Friday February 8th Storm Potential

[GD0815]

3/15/99 is the best example, absolutely atrocious airmass in place and we went over to snow in the CCB...thats what it will take in this system, if we miss the CCB we get nothing, in reality if we miss the CCB we won't get much rain either LOL.

yah assuming the gfs depiction.....but the ccb is pretty consistent on  most models.    and this airmass is much bettter than 3/15/99

[Storm At Sea]

3/15/99 was a thread the needle situation. I remember it very distinctly. The VV's were through the roof and the convective nature was absurd...also....one thing you fail to point out....that was MID MARCH....big big differences between convective potential in early Feb. and mid March.

yah assuming the gfs depiction.....but the ccb is pretty consistent on  most models.    and this airmass is much bettter than 3/15/99

[dbc]

The problem is having the 850 mb low in Upstate NY. It really kicks us out of the game pretty abruptly. If someone is in the Poconos...they can salvage snow with a decaying 850 mb low over ROC and transferring. If someone is in Trenton or EWR, it doesn't snow. You flood too many levels and get cold rain.

Again that is if you believe the GFS depiction. Why should I believe it is correct with the 850 low placement, strength and when it dies at this stage when this model has the worst bias in the history of mankind with dieing primaries when there is a coastal transfer at this range.

[Storm At Sea]

Euro also has the 850 mb low over WNY. It transfers earlier, but still floods the Coastal Plain with warm air at many levels.

 

Again that is if you believe the GFS depiction. Why should I believe it is correct with the 850 low placement, strength and when it dies at this stage when this model has the worst bias in the history of mankind with dieing primaries when there is a coastal transfer at this range.

[GD0815]

3/15/99 was a thread the needle situation. I remember it very distinctly. The VV's were through the roof and the convective nature was absurd...also....one thing you fail to point out....that was MID MARCH....big big differences between convective potential in early Feb. and mid March.

this cuts both ways though, prime snow  season,much better antecedent airmass, etc,i agree that the problems on the gfs are real,and  as depicted that is nota big snow event i just dont necessarily think you are right about rain/sno

[jm1220]

Again that is if you believe the GFS depiction. Why should I believe it is correct with the 850 low placement, strength and when it dies at this stage when this model has the worst bias in the history of mankind with dieing primaries when there is a coastal transfer at this range.

The problem is that the primary doesn't die until the phase happens. That's why we need it to happen sooner. As long as the northern stream is a separate entity, the primary will stay alive and well. We wouldn't need a ton for it to be better than the GFS had, but we need about a 6-12hr earlier phase for most of us to be in the game.

[Storm At Sea]

These Miller B's are almost always New England specials. There's simply not enough room across the CONUS to keep two significant troughs at bay. One is going to get forced out quickly....and it will probably be the EC coastal bombing about 6-8 hours too late for the I-95.

 

I agree, that ridge axis and trough to me scream a setup that bombs too late. The difference between a glorified cold front with rain/crud vs. a blizzard won't be much though. A lot of New England looks to be in a good spot. Wish I could be there.

[GD0815]

Euro also has the 850 mb low over WNY. It transfers earlier, but still floods the Coastal Plain with warm air at many levels.

the early transfer is key though, there is a reason most of the area gets  a nice snowfall  per the euro, if the transfer happens as the gf s depicts,we are essentially screwed

[MJO812]

Euro also has the 850 mb low over WNY. It transfers earlier, but still floods the Coastal Plain with warm air at many levels.

 

Euro is rain to accumulating snow here.

[Heisy]

Yea if the northern stream dived farter SE people in NYC & PHL would have a much better chance. These are the types of storms where you need them to dive and close off. I've given up for my backyard (Philly) I'm booking a hotel in BOS 

[GD0815]

These Miller B's are almost always New England specials. There's simply not enough room across the CONUS to keep two significant troughs at bay. One is going to get forced out quickly....and it will probably be the EC coastal bombing about 6-8 hours too late for the I-95.

ny does decently with miller b's, this isnt dc......and careful with i-95 because im guessing you dont mean too late for boston.

[SnowGoose69]

Canadian too far east so we do not get any snows.

[MJO812]

Canadian too far east so we do not get any snows.

 

 

We  get rain. Coastal SNE also gets rain then snow.

