earthlight Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should be noted that it collapses pretty rapidly from 78 hr to 84 hour. At 78 hr the 850 0c contour runs from Philly to Sandy hook. We'd have to watch for a sneaky warm layer around 900 hPa if the Euro ens track verified...but the trend towards a faster developing coastal and CCB are very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 2.86" precipitation for Boston in 1978. what about 4/1/97, i bet that might have been more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Some of these SREF members are going absolutely crazy with this system very early now...right as it exits the M/A coast. The dynamics are strong enough to keep precipitation snow basically from the City northward with the 850 hPa low closing off with multiple closed contours on some members off the coast of NJ. You can also see how the ones that develop the system slower have higher thicknesses farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Some of these SREF members are going absolutely crazy with this system very early now...right as it exits the M/A coast. The dynamics are strong enough to keep precipitation snow basically from the City northward with the 850 hPa low closing off with multiple closed contours on some members off the coast of NJ. You can also see how the ones that develop the system slower have higher thicknesses farther north. Very interesting, not that it means much but this is a big change from the previous run. I see one member even closes off the H5 low at the NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 what about 4/1/97, i bet that might have been more It was actually quite a bit less (2.06"). I suspect that the intense convection, including thundersnow, contributed to the higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It was actually quite a bit less (2.06"). I suspect that the intense convection, including thundersnow, contributed to the higher ratios. Most of the BOS snow in 4/1/97 fell in about 8 hours as well helping with a higher ratio despite the calendar, unlike Feb 1978 which lasted for over 30 hours. 4/1/97 was prolific in BOS for its duration of 2-3" per hour snows. Basically 6-8 hours straight. They only had about 3.5" at midnight from what I recall and ended up with 25.4". Most of the meaningful snow was over by 8-9am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The OP may be trying to close 500 mb off about 12 hours too soon compared to the ensemble mean. A later closing off would have the best CCB potential in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Most of the BOS snow in 4/1/97 fell in about 8 hours as well helping with a higher ratio despite the calendar, unlike Feb 1978 which lasted for over 30 hours. 4/1/97 was prolific in BOS for its duration of 2-3" per hour snows. Basically 6-8 hours straight. They only had about 3.5" at midnight from what I recall and ended up with 25.4". Most of the meaningful snow was over by 8-9am. Just the same, most of our 18" during the 12/30/2000 storm fell in about 6 hours from 5-11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 NAM not coming on board yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Through 57 hours the NAM is ever so slightly catching on, its killing the primary a bit quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I was walking around Madison, NJ during that storm around midnight and it was nothing you'd think that would lead to that much snow so there's no doubt about it, the big time snows fell in just those 6 hours or so. The snow just exploded off the NC coast then and headed up here. You wouldn't even know there was a snowstorm enroute until late the night before it hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 In 2011 - I forget which storm in particular, but we got damn near 2 feet between 11 PM and 6 AM. I think it was the 2nd to last storm, so near the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Most of the BOS snow in 4/1/97 fell in about 8 hours as well helping with a higher ratio despite the calendar, unlike Feb 1978 which lasted for over 30 hours. 4/1/97 was prolific in BOS for its duration of 2-3" per hour snows. Basically 6-8 hours straight. They only had about 3.5" at midnight from what I recall and ended up with 25.4". Most of the meaningful snow was over by 8-9am. Absolutely. It was probably a lot like the February 2006 snowstorm in NYC where the heaviest snow fell during the morning of February 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Today's CIPS analogs really favor New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The OP may be trying to close 500 mb off about 12 hours too soon compared to the ensemble mean. A later closing off would have the best CCB potential in New England. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96.gif Per Earthlight the 12z EC ensemble mean is even more amplified and closer to the coast than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z NAM - Still a whiff but slightly more of a low pressure off the coast, while the 15z SREF's massively hopped on board. now this is confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 In 2011 - I forget which storm in particular, but we got damn near 2 feet between 11 PM and 6 AM. I think it was the 2nd to last storm, so near the end of January. Jan 27, 2011-great storm for me too. About a foot fell IMBY in 3-4 hours. Pure heaven, ended up with about 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 verbatim NAM tries to pull something out..with .25 QPF around the area as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Per Earthlight the 12z EC ensemble mean is even more amplified and closer to the coast than the op. No, he said the 12Z ensemble mean was more amplified than the 0z ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How many times have we seen KU storms , hit on the weekend , followed by the trough leaving the EC . These systems love to mature at the back end of cold periods and really send the trough on there way with a bang . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The OP may be trying to close 500 mb off about 12 hours too soon compared to the ensemble mean. A later closing off would have the best CCB potential in New England. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96.gif The ensemble mean Is a really good hit for NYC points west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 18z NAM - Still a whiff but slightly more of a low pressure off the coast, while the 15z SREF's massively hopped on board. now this is confusing. I wouldn't worry too much about the NAM at this point. It's still beyond it's good range. The Euro and SREF's are really on board with the GFS also somewhat on board. Hopefully the 18z GFS either holds serve or improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 No, he said the 12Z ensemble mean was more amplified than the 0z ensembles. Okay fine, but they are still a good hit and smoothed out anyway. I'm sure some of the individual members are massive hits. Just like some are probably complete misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 verbatim NAM tries to pull something out..with .25 QPF around the area as snow. It's the NAM, but east winds keep most of the area well above freezing at the boundary layer and it's mostly/all rain. But I wouldn't trust it at this range as far as I could throw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. Obviously they don't want to go all-in after 2 model runs, and are trending their predictions closer and closer in order to be cautious. If tonight's model runs hold, they'll obviously make the QPF much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. At least on the Euro, there's a lot of precipitation after Saturday 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HPC for Friday, I'm not sure there is a single reliable model out there which keeps QPF under 1" for a majority of the area so I don't know what they are looking at. Conservative as of now, that's all/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Obviously they don't want to go all-in after 2 model runs, and are trending their predictions closer and closer in order to be cautious. If tonight's model runs hold, they'll obviously make the QPF much wetter If they had doubled that QPF amount over New England I would have still thought it was a conservative forecast. The day 3 probs are low as well. I understand that this is a fragile situation, but the guidance is overwhelmingley in good agreement of a big storm. You have the 12z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ensembles/ JMA and to an extend the GFS and its ensembles. Lets also add the new SREF's. That's a pretty strong consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 At least on the Euro, there's a lot of precipitation after Saturday 0z. 5 day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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