Friday February 8th Storm Potential

[ace0927]

Kind of hard to tell. This is the text output for NYC from the ECMWF:

2 M Temp 850 Temp SFC Pressure SFC RH 700 RH 6 HR QPF 500 HGT 1000 THK

3.4 -3.0 1018 90 63 0.01 553 538

4.4 -0.5 1010 97 99 0.27 550 542

1.4 -0.3 1004 96 100 0.51 542 539

-1.4 -7.8 1007 80 100 0.32 533 528

-4.1 -6.0 1014 71 90 0.18 536 525

we never go above 0C at 850. the last 3 sets of 6 hours should be all snow at a min...

[ace0927]

White Plains (KHPN):

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.6 -3.4 1020 90 57 0.02 552 537

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 3.1 -1.1 1011 95 99 0.19 550 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.1 -1.0 1004 95 100 0.52 543 539

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.2 -8.5 1007 80 100 0.39 533 528

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -6.0 1013 72 87 0.31 535 525

KBDR:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.3 -3.5 1021 85 51 0.02 553 536

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 2.6 -1.0 1012 94 100 0.18 551 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1003 96 99 0.61 543 541

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.7 -9.7 1005 80 100 0.59 534 530

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1012 75 94 0.45 534 524

SAT 18Z 09-FEB -2.8 -7.2 1017 57 9 0.01 537 524

Can you please post JFK and ISP? Much appreciated

[jm1220]

As per JB - Weatherbell Analytics 2-5-13 and I quote -

 

I think NYC is on the borderline with this, a 3-6 inch storm that could be as much as foot if we can keep it snow The place that could really get blasted is the island on the back lash. As for the rest of the area I have no beef with the ECMWF widespread 8-16 inches locally 2 feet, though as in many great storms, the rain line may get inland for a while even in southern New England. Put it this way, if you get into the rain, the combination of wind and snow that follows will make it a show.

Hopefully it works out, if not for us than for someone, since it will be exciting finally seeing a true bomb go off once again after 2010-11.

[jm1220]

we never go above 0C at 850. the last 3 sets of 6 hours should be all snow at a min...

Trying reverse psychology, being this optimistic all of a sudden?

[Allsnow]

HM in Phl thread

After a closer examination of the euro, I think I'm going to have to make a thread. To me, it is mostly snow in northern NJ, so that's close enough for a thread. Also, as the storm's arriving, the temps are cooler than the GFS too with the euro's better resolution.

If you are in the developing CCB (eastern and northern NJ, perhaps NE PA), I don't care what your lower level temps are, you are snow and snowing hard. The obvious caveat here is a warm nose above 850mb that I cannot see.

Unfortunately, this solution is based on s/w madness so this whole thing could come down from its current "epic" status for NE.

Finally, I don't think I'm a big fan of the next system and the euro does something odd with the Plains trough (misses a phase). Let's wait and see how the ensembles handle this because it looks funny. If the euro is a little too slow / overphased off the NE coast, that could be affecting the Plains trough.

I still like 2/20-22 for the next threat but I could be wrong about the in between period.

[Ericjcrash]

Trying reverse psychology, being this optimistic all of a sudden?

The weenie suicide warnings have been lifted. I still can't get over the Boston potential, so jealous.

[Allsnow]

Trying reverse psychology, being this optimistic all of a sudden?

When he does not get aggravated or let the weenies make him mad, he is a great poster.

[TWCCraig]

Anyone got Euro precip output and 850 temps for KISP? Thanks

[mikemurph44]

Before people go nuts calling for a major snowstorm for our area, wait for tonight's 0z runs, like hm said, this could very quickly come crashing down. The euro is showing a "thread the needle" perfect setup in a bad overall pattern, nao, pna, etc. lets see if it holds

[IsentropicLift]

The weenie suicide warnings have been lifted. I still can't get over the Boston potential, so jealous.

It's a classic miller B. We can do very well and New England can go great. The higher lattitude allows them to get into the stronger CCB. Sometimes a miller A can hit its max down by us, and so we do better than Boston. Or you can get a really strong high over New England where we get crushed and they don't see much. It's rare that both locations see epic snow. That's what makes systems like 96 so special.

[earthlight]

15z SREF mean looks pretty good..surface low from Hatteras to just southeast of the 40/70 and a good amount of precip. We're riding the boundary of mostly snow and mix...but have to see the individual members for more information on which way they're leaning.

[jm1220]

The weenie suicide warnings have been lifted. I still can't get over the Boston potential, so jealous.

A lot can and will still happen with this, and there's no way I believe the 3"+ liquid outputs there even with the dynamics of the system given how progressive the flow is generally. But they are certainly in a great position for this if the storm does come together right. I'll be frustrated if this gets going too late for us and a CCB of doom forms over New England, but again I'll at least be somewhat glad someone's getting a big storm. We've all been suffering way too long.

[bluewave]

Before people go nuts calling for a major snowstorm for our area, wait for tonight's 0z runs, like hm said, this could very quickly come crashing down. The euro is showing a "thread the needle" perfect setup in a bad overall pattern, nao, pna, etc. lets see if it holds

 

The 500 mb pattern is not one that you would expect to proceed a big snow for the coast here. So I would also wait until

we get inside 60 hrs to make a first call for possible regional snowfall amounts.