[dbc]

The problem is that the primary doesn't die until the phase happens. That's why we need it to happen sooner. As long as the northern stream is a separate entity, the primary will stay alive and well. We wouldn't need a ton for it to be better than the GFS had, but we need about a 6-12hr earlier phase for most of us to be in the game.

Agreed.

[Storm At Sea]

I'm starting to think that we get caught in between, which is the norm for Miller B's around here....we get a quick thump rain or slop snow (1-2 inches)....over to rain/drizzle...and then done.....meanwhile LI and NE get slammed with blizzard conditions.

Canadian too far east so we do not get any snows.

[CooL]

I'm starting to think that we get caught in between, which is the norm for Miller B's around here....we get a quick thump rain or slop snow (1-2 inches)....over to rain/drizzle...and then done.....meanwhile LI and NE get slammed with blizzard conditions.

This is a miller A

[SnowGoose69]

I'm starting to think that we get caught in between, which is the norm for Miller B's around here....we get a quick thump rain or slop snow (1-2 inches)....over to rain/drizzle...and then done.....meanwhile LI and NE get slammed with blizzard conditions.

 

I'd be amazed if this starts as snow, only way it happens is as I said earlier, some sort of surprise overrunning courtesy of the big high to the north and the ejecting shortwaves out of Mid-atlantic

[Storm At Sea]

Check the Kocin book...it's technically an A/B combo....he talks about them in there.

 

This is a miller A

[GD0815]

s isnt a traditional pure gulf storm, i  sort of see a hybrid argument, but i think of this as having more miller b characteristics

This is a miller A

[MJO812]

DT
 

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN ? this run of the GFS has the Low coming a little further north then what the 18z GFS was showing ... but it is also a bit warmer at the low levels. and because of that this run of the GFS has lowered snow amounts a bit over eastern New England.

The actual SNOW forecast from THIS run of the GFS shows a widespread 4 to 8 inches covering all of New England into Northeast New Jersey and New York City and the far northeast corner of Pennsylvania up by Wilkes Barre Scranton. Over Eastern New England the model still shows an area of 8 to 18" of snow.

The model a choice here clearly remains the European model followed by the Canadian to lessor degree. Let's see what the 0z EURO and Canadian show over the next 2 hours.

[winterwarlock]

3/15/99 is the best example, absolutely atrocious airmass in place and we went over to snow in the CCB...thats what it will take in this system, if we miss the CCB we get nothing, in reality if we miss the CCB we won't get much rain either LOL.

 

 

thank you...I was trying to remember the date when describing this event to someone else early today but definitely recall this storm...rain during the day but then late afternoon around sunset changed to snow and it was wet heavy snow accumulated I think 3-6 inches in my part of Central Jersey. It came down so hard that it pretty much stuck immediately decide all day rain.

[ORH_wxman]

Check the Kocin book...it's technically an A/B combo....he talks about them in there.

 

 

Yes, the primary hangs on way too long to be considered a traditional Miller A. Classic Miller B is primary into OH Valley and then secondary becomes dominant after that point. That is basically what we have in this setup. The secondary technically gets stronger a bit earlier than the classic cases, but its still a storm with a lot of Miller B characteristics

[Storm At Sea]

No, that is absolutely not true. It did not rain "all day."  We wet-bulbed that event. Precip in C NJ started off as drizzle/light rain for the first 15 minutes (around 3PM) and as  dynamic cooling along with heavier precip moved in, it RAPIDLY changed to heavy snow. It had nothing to do with synoptic placement of high/low.

 

thank you...I was trying to remember the date when describing this event to someone else early today but definitely recall this storm...rain during the day but then late afternoon around sunset changed to snow and it was wet heavy snow accumulated I think 3-6 inches in my part of Central Jersey. It came down so hard that it pretty much stuck immediately decide all day rain.

[Amped]

New rule, to be a Miller anything it there's gotta be at least 1" for Philly.

[MJO812]

0z GGEM

[Sn0waddict]

GEFS anyone?

[Amped]

Closed H7 primary low on the GFS  Goes well northeast of Detroit. Move it south to about Youngstown and NYC would have a much better shot.

[SACRUS]

0z GGEM

 

precip frames (rain for our area) but nice hit into New Englnd

 

 

[Dsnowx53]

The Euro looks even more amplified with the ridge and northern stream than it was last run. 

[MJO812]

Northern branch is really digging in on this run so far through 48. It's also a little big colder and better ridging in the west.