PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This is why I just ignore the GFS 3 days out with its SE bias . The GFS will come to the Euro . You are looking at places on Long Island to 18 inches and Boston with an outside shot of 30 if the Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Damnnnn. That is nice. I just wish the euro had more support for this solution. You have support the Euro .And thats all you will need 2 days out . Chill and dont look to the GFS as insurance . Its a lagger and comes late to every Northeast snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's just odd to see what the Euro depicts given the indicies presented. We'll have a slightly negative AO and a slightly positive PNA/NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 curious how were the gefs? didnt see them mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 It's just odd to see what the Euro depicts given the indicies presented. We'll have a slightly negative AO and a slightly positive PNA/NAO. This is when you go to the drawing board. Models are showing an east based NAO, a decent ridge out west which the euro and other models are trending better with, and of course the MJO, which is in a prime phase for an east coast storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have support the Euro .And thats all you will need 2 days out . Chill and dont look to the GFS as insurance . Its a lagger and comes late to every Northeast snowstorm We would all feel a lot more comfortable if the other models gave in to the Euro because if the Euro trends the other way or toward the other models, then we're screwed. (A very realistic possibility). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 curious how were the gefs? didnt see them mentioned http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep24084.gif (Total Precip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep24084.gif (Total Precip) thanks. it'll be interesting to see the euro ensembles and the later nam/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anything possible , I go back to 1982 - 1996 - 2003 - 2005 - and yes 2010 , The GFS had each of those systems SE of us just 2 days before . Now I would much rather focus on the pattern as oppose to who caves . If anything tonite , I was more worried about a track too close to the coast and not an escape . I just think the GFS makes this mistake over and over again . Again at this point it will be like waiting at the finish line for you`re fat friend to come accross , thats what will happen when the NAM and GFS come north and west for me later at 12z or 0z tonite thanks. it'll be interesting to see the euro ensembles and the later nam/gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You may be looking at Hurricane type wind gusts from Eastern Long Island out to the Cape and on into Boston . And places in Southern New England under convention could see a 30 spot at its max. Epic ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What would be start and ending time on this per euro? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You may be looking at Hurricane type wind gusts from Eastern Long Island out to the Cape and on into Boston . And places in Southern New England under convention could see a 30 spot at its max. Epic ..... this is really beginning to look like a rather dangerous event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 im still having some trouble buying this long durations event as euro depicts in what has been a progressive pattern, ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What would be start and ending time on this per euro? Thanks Its a 24 hour event , Starts sometime Fri mid morning ? not 100 perc sure . EARTHLIGHT could prob firm that up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 im still having some trouble buying this long durations event as euro depicts in what has been a progressive pattern, ... It's still a couple days or so out... things will become clearer shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 new SREFS just made a huge jump towards a more amplified solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wow, definitely looks very similar to the earlier 12z Euro Ens. I'm in the lower Hudson Valley, is there a sharp cutoff? I know I'm not in the city, but this is still the spot I read everything. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Big jump towards the euro at H5. Verbatim the SREFS are a bit warm but the trends are good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Euro ensembles should be coming out in a few min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 from the NE thread "Hard to tell...it looks NYC does ok....esp for the 2nd half of the storm....ensmeble mean is always dangerous, but I think NYC gets a good warning event on the ensembles...LI looks even better" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 from the NE thread "Hard to tell...it looks NYC does ok....esp for the 2nd half of the storm....ensmeble mean is always dangerous, but I think NYC gets a good warning event on the ensembles...LI looks even better" You may see Blizzard Warnings up over Long Island on FRI the CCB after it starts as rain is intense and some parts may gust to Hurricane Force . If parts of the Island saw 12 - 18 , I dont think it would shock me . In Boston , DT says 50 -50 they get into there top 5 with this , thats 25 plus . so some insane numbers once you go North and East . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Without going overboard at this stage, I can certainly see the NYC metro region getting a solid 8-12" snowstorm if the Euro is right with the possibility for higher amounts, even Philly would see accumulating snow. Today is going to be an important day model wise since we are now closing in on 48 hours or so before the start of this event. Regardless of the outcome I think both NYC and Philly will see snow at some point during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You may see Blizzard Warnings up over Long Island on FRI the CCB after it starts as rain is intense and some parts may gust to Hurricane Force . If parts of the Island saw 12 - 18 , I dont think it would shock me . In Boston , DT says 50 -50 they get into there top 5 with this , thats 25 plus . so some insane numbers once you go North and East . the thought of possible blizzards warnings after the last two years....is just amazing but I'd be happy with anything that does better than these past few "storms".... just something with a little more substance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 laughable solution on the nam, not that i didnt expect it anyway. Terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 laughable solution on the nam, not that i didnt expect it anyway. Terrible model For some reason raleighwx is way behind/not working tonight. Is it weirder than the 0z run was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For some reason raleighwx is way behind/not working tonight. Is it weirder than the 0z run was? Yeah it's really out there. The new srefs were amped so the nam should start catching on but it's at the bottom of my list right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Nam keeps the streams separate which is slightly plausible at this point but the entire solution seems whacked out. lol now watch it be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 You have support the Euro .And thats all you will need 2 days out . Chill and dont look to the GFS as insurance . Its a lagger and comes late to every Northeast snowstorm Exactly this. The GFS has SE biases and overdoing primary biases in these setups at this range always has and always will. Euro will end up embarassing the GFS on this one if the GFS doesn't come around to the Euro solution (whatever that ends up being) eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here's a comparison between the Euro Op and Euro Ensm for 72 and 96 hours wrt H500 and cutoff locations....would really love to see hour 84, though. Mean is a little faster, but it looks like the impacts for the area would be similar to the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Here's a comparison between the Euro Op and Euro Ensm for 72 and 96 hours wrt H500 and cutoff locations....would really love to see hour 84, though. Mean is a little faster, but it looks like the impacts for the area would be similar to the OP run. ecm_z500_anom_east_4.png ecm_eps_z500a_east_4.png ecm_z500_anom_east_5.png ecm_eps_z500a_east_5.png Hr 84 cuts off 500mb over the BM on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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