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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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It's just odd to see what the Euro depicts given the indicies presented. We'll have a slightly negative AO and a slightly positive PNA/NAO.

The February 1967 and 2003 storms all had those indices (AO, NAO and PNA) at the start. Needless to say, I'd like to see the GFS come on board before I have confidence in the Euro's big solution for Long Island/NYC metro area. Its continuity gives me increasing confidence that parts of New England could see a substantial snowfall.

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Last nites Euro control run was just too over the top to believe , but the 0z operational took a step towards it .

Even if the Euro backs down a bit and the GFS phases a little faster like the Euro guidnace suggests ,a clear CCB signal is now being shown on almost every model .

The question will be how fast will the 850`s crash and will determine the amount of frozen liq . I think Long Island will be the bullseye for our area come Fri nite , where heavy snow and winds gusting to 55 ( prob hurricane force out on the cape ) should casue BLIZZARD conditions .

The Euro has printed out 3 inches plus QPF for 3 straight runs over Boston , so the Euro has been the most consistent in the handling of this system since Monday nite now bringing a 970 cut off low off Cape Cod .

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Now it's the euro vs gfs, nam, rgem, canadian, and ukmet. Either it's going to score a coup or its gonna do a casey jones and crash and burn on its own train....

More like the Euro control run, Euro ensembles, Euro, JMA, ARW, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS ensembles, GFS and RGEM (in order of very favorable to modestly favorable) vs. the GGEM and NAM.

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It's irresponsible to put that up on a local morning news cast and expect people to comprehend what they are seeing.

Agree

 

More like the Euro control run, Euro ensembles, Euro, JMA, ARW, NOGAPS, UKMET, GFS ensembles, GFS (in order of very favorable to modestly favorable) vs. the GGEM and NAM.

Agree. Euro gaining allies.

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The whole forecast for us hinges on the timing of the 500 mb low closing off and CCB development.

The Euro is quicker than the other models with the close off and has the most impressive snows

here while all the other guidance is a little slower.

 

Euro early close off

 

 

GFS slower close off

 

 

 

 

 

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This whole timing of the phasing reminds me of both Boxing Day snowstorm which was an extremely close call with the phasing but in a positive way and march 2001 where the timing was later and we got screwed.

I really don't see this as being our storm save maybe some light snow, I'm happy for SNE, they deserve it, hope its historic for Boston

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The HPC makes an interesting point about the Canadian shortwave and why the Euro is so much

faster closing off H500 than the other guidance.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTPREFERENCE:  NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE AMPLIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME DUE TO INCREASINGRIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ANUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY ON ITSHEELS, WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE AND/OR KEEP IT MOREPROGRESSIVE.  THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, THOUGH IT HASSLOWED ITS PROGRESSION SINCE ITS 18Z RUN.  THE 00Z ECMWF HASVIRTUALLY ELIMINATED THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND VIRTUALLY STALLSTHE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY ONLY SEVEN OF THE 90 12ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SO ITS SOLUTION IS LIKELY TOO FARSOUTHWEST.  THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE TO DEALWITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.
 
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The HPC makes an interesting point about the Canadian shortwave and why the Euro is so much

faster closing off H500 than the other guidance.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

 

SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTPREFERENCE:  NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCETHE GUIDANCE AMPLIFIES THIS SYSTEM WITH TIME DUE TO INCREASINGRIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS ANUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA QUICKLY ON ITSHEELS, WHICH COULD LIMIT ITS AMPLITUDE AND/OR KEEP IT MOREPROGRESSIVE.  THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE, THOUGH IT HASSLOWED ITS PROGRESSION SINCE ITS 18Z RUN.  THE 00Z ECMWF HASVIRTUALLY ELIMINATED THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND VIRTUALLY STALLSTHE SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY ONLY SEVEN OF THE 90 12ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, SO ITS SOLUTION IS LIKELY TOO FARSOUTHWEST.  THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-ECMWF COMPROMISE TO DEALWITH LINGERING DETAIL ISSUES WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGECONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX FLOW PATTERN IN ITS VICINITY.

Kinda seems like a cover your behind sentence.

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They probably didn't want to pull the trigger outside 60 hrs until we get some agreement among all the guidance

on the speed of the closing off.

I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer here, but this has to be a perfectly timed solution for the area to get what the EURO is showing. The one thing going for us is the seperation of the wavelengths between the two streams. Will that be enough to help this thing really dig and close off to our south. IMO it can really go either way right now.

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Rightfully so too, GFS solution does make more sense given the setup, maybe a tad warm.

 

 

I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer here, but this has to be a perfectly timed solution for the area to get what the EURO is showing. The one thing going for us is the seperation of the wavelengths between the two streams. Will that be enough to help this thing really dig and close off to our south. IMO it can really go either way right now.

 

We still have a few model runs to go until we get to within the 60 hr window that the upper low closes off. So there is no rush to

jump on any one solution just yet. But we would need to thread the needle in a not so great pattern for the Euro to work out.

Boxing day was a thread the needle in a period following historic blocking. 

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not in NYC - would rather believe Alan Kasper who says mainly rain 

He did not say that -  He said snow overspreading NJ thursday night and changing to rain in south jersey and maybe central jersey. More snow to the north.

 

Alan is extremely conservative and once all models agree he will be on board

 

Please dont stretch the truth.

 

Rossi

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I don't know, I'd actually feel more comfortable having the GFS/GGEM/UK on my side rather than the Euro, as superior as it may be to other global models, it isn't godly. If the 12z models don't make a MAJOR step (we are running out of time to make baby steps) towards the Euro's upper air setup, I'd expect the 12z euro to back down from it's 0z solution. 

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