IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is probably pulling it's usual crap of losing storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 We want more amped and a quick phase. If the phase is delayed, we essentially get a glorified frontal passage. Yep and that is what the 18z gfs is showing, nothing more than light snow, phases way too late, minimal qpf. Bad run for snow lovers that is for sure. I really hope this isn't the beginning of a trend for 0z tonight, but like I said, my hopes weren't overly high for this in our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I've seen the 18z GFS do this many times before. 18z GFS runs tend to come in too amped and phased, or the exact opposite. I had a strong feeling the 18z GFS was going to do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is probably pulling it's usual crap of losing storms. It didn't lose it, it's still there. Just less digging and a much later phase. Not a good trend if 00z has this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Its right there. Check the precip pattern. Not far off from something bigger. Not saying it will happen, but how many times have we seen this. 3 days out still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The optimism of NYC posters ("I honestly think this storm will be historic") is just stunning. None if the other big eastern forums-- midatlantic DC-BWI, PHL or SNE exhibit this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm not sure the "SE bias" applies here, because the reason the GFS was further SE was because it did not dig the northern stream wave as much as previous runs. If you want to go with the Euro because it's the better model, feel free to do that. But this is not the typical "SE bias" problem. If anything, the GFS has had tendencies to dig the northern stream too much. It's certainly a good sign that the Euro is as gung-ho as it was with digging the northern stream. Perhaps the Euro would have a better handle on the energy diving down into the western States, which pumps up our rolling ridge and provides the chute for the northern stream wave to go. Or, perhaps the pattern is too progressive to allow the northern stream to dig as much as the Euro was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The optimism of NYC posters ("I honestly think this storm will be historic") is just stunning. None if the other big eastern forums-- midatlantic DC-BWI, PHL or SNE exhibit this I did not see anyone in this forum say this was going to be historic. In the New England thread yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The optimism of NYC posters ("I honestly think this storm will be historic") is just stunning. None if the other big eastern forums-- midatlantic DC-BWI, PHL or SNE exhibit this The optimism of NYC posters ("I honestly think this storm will be historic") is just stunning. None if the other big eastern forums-- midatlantic DC-BWI, PHL or SNE exhibit this Well this is NEW YORK and our balls are bigger than everyones elses . now you know We go big , or we go home .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yep and that is what the 18z gfs is showing, nothing more than light snow, phases way too late, minimal qpf. Bad run for snow lovers that is for sure. I really hope this isn't the beginning of a trend for 0z tonight, but like I said, my hopes weren't overly high for this in our area... Like I've been saying, late tomorrow is a better time to really start getting excited about anything. Maybe even later given the progressive pattern. Tons of chaos potential here and many solutions still on the table. The Euro's subpar record this year is also worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS is in a perfect spot 4 days out , its always SE with big storms . You dont want to be in the bullseye on the gfs 4 days out , the reason being it ALWAYS CORRECTS NORTH AND WEST .... come on now , how many times do you have to see it do this . Relax , the answer is with the Euro , look at the GFS in a day ...... 4 days out? Today is Tuesday and the storm is Friday. That's about 72 hours or 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I'm not sure the "SE bias" applies here, because the reason the GFS was further SE was because it did not dig the northern stream wave as much as previous runs. If you want to go with the Euro because it's the better model, feel free to do that. But this is not the typical "SE bias" problem. If anything, the GFS has had tendencies to dig the northern stream too much. It's certainly a good sign that the Euro is as gung-ho as it was with digging the northern stream. Perhaps the Euro would have a better handle on the energy diving down into the western States, which pumps up our rolling ridge and provides the chute for the northern stream wave to go. Or, perhaps the pattern is too progressive to allow the northern stream to dig as much as the Euro was showing. Yeah, could go either way. But it wouldn't be the first time this year that we've seen these northern vorts just dissapear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I did not see anyone in this forum say this was going to be historic. In the New England thread yes.. Someone here did say it, on one of the previous two pages, unless they've deleted their post by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Alan kasper was the only on air met/weather person who was worried about the forecast for snow changing to rain the night of 1/19/78...After watching him at 11pm and walking around in 4" of snow near midnight with heavy snow falling I knew we were going to get a big event...We got 14" before it mixed the next morning at dawn... I think he was the only on air TV met back then that did his own forecasts and did not rely on the NWS - only one other was a meteorologist -Dr. Frank Field - another one had the title of Doctor which turned out to be false - Dr. Bob Harris - think Tex Antione was a cartoonist originally .................