PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Day 8 doesnt look too shabby either , Man if you can get this one in the slot , and next weeks to roll in , how would that be for the ultimate turn around. I think HPC is smart to start here , , they have days to nudge em up if need be , Euro is on the top end of the range with SNE seeing 3.5 inches of frozen QPF , dont think that has ever happened so they have to see more than one run to go all in like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Upton: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A RELATIVELY QUIET SET-UP ON THURSDAY LOOKS TO GIVE WAY TO MUCHMORE ACTIVE WEATHER BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.STARTING ON THURSDAY...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING FARTHERNORTH AND EAST INTO CANADA...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THEMIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES STATES. THE DAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...WITHHIGH TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL AS 850 TEMPS RUN AROUND -6 TO -8C.BY THURSDAY NIGHT...INGREDIENTS START COMING TOGETHER FOR A BUSY ENDTO THE WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL BE PROPAGATING TO THEEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHESTHROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. THE 12Z GFS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF COMINGCLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION...BY SHOWING A DEEPER NORTHERN STREAMWAVE THAT ENHANCES PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE ON FRIDAY.CONSIDERING A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO ENHANCED THE PHASINGOVER PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTIONOVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT STRONGSURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTOFRIDAY NIGHT. A MAJORITY OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLESOLUTIONS MOVE THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR OR JUST SOUTHEAST OFTHE 40/70 BENCHMARK FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE ISINCREASING IN THE AREA REALIZING HEAVIER PRECIP DURING THIS TIMEPERIOD. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY ON FRIDAY. NONETHELESS...HIGHUNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE EVENT.AS FOR THE PRECIP TYPE...THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OFUNCERTAINTY. DESPITE THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PLACEDACROSS CANADA IN GOOD POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING...THEWEAKENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS LOW-LEVEL WINDSFROM GAINING MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.THEREFORE... EXPECT PRECIP TO START OFF AS SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THEAREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO RAIN ACROSS COASTALSECTIONS ON FRIDAY. USED ECMWF 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AS ASTARTING POINT AND THEN ADJUSTED P-TYPES FROM THERE. AFTER LOOKINGAT LOW-LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...BELIEVE THE GFS CONTINUES TOOVERESTIMATE THE WAA ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER EVEN THECOOLER ECMWF THICKNESSES SUGGEST MIXING ACROSS A SIGNIFICANTPORTION OF THE AREA FRIDAY. WITH A DEEPENING OFFSHORE LOWHOWEVER... POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT DYNAMIC COOLING COULD ERODE THEWARM AIR QUICKER...BUT DID NOT GET TOO DETAILED AT THIS STAGE.COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPTRANSITIONING BACK TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTSFOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOWFRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THEPRECIP...THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE GUSTY EASTERLYWINDS ON FRIDAY...TURNING MORE NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY NIGHT.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THEWEEKEND...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. BY MONDAY...BUILDING HEIGHTSALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFFSHORE WILL RESULT INTEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL. AN APPROACHING WAVE AND FRONTALSYSTEM WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Very impressive for an ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. Hard to argue against that forecaster who did them though. 'Kocin' The one and only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hard to argue against that forecaster who did them though. 'Kocin' The one and only. I bet he is giddy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. As Don said, only through 0Z Saturday. Another 0.60 comes after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hard to argue against that forecaster who did them though. 'Kocin' The one and only. I agree. It was a great seminar when he came to Kean University a few years ago. I miss his winter storm coverages on The Weather Channel. Now the Weather Channel is a joke. NWS going with rain here, odd. Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I agree. It was a great seminar when he came to Kean University a few years ago. I miss his winter storm coverages on The Weather Channel. Now the Weather Channel is a joke. NWS going with rain here, odd. Friday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 70%. why is it odd ? Did you read their AFD ? Makes alot of sense - they do leave the door open for some changes though - MT Holly does not they say all rain after snow to start thursday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 why is it odd ? Did you read their AFD ? Makes alot of sense - they do leave the door open for some changes though - MT Holly does not they say all rain after snow to start thursday night No I didn't get a chance to read it. I guess they are favoring the GFS/GGEM. But the Euro has been so consistent it's very hard to bet against. I'm pretty far inland here. The forecast for Ramsey out of Upton which is to my east is mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No I didn't get a chance to read it. I guess they are favoring the GFS/GGEM. But the Euro has been so consistent it's very hard to bet against. I'm pretty far inland here. The forecast for Ramsey out of Upton which is to my east is mostly snow. There's still time for a lot of this to change. We need a ton to go right for us to even have a shot at a real event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No I didn't get a chance to read it. I guess they are favoring the GFS/GGEM. But the Euro has been so consistent it's very hard to bet against. I'm pretty far inland here. The forecast for Ramsey out of Upton which is to my east is mostly snow. NOAA and the TV media all favor the GFS. That's why they are always backtracking on their forecasts. They will never learn. