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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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From a meteorologist in the New England Forum:

 

We'll see it slow down at the end of this week. Once that PV moves west, the flow will become more amplified. That may mean a cutter near the 10th-12th or so, but then we'll start seeing more storms coming out of the sw an srn plains towards mid month. Of course it means not every storm may give us snow...but the regime does change. It certainly won't be as cold, and we'll have more storms I think. Nobody can say for sure this far out if it will be a snowy.

 

 

 

i hesitate to even mention this..... but.... bastardi likes this idea as well....... of course he implies it will be snowy.

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GFS was closer to the ecm for the 8th-9th storm potential.  It'll be interesting to see the the GEFS and euro later this afternoon.  

 

The lakes cutter remains a consistent signal on most guidance for the 10-12th.

That system is a lake cutter , it's just the trough pulling back and retiring after. That storm goes to the lakes , it turns above normal for 4 days or so , they a new trough is back. It's not a pattern change to warm for good. Just a lul. But cold doesnt always equal snow , so we will need some southern stream help mid month.
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It is slightly further off shore too, so if this phases or deepens a bit quicker we are in business. I think now it is a good bet that we will have a full phase, but it may not be in time for all the fun, but it is still 5 days away and it gets a phasing low up from the Carolinas to off the NJ coast, to south of Long Island, then to Cape Cod. It gets to south of Long Island as a sub 1000mb, then up to Cape Cod or the Benchmark as a sub 992mb.

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It has the low starting to develop on this run off the Delmarva, and then brings it up about 50 miles off the Jersey Coast.  The prior run it had the low scraping the Jersey coast and onshore the Delmarva, so this track was better, but it phases the two lows a bit later, which is not good for us. 

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That has to phase earlier and there will be cold air. The 2 streams phase too late on this run.

Yes but an earlier phase means a track closer to the coast because it will take on a negative tilt faster. Also even before the storm the bl is torches because you have a departing high pressure off shore switching the winds to a southerly direction
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Yes but an earlier phase means a track closer to the coast because it will take on a negative tilt faster. Also even before the storm the bl is torches because you have a departing high pressure off shore switching the winds to a southerly direction

Definitely agree. This event has bad synoptic conditions and would take nearly perfect timing for the coast to see any snow.

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I think this system is the perfect example of how the GFS has a tendency to do better with the northern stream systems, but the ECMWF does better with the southern stream systems, hence why the GFS's accuracy scores have been higher in the 7-10 day range lately, because these storms have been mostly northern stream.  Now we are starting to see southern stream energy starting with the day 5 system, so I can imagine that the EC will start performing better again in the longer range. 

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Antecedent cold is bad once again...even with the nice secondary track the primary low and less than stellar prior airmass lets the mid levels warm up fairly dramatically... with WAA bringing the 850 0c line all the way to the VT/NH border basically by 126 hrs.

Are you saying the pattern that has prevailed all winter is going to continue? Shocked!

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Antecedent cold is bad once again...even with the nice secondary track the primary low and less than stellar prior airmass lets the mid levels warm up fairly dramatically... with WAA bringing the 850 0c line all the way to the VT/NH border basically by 126 hrs.

 

Hi, it is great to hear from you again! Even if you are not saying what we want to hear. 

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HM's thoughts just posted in the Philly forum:

 

I was wrong with my medium range thoughts last week in the sense that the Pacific Monster would come fully out to be the possible threat in the 2/5-10 long range window. However, the general idea of that window is still okay with the threat around 2/8-9. Models were basically weakening this piece of southern energy last week; but, the slower arrival of the Pac Low gives room for this feature to stay amplified as it spins off. The stronger this system, the quicker the transfer of the northern low to the coast. This could possibly be a classic rain to heavy snow scenario, quite easily.

After we break with warmth for a bit, we'll get the baroclinic zone back to the coast 2/12-16 for maybe another threat. It is quite possible that nothing major occurs with this as the front hits the coast and that we wait until a possible MT induced PNA spike around 2/20. I'll comment more tomorrow about that once I look more deeply into things.

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HM's reply to my question about the Friday potential and if this was the storm that he was talking about:

 

The entire thing was confusing and too muddled. The Pacific Low kept slowing down in the trends which gives room for the southern s/w that spins off it to amplify. Last week, this feature was basically being obliterated from the compressing flow as the PAC LOW came barreling in. So technically, no this 2/8-9 system is not the one I was talking about; but, this is the threat I was trying to portray from the long range.

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12z Euro Ensemble mean continues to be south and east of the operational run, and therefore colder as well.  Wish I had in between the 120 and 144 hrs, but in the New England forum, they said it runs it SE of the benchmark, with a tug toward toward New England, so it seems like it is similar to the operational run but just southeast of it and slightly colder. 

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post-1914-0-15899000-1359924667_thumb.gi

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12z Euro Ensemble mean continues to be south and east of the operational run, and therefore colder as well.  Wish I had in between the 120 and 144 hrs, but in the New England forum, they said it runs it SE of the benchmark, with a tug toward toward New England, so it seems like it is similar to the operational run but just southeast of it and slightly colder. 

 

goes from cape may to south of LI between 132 and 138

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The 12z control run of the Euro has the low about 100-150 miles off shore, much like the ensemble mean, and the 850 line only gets to just north of Long Island and NYC, and then along the NY/NJ border, staying south of CT, then it moves it south into N NJ, possibly for the end of the storm.  The 850 line is south of us just before the storm starts, just like the ensemble mean above looks, then it moves north to where I mentioned, then back south again on the back side.  It is really close.  I don't have surface temps yet though and they could be warm. 

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