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Has all the energy been sampled yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 4 days out? Today is Tuesday and the storm is Friday. That's about 72 hours or 3 days. Yeh even 3 days , should have edited it , the GFS has a habit of running the front max out on EC storms , only to correct north and west . You will see , follow the Euro , when the Euro heads east then I worry , not the GFS its common . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 . Someone here did say it, on one of the previous two pages, unless they've deleted their post by now. SNE is going bonkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Let me make clear that I hope this thread gets clobbered on Friday (I may even come up from DC to join in). But there's the strong stench of entitlement I sense here than in any other place on AmWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The optimism of NYC posters ("I honestly think this storm will be historic") is just stunning. None if the other big eastern forums-- midatlantic DC-BWI, PHL or SNE exhibit this I saw one post with those words...if you want to base the individual forums off of one poster than I have a feeling your ideas of the other regions would be different as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeh even 3 days , should have edited it , the GFS has a habit of running the front max out on EC storms , only to correct north and west . You will see , follow the Euro , when the Euro heads east then I worry , not the GFS its common . I don't think that the OP Euro track is the problem. It's that it may be closing off the 500 mb low 12 hrs too soon which would shift the CCB action northeast of the 12z OP run for a new England jackpot. It would be a little too progressive for decent rain to accumulating snow with the center closing off north of us. This would have to close off in a hurry like Christmas 2002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Let me make clear that I hope this thread gets clobbered on Friday (I may even come up from DC to join in). But there's the strong stench of entitlement I sense here than in any other place on AmWx. Nah , lil irrational due to starvation . And being at a mid latitude on the coastal plain , its always dicey here we know better . If you`re gona take the Amtrack up keep going , take it into Back Bay , thats where the real show will be . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I don't think that the OP Euro track is the problem. It's that it may be closing off the 500 mb low 12 hrs too soon which would shift the CCB action northeast of the 12z OP run for a new England jackpot. It would be a little too progressive for decent rain to accumulating snow with the center closing off north of us. Agreed , the longer its open the longer the mid levels stay warm , saw it on Dec 30 th . The Euro closes it off as fast as i think it can . So if theres an error , it closes later I agree with you . Just when I see the GFS south and east , I just say ok , thats coming west , even if its a wetter scenario . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Agreed , the longer its open the longer the mid levels stay warm , saw it on Dec 30 th . The Euro closes it off as fast as i think it can . So if theres an error , it closes later I agree with you . Just when I see the GFS south and east , I just say ok , thats coming west , even if its a wetter scenario . I would have more confidence in the OP Euro solution with a west based block and stronger STJ to force the vorts to phase earlier. The split flow leaves you with the impression that the OP Euro is about 12 hrs too fast with the phase and close off. But I'll wait until we get within 48-60 hrs for the models to have a better handle on the situation with so many things that have to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Certainly going to be very interesting to see what the 0z runs do later tonight, especially the Euro. While I am not completely sold on the idea of a snowstorm for the NYC metro region just yet its hard not to get a bit excited with what the Euro is showing. Hopefully the Euro has come out of its winter slump so to speak to regain its title as king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I was one of his biggest fans...He used to appear on the Uncle Floyd show...Another favorite from 30 years ago...They called him Allan Kasteroil... Alan was and is a very good meteorologist. He was one of the few that actually used to go into the synoptics of the weather. I think maybe the producers told him they didn't think the public was interested so he stopped doing it. Since that time he has come off as just another on air weather guy. He does have a lot of knowledge regarding New Jersey climatology which I respect a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Steve D. http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2013/02/05/snow-storms-are-brewing/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z gefs are warmer and further se fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z gefs are warmer and further se fwiw. Not a big deal right now. 0z should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The way this pattern has been a late phasing makes sense but will see what happens in tonight's models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The difference I noticed between the 12z GFS and 18z GFS is the 850's are cooler on the 18z GFS, would expect that with a more SE LP. But surface temps are also a lot warmer on the 18z GFS. KISP goes to 45 degrees at 2m, which makes no sense. Where is it getting all that low level warmth? Certainly not the ocean which is in the upper 30's, low 40's. 10m winds are east at the onset of precip. I don't recall any snowstorms with winds starting out of the east, though it is forecast to change to north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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