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's still time for a lot of this to change. We need a ton to go right for us to even have a shot at a real event here. I disagree. This isn't one of those situations where if it tracks closer to the coast it's rain. A track closer to the coast and an earlier phase will help us increase snow amounts greatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NOAA and the TV media all favor the GFS. That's why they are always backtracking on their forecasts. They will never learn. Rossi I don't know about that. The GFS has probably scored slightly better than the Euro this winter. I tell you what, if the Euro doesn't even come close verifying, especially up in Boston, this will be one of its worst defeats ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Jeezus... The 12z ECMWF EPS Control is absolutely insane. It's even more amped up and further west than the 12z ECM Operational. @ 78 hours there's a 998mb low off of the Delmarva @ 84 hours there's a 986mb low due south of LI and the entire Tri-state is getting demolished @ 90 hours there's a 978mb bomb SW of the BM with insane QPF from CNJ-BOS @ 96 hours the low moves due east and the entire area is still seeing moderate to heavy snow. I would pay to have this verify. Easy MECS-HECS from NYC-BOS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Jeezus... The 12z ECMWF EPS Control is absolutely insane. It's even more amped up and further west than the 12z ECM Operational. @ 78 hours there's a 998mb low off of the Delmarva @ 84 hours there's a 986mb low due south of LI and the entire Tri-state is getting demolished @ 90 hours there's a 978mb bomb SW of the BM with insane QPF from CNJ-BOS @ 96 hours the low moves due east and the entire area is still seeing moderate to heavy snow. I would pay to have this verify. Easy MECS-HECS from NYC-BOS... How I wish this was 24hrs out instead of 72-96hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NOAA and the TV media all favor the GFS. That's why they are always backtracking on their forecasts. They will never learn. Rossi Alan Kasper as of this morning is forecasting just snow or a wintry mix - haven't heard any updates from him during the day but after he saw all of todays guidance can't see how he could change his thinking yet http://nj1015.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Jeezus... The 12z ECMWF EPS Control is absolutely insane. It's even more amped up and further west than the 12z ECM Operational. @ 78 hours there's a 998mb low off of the Delmarva @ 84 hours there's a 986mb low due south of LI and the entire Tri-state is getting demolished @ 90 hours there's a 978mb bomb SW of the BM with insane QPF from CNJ-BOS @ 96 hours the low moves due east and the entire area is still seeing moderate to heavy snow. I would pay to have this verify. Easy MECS-HECS from NYC-BOS... That impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Alan Kasper as of this morning is forecasting just snow or a wintry mix - haven't heard any updates from him during the day but after he saw all of todays guidance can't see how he could change his thinking yet http://nj1015.com/weather/ I work with Alan and he will not until he feels very confident. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Honestly, he sleeps in the afternoon. Other than snoozing, there's not much going on right now. Alan Kasper as of this morning is forecasting just snow or a wintry mix - haven't heard any updates from him during the day but after he saw all of todays guidance can't see how he could change his thinking yet http://nj1015.com/weather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That impressive? Oh yeah. It's some of the most hardcore weather porn I've seen since 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 yikes, the 18Z GFS is no where near as amped with the northern stream as it was at 12Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS Time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I work with Alan and he will not until he feels very confident. Rossi He was the best NYC on air television forecaster of the 1970's here. I believe he mostly did the 10 pm slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Oh yeah. It's some of the most hardcore weather porn I've seen since 09-10. That sentence is what dreams are made of. ( I assume you mean 10-11) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How I wish this was 24hrs out instead of 72-96hrs... I'll go with 12 hours out and having every other model completely change every one of it's solutions at that point and come to this solution you reference would be better, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 60 18z gfs 1012 in sc. 540 line through Phl surface along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Jeezus... The 12z ECMWF EPS Control is absolutely insane. It's even more amped up and further west than the 12z ECM Operational. @ 78 hours there's a 998mb low off of the Delmarva @ 84 hours there's a 986mb low due south of LI and the entire Tri-state is getting demolished @ 90 hours there's a 978mb bomb SW of the BM with insane QPF from CNJ-BOS @ 96 hours the low moves due east and the entire area is still seeing moderate to heavy snow. I would pay to have this verify. Easy MECS-HECS from NYC-BOS... Yes, it is pretty crazy. I just saw it too. And I will tell you one thing. The Euro Control run did better with the actual track and impact of the October 29, 2011 snowstorm here than even the operational run. Already today, it was closer to the coast and quicker developing than the operational run on the 0z run and we saw the 12 operational run trend toward it. I am guessing we will see the same thing with the 0z run tonight. I honestly believe this storm may be historic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I work with Alan and he will not until he feels very confident. Rossi I was one of his biggest fans...He used to appear on the Uncle Floyd show...Another favorite from 30 years ago...They called him Allan Kasteroil... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Northern stream is weaker this run but the costal is not as amp as the euro through hr 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 69 1000 east of Norfolk... Light qpf. 850's over NYC and surface north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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