green tube Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 From a meteorologist in the New England Forum: We'll see it slow down at the end of this week. Once that PV moves west, the flow will become more amplified. That may mean a cutter near the 10th-12th or so, but then we'll start seeing more storms coming out of the sw an srn plains towards mid month. Of course it means not every storm may give us snow...but the regime does change. It certainly won't be as cold, and we'll have more storms I think. Nobody can say for sure this far out if it will be a snowy. i hesitate to even mention this..... but.... bastardi likes this idea as well....... of course he implies it will be snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 GFS was closer to the ecm for the 8th-9th storm potential. It'll be interesting to see the the GEFS and euro later this afternoon. The lakes cutter remains a consistent signal on most guidance for the 10-12th. That system is a lake cutter , it's just the trough pulling back and retiring after. That storm goes to the lakes , it turns above normal for 4 days or so , they a new trough is back. It's not a pattern change to warm for good. Just a lul. But cold doesnt always equal snow , so we will need some southern stream help mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Some of the individual gefs members are more robust now for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z EC puts the low in the exact same spot with a phase, but no where near as deep as last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 So is it snow or rain for us? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 It is slightly further off shore too, so if this phases or deepens a bit quicker we are in business. I think now it is a good bet that we will have a full phase, but it may not be in time for all the fun, but it is still 5 days away and it gets a phasing low up from the Carolinas to off the NJ coast, to south of Long Island, then to Cape Cod. It gets to south of Long Island as a sub 1000mb, then up to Cape Cod or the Benchmark as a sub 992mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z EC puts the low in the exact same spot with a phase, but no where near as deep as last run. the southern low track is nice. The primary to the great lakes means no cold air and its all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 So is it snow or rain for us? Rossi rain, we need a quicker phase, but it is a slighly better track than the previous run, but it lost the strength a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 the southern low track is nice. The primary to the great lakes means no cold air and its all rain. We just need a quicker phase with that low, with the track of this run but the strength of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 We just need a quicker phase with that low, with the track of this run but the strength of the previous run. New England gets clobbered on the Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z EC puts the low in the exact same spot with a phase, but no where near as deep as last run. It's quite a bit east of last night actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 It has the low starting to develop on this run off the Delmarva, and then brings it up about 50 miles off the Jersey Coast. The prior run it had the low scraping the Jersey coast and onshore the Delmarva, so this track was better, but it phases the two lows a bit later, which is not good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 the southern low track is nice. The primary to the great lakes means no cold air and its all rain. That has to phase earlier and there will be cold air. The 2 streams phase too late on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 That has to phase earlier and there will be cold air. The 2 streams phase too late on this run. Yes but an earlier phase means a track closer to the coast because it will take on a negative tilt faster. Also even before the storm the bl is torches because you have a departing high pressure off shore switching the winds to a southerly direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Looks like rain or nada...cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Yes but an earlier phase means a track closer to the coast because it will take on a negative tilt faster. Also even before the storm the bl is torches because you have a departing high pressure off shore switching the winds to a southerly direction Definitely agree. This event has bad synoptic conditions and would take nearly perfect timing for the coast to see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 I think this system is the perfect example of how the GFS has a tendency to do better with the northern stream systems, but the ECMWF does better with the southern stream systems, hence why the GFS's accuracy scores have been higher in the 7-10 day range lately, because these storms have been mostly northern stream. Now we are starting to see southern stream energy starting with the day 5 system, so I can imagine that the EC will start performing better again in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Antecedent cold is bad once again...even with the nice secondary track the primary low and less than stellar prior airmass lets the mid levels warm up fairly dramatically... with WAA bringing the 850 0c line all the way to the VT/NH border basically by 126 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Antecedent cold is bad once again...even with the nice secondary track the primary low and less than stellar prior airmass lets the mid levels warm up fairly dramatically... with WAA bringing the 850 0c line all the way to the VT/NH border basically by 126 hrs. Are you saying the pattern that has prevailed all winter is going to continue? Shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Antecedent cold is bad once again...even with the nice secondary track the primary low and less than stellar prior airmass lets the mid levels warm up fairly dramatically... with WAA bringing the 850 0c line all the way to the VT/NH border basically by 126 hrs. Hi, it is great to hear from you again! Even if you are not saying what we want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 HM's thoughts just posted in the Philly forum: I was wrong with my medium range thoughts last week in the sense that the Pacific Monster would come fully out to be the possible threat in the 2/5-10 long range window. However, the general idea of that window is still okay with the threat around 2/8-9. Models were basically weakening this piece of southern energy last week; but, the slower arrival of the Pac Low gives room for this feature to stay amplified as it spins off. The stronger this system, the quicker the transfer of the northern low to the coast. This could possibly be a classic rain to heavy snow scenario, quite easily.After we break with warmth for a bit, we'll get the baroclinic zone back to the coast 2/12-16 for maybe another threat. It is quite possible that nothing major occurs with this as the front hits the coast and that we wait until a possible MT induced PNA spike around 2/20. I'll comment more tomorrow about that once I look more deeply into things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 The mean trough retreats and even though the center goes to the BM you easily warm all the mid levels. As progged it's a cold rain Happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just posted in the New England forum that the Euro ensembles are SE of the Benchmark with a tug toward New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 HM's reply to my question about the Friday potential and if this was the storm that he was talking about: The entire thing was confusing and too muddled. The Pacific Low kept slowing down in the trends which gives room for the southern s/w that spins off it to amplify. Last week, this feature was basically being obliterated from the compressing flow as the PAC LOW came barreling in. So technically, no this 2/8-9 system is not the one I was talking about; but, this is the threat I was trying to portray from the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z Euro Ensemble mean continues to be south and east of the operational run, and therefore colder as well. Wish I had in between the 120 and 144 hrs, but in the New England forum, they said it runs it SE of the benchmark, with a tug toward toward New England, so it seems like it is similar to the operational run but just southeast of it and slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 12z Euro Ensemble mean continues to be south and east of the operational run, and therefore colder as well. Wish I had in between the 120 and 144 hrs, but in the New England forum, they said it runs it SE of the benchmark, with a tug toward toward New England, so it seems like it is similar to the operational run but just southeast of it and slightly colder. goes from cape may to south of LI between 132 and 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Just found this. The 12z NOGAPS of all models also phases the two systems and puts the low in the same spot as the ECMWF on Friday. It is rain, but how often do the NOGAPS and the ECMWF look the same at 5 days out? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 The 12z control run of the Euro has the low about 100-150 miles off shore, much like the ensemble mean, and the 850 line only gets to just north of Long Island and NYC, and then along the NY/NJ border, staying south of CT, then it moves it south into N NJ, possibly for the end of the storm. The 850 line is south of us just before the storm starts, just like the ensemble mean above looks, then it moves north to where I mentioned, then back south again on the back side. It is really close. I don't have surface temps yet though and they could be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 You guys should read JB. He thinks its a very close call on Frdays storm And the one behind it should be colder -interesting to say the least, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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