 

[Allsnow]

15z SREF mean looks pretty good..surface low from Hatteras to just southeast of the 40/70 and a good amount of precip. We're riding the boundary of mostly snow and mix...but have to see the individual members for more information on which way they're leaning.

Should we trust the srefs? They have been awful this year

[earthlight]

Should we trust the srefs? They have been awful this year

 

I wouldn't put much stock into them at this range anyway, regardless of their previous performance. At this range I mainly use them to see which way the spread is leaning and what the individual members are hinting at.

[jm1220]

The 500 mb pattern is not one that you would expect to proceed a big snow for the coast here. So I would also wait until

we get inside 60 hrs to make a first call for possible regional snowfall amounts.

 

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA072.gif

Agree, still a lot of room for this to go wrong. I would wait until late tomorrow before really sounding alarms.

[friedmators]

Ugh, we have half our office leaving for San Diego at 3:45PM on Friday including me.  If this thing looks to be 8"+ Thursday night, I am pushing my flight till Sunday.

[IsentropicLift]

Ugh, we have half our office leaving for San Diego at 3:45PM on Friday including me.  If this thing looks to be 8"+ Thursday night, I am pushing my flight till Sunday.

Even if it doesn't snow it's still going to be nasty flying weather with numerous delays and cancelations possible.

[Neblizzard]

The 500 mb pattern is not one that you would expect to proceed a big snow for the coast here. So I would also wait until

we get inside 60 hrs to make a first call for possible regional snowfall amounts.

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA072.gif

Rarely do you see a powerful nor'easter hammer the northeast with epic snows, without some type of blocking pattern. I guess this may be the perfect example of a "thread the needle" storm.

[friedmators]

Even if it doesn't snow it's still going to be nasty flying weather with numerous delays and cancelations possible.

 

I loathe flying even on a clear and sunny day.  I will not be be happy taking off in a wind-blown downpour. 

[mikemurph44]

The 500 mb pattern is not one that you would expect to proceed a big snow for the coast here. So I would also wait until

we get inside 60 hrs to make a first call for possible regional snowfall amounts.

12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA072.gif

I am normally accused of being way too optimistic but in this case, I just have a bad feeling. I don't like this synoptic pattern we are in, it is not really conducive for a big storm, minus the perfect mesoscale setup the euro is showing and how many times do we actually see a perfect setup verify? Gives me pause

[earthlight]

I am normally accused of being way too optimistic but in this case, I just have a bad feeling. I don't like this synoptic pattern we are in, it is not really conducive for a big storm, minus the perfect mesoscale setup the euro is showing and how many times do we actually see a perfect setup verify? Gives me pause

 

As it should.

[IsentropicLift]

Rarely do you see a powerful nor'easter hammer the northeast with epic snows, without some type of blocking pattern. I guess this may be the perfect example of a "thread the needle" storm.

It also helps that it's the beginning of February. The ocean temps are about as cold as they are going to get. We've been mostly cold now for several weeks aside from the two days in the 50's and 60's. Even though we don't have blocking the high over Canada is in a very good position. All the blocking would really do is help that high stay in place longer which doesn't look to be a problem. The stronger the storm and the closer the CCB gets to this area the more snow we will see. You would like to see the CCB develop down in the Mid-Atlantic so that it's already cranked up when it gets here. Currently it starts to develop over central NJ.

[CooL]

Rarely do you see a powerful nor'easter hammer the northeast with epic snows, without some type of blocking pattern. I guess this may be the perfect example of a "thread the needle" storm.

 

There is some weak blocking on the 500mb maps, holding the confluence in place. It's good timing. This is no longer threading the needle IMO, threading the needle would be getting what boston got on the 12z euro in NYC. 

[IsentropicLift]

I loathe flying even on a clear and sunny day.  I will not be be happy taking off in a wind-blown downpour. 

I wouldn't get too excited. If the forecast holds I doubt you will be flying that day.

[friedmators]

I wouldn't get too excited. If the forecast holds I doubt you will be flying that day.

I just cancelled my first two nights in San Diego. Probably just jinxed us all.  D'oh!

[Neblizzard]

There is some weak blocking on the 500mb maps, holding the confluence in place. It's good timing. This is no longer threading the needle IMO, threading the needle would be getting what boston got on the 12z euro in NYC.

I do see what your saying. I guess you can argue that there is a 50/50 low in place, but north of its ideal position. That just may be enough to keep the confluence over the northeast. It's doable we just need more things to go our way.

[earthlight]

12z Euro ensembles are much more amplified than the 00z run...surface low is much stronger.

 

That being said..plenty of precip, marginally cold enough for snow. At 84 hours 32 F contour at the surface is running just north and west of I-95. 850 0c contour from ACY to south of Montauk.

[SVT450R]

[Zelocita Weather]

12z Euro ensembles are much more amplified than the 00z run...surface low is much stronger.

 

That being said..plenty of precip, marginally cold enough for snow. At 84 hours 32 F contour at the surface is running just north and west of I-95. 850 0c contour from ACY to south of Montauk.