slightly negative AO and a slightly positive PNA/NAO. The February 1967 and 2003 storms all had those indices (AO, NAO and PNA) at the start. Needless to say, I'd like to see the GFS come on board before I have confidence in the Euro's big solution for Long Island/NYC metro area. Its continuity gives me increasing confidence that parts of New England could see a substantial snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 HPC Not too shabby at all. I'll gladly take .75-1" of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro is going down in flames or if this storm goes its way will forever forge its expertise w/ southern stream systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Last nites Euro control run was just too over the top to believe , but the 0z operational took a step towards it . Even if the Euro backs down a bit and the GFS phases a little faster like the Euro guidnace suggests ,a clear CCB signal is now being shown on almost every model . The question will be how fast will the 850`s crash and will determine the amount of frozen liq . I think Long Island will be the bullseye for our area come Fri nite , where heavy snow and winds gusting to 55 ( prob hurricane force out on the cape ) should casue BLIZZARD conditions . The Euro has printed out 3 inches plus QPF for 3 straight runs over Boston , so the Euro has been the most consistent in the handling of this system since Monday nite now bringing a 970 cut off low off Cape Cod . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The Euro is going down in flames or if this storm goes its way will forever forge its expertise w/ southern stream systems.. Like I said in the other thread, the EURO parade seems to be gaining more floats so to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RPM model Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Now it's the euro vs gfs, nam, rgem, canadian, and ukmet. Either it's going to score a coup or its gonna do a casey jones and crash and burn on its own train.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I wonder if we'd be quick to discount the euro if it was opposite and was the only one NOT showing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RPM model Since it made me LOL I had to post on Facebook. That's just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RPM model http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=87759'>uploadfromtaptalk1360151277699.jpg Sent from Tapatalk It's irresponsible to put that up on a local morning news cast and expect people to comprehend what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Now it's the euro vs gfs, nam, rgem, canadian, and ukmet. Either it's going to score a coup or its gonna do a casey jones and crash and burn on its own train.... More like the Euro control run, Euro ensembles, Euro, JMA, ARW, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS ensembles, GFS and RGEM (in order of very favorable to modestly favorable) vs. the GGEM and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RPM model uploadfromtaptalk1360151277699.jpg Sent from Tapatalk It's irresponsible to put that up on a local morning news cast and expect people to comprehend what they are seeing. All about the hype indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 As of now I'd say there is high confidence in more than 2", good confidence more than 4", low confidence more than 6" for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's irresponsible to put that up on a local morning news cast and expect people to comprehend what they are seeing. Agree More like the Euro control run, Euro ensembles, Euro, JMA, ARW, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS ensembles, GFS (in order of very favorable to modestly favorable) vs. the GGEM and NAM. Agree. Euro gaining allies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The whole forecast for us hinges on the timing of the 500 mb low closing off and CCB development. The Euro is quicker than the other models with the close off and has the most impressive snows here while all the other guidance is a little slower. Euro early close off GFS slower close off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing is for sure, if the euro backs down at 12z, there will be people ready to jump... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This whole timing of the phasing reminds me of both Boxing Day snowstorm which was an extremely close call with the phasing but in a positive way and march 2001 where the timing was later and we got screwed. I really don't see this as being our storm save maybe some light snow, I'm happy for SNE, they deserve it, hope its historic for Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The HPC makes an interesting point about the Canadian shortwave and why the Euro is so much faster closing off H500 than the other guidance. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTPREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE AMPLIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME DUE TO INCREASINGRIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ANUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY ON ITSHEELS, WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE AND/OR KEEP IT MOREPROGRESSIVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, THOUGH IT HASSLOWED ITS PROGRESSION SINCE ITS 18Z RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF HASVIRTUALLY ELIMINATED THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND VIRTUALLY STALLSTHE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY ONLY SEVEN OF THE 90 12ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SO ITS SOLUTION IS LIKELY TOO FARSOUTHWEST. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE TO DEALWITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 One thing is for sure, if the euro backs down at 12z, there will be people ready to jump... I'm beginning to think it won't, GFS starting to lean that way. If it does, instead of WSW's there will be another WSW(weenie suicide warning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The HPC makes an interesting point about the Canadian shortwave and why the Euro is so much faster closing off H500 than the other guidance. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTPREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE AMPLIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME DUE TO INCREASINGRIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ANUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY ON ITSHEELS, WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE AND/OR KEEP IT MOREPROGRESSIVE. THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, THOUGH IT HASSLOWED ITS PROGRESSION SINCE ITS 18Z RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF HASVIRTUALLY ELIMINATED THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND VIRTUALLY STALLSTHE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY ONLY SEVEN OF THE 90 12ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SO ITS SOLUTION IS LIKELY TOO FARSOUTHWEST. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE TO DEALWITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY. Kinda seems like a cover your behind sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Kinda seems like a cover your behind sentence. They probably didn't want to pull the trigger outside 60 hrs until we get some agreement among all the guidance on the speed of the closing off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They probably didn't want to pull the trigger outside 60 hrs until we get some agreement among all the guidance on the speed of the closing off. Rightfully so too, GFS solution does make more sense given the setup, maybe a tad warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 They probably didn't want to pull the trigger outside 60 hrs until we get some agreement among all the guidance on the speed of the closing off. I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer here, but this has to be a perfectly timed solution for the area to get what the EURO is showing. The one thing going for us is the seperation of the wavelengths between the two streams. Will that be enough to help this thing really dig and close off to our south. IMO it can really go either way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Rightfully so too, GFS solution does make more sense given the setup, maybe a tad warm. I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer here, but this has to be a perfectly timed solution for the area to get what the EURO is showing. The one thing going for us is the seperation of the wavelengths between the two streams. Will that be enough to help this thing really dig and close off to our south. IMO it can really go either way right now. We still have a few model runs to go until we get to within the 60 hr window that the upper low closes off. So there is no rush to jump on any one solution just yet. But we would need to thread the needle in a not so great pattern for the Euro to work out. Boxing day was a thread the needle in a period following historic blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 not in NYC - would rather believe Alan Kasper who says mainly rain He did not say that - He said snow overspreading NJ thursday night and changing to rain in south jersey and maybe central jersey. More snow to the north. Alan is extremely conservative and once all models agree he will be on board Please dont stretch the truth. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 RPM model uploadfromtaptalk1360151277699.jpg Sent from Tapatalk I can't believe they showed that to the public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS always pulls this crap with coastal storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Hpc had 10% chance of a foot in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I don't know, I'd actually feel more comfortable having the GFS/GGEM/UK on my side rather than the Euro, as superior as it may be to other global models, it isn't godly. If the 12z models don't make a MAJOR step (we are running out of time to make baby steps) towards the Euro's upper air setup, I'd expect the 12z euro to back down from it's 0z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I can't believe they showed that to the public Hey if it sells more ads why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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