Friday February 8th Storm Potential

[JonClaw]

I take it the 850s go above 0c in NYC?

[dbc]

The bulk of the precip on the Euro is from 7 am Friday to 7 am Saturday.

 

Man if we could just flip that to a 12 hours earlier start, we'd all be a lot better off in many aspects.

[Snow_Miser]

Can you check MMU qpf?

MMU sees 1.02" of precip.

[donsutherland1]

I can almost guarantee boston didn't see 3.5in qpf in 78. I know they did have insane snow amounts in parts of SNE but verbaitm for boston proper. That would be an absolutely unprecedented wind driven 3ft, yes 3 ft of snow. Drifts probably to 10ft 

2.86" precipitation for Boston in 1978.

[WE GOT HIM]

Also dont forget sea temps have significantly cooled in the last few weeks with the long cold spell.

[jm1220]

Euro QPF map:

Looks almost like a 12/26/10 map with more precip thrown west.

[JonClaw]

Man if we could just flip that to a 12 hours earlier start, we'd all be a lot better off in many aspects.

 

It is still 2.5 days out.

[Kaner587]

2.86" precipitation for Boston in 1978.

thank you don...i know how historic that storm is btw so that isn't lost on me. Just talking about pure amounts. I remember hearing places just to the SW of boston got 3ft plus though in that one though with drifts like 15ft high or something.

[jm1220]

Also dont forget sea temps have significantly cooled in the last week weeks with the long cold spell.

The faster we can get the primary to die off and eliminate warm advection up here, the better we do. As is, a lot of people especially city and east would have to deal with non-snow precip until the coastal fully forms. West of the city is colder but there's less precip. Verbatim, Long Island and eastern sections could get the most snow even if they rain for the first part.

[mikemurph44]

Per DT, nyc area is rain that goes over to snow on this run of the ecmwf, 4-8 inches

[snywx]

Looks almost like a 12/26/10 map with more precip thrown west.

 

That map gives areas up here a 12+ event..

 

12/26/10 gave areas up here anywhere from 12-28"

[Zelocita Weather]

So the EURO gives most of the area 1.0 - 1.5" QPF with a significant amount/majority NW of the city as frozen? Sounds like a significant storm to me!

[Snow_Miser]

How much of that liquid is snow for the area?

Kind of hard to tell. This is the text output for NYC from the ECMWF:

2 M Temp 850 Temp SFC Pressure SFC RH 700 RH 6 HR QPF 500 HGT 1000 THK

3.4 -3.0 1018 90 63 0.01 553 538

4.4 -0.5 1010 97 99 0.27 550 542

1.4 -0.3 1004 96 100 0.51 542 539

-1.4 -7.8 1007 80 100 0.32 533 528

-4.1 -6.0 1014 71 90 0.18 536 525

[Sn0waddict]

How much of that liquid is snow for the area?

DT said Euro verbatim for NYC is rain to snow, 4-8 inches.

[SR Airglow]

Can someone post the text for HPN and BDR?

 

Thanks

 

-skisheep

[BxEngine]

Can someone who has access give me qpf for KSLK? Asked in the NE forum but it got buried.

[Snow_Miser]

Can someone post the text for HPN and BDR?

 

Thanks

 

-skisheep

White Plains (KHPN):

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.6 -3.4 1020 90 57 0.02 552 537

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 3.1 -1.1 1011 95 99 0.19 550 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.1 -1.0 1004 95 100 0.52 543 539

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.2 -8.5 1007 80 100 0.39 533 528

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -6.0 1013 72 87 0.31 535 525

KBDR:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.3 -3.5 1021 85 51 0.02 553 536

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 2.6 -1.0 1012 94 100 0.18 551 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1003 96 99 0.61 543 541

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.7 -9.7 1005 80 100 0.59 534 530

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1012 75 94 0.45 534 524

SAT 18Z 09-FEB -2.8 -7.2 1017 57 9 0.01 537 524

[donsutherland1]

thank you don...i know how historic that storm is btw so that isn't lost on me. Just talking about pure amounts. I remember hearing places just to the SW of boston got 3ft plus though in that one though with drifts like 15ft high or something.

You are correct. NWS Taunton has a great .pdf on that blizzard (see p.34 for accumulations):

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/Bliz78NWS.pdf

[lab94]

White Plains (KHPN):

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.6 -3.4 1020 90 57 0.02 552 537

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 3.1 -1.1 1011 95 99 0.19 550 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.1 -1.0 1004 95 100 0.52 543 539

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.2 -8.5 1007 80 100 0.39 533 528

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -6.0 1013 72 87 0.31 535 525

KBDR:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.3 -3.5 1021 85 51 0.02 553 536

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 2.6 -1.0 1012 94 100 0.18 551 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1003 96 99 0.61 543 541

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.7 -9.7 1005 80 100 0.59 534 530

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1012 75 94 0.45 534 524

SAT 18Z 09-FEB -2.8 -7.2 1017 57 9 0.01 537 524

KMMU or KFWN please.

[Snow_Miser]

Can someone who has access give me qpf for KSLK? Asked in the NE forum but it got buried.

FRI 00Z 08-FEB -13.7 -13.0 1032 48 98 0.01 546 522

FRI 06Z 08-FEB -12.6 -10.8 1028 66 88 0.05 545 523

FRI 12Z 08-FEB -10.9 -8.7 1023 80 97 0.08 543 525

FRI 18Z 08-FEB -9.4 -7.9 1020 85 100 0.20 541 526

SAT 00Z 09-FEB -11.0 -11.0 1020 87 100 0.30 538 523

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -13.8 -11.0 1021 86 94 0.17 536 520

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -16.8 -13.3 1025 83 17 0.02 536 517

The ECMWF's QPF for KSLK is 0.83". All snow.

[Snow_Miser]

KMMU or KFWN please.

1.02" of precip for KMMU.

[Saturn510]

verbatim the majority of us would love to see over 2 inches of snow.  so i will take the 4 inches if that would be the worst case and take it to the bank. The last two clippers i was hoping to see at least 1 inch of snow and fell short of that

[lab94]

1.02" of precip for KMMU.

 Thank you. Any idea if thats all snow or  50/50 like NYC

[SR Airglow]

White Plains (KHPN):

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.6 -3.4 1020 90 57 0.02 552 537

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 3.1 -1.1 1011 95 99 0.19 550 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.1 -1.0 1004 95 100 0.52 543 539

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.2 -8.5 1007 80 100 0.39 533 528

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.0 -6.0 1013 72 87 0.31 535 525

KBDR:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB 1.3 -3.5 1021 85 51 0.02 553 536

FRI 18Z 08-FEB 2.6 -1.0 1012 94 100 0.18 551 541

SAT 00Z 09-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1003 96 99 0.61 543 541

SAT 06Z 09-FEB -2.7 -9.7 1005 80 100 0.59 534 530

SAT 12Z 09-FEB -4.5 -6.4 1012 75 94 0.45 534 524

SAT 18Z 09-FEB -2.8 -7.2 1017 57 9 0.01 537 524

wow, averaging the HPN and BDR for Stamford gives me .87 of snow so 8-10" wow that's the first warning snow since 2011...

 

-skisheep

[BxEngine]

The ECMWF's QPF for KSLK is 0.83". All snow.

Thanks.

Cmon northern stream! :ducks: lol

[rossi]

1.02" of precip for KMMU.

What about BLM?

[Snow_Miser]

 Thank you. Any idea if thats all snow or  50/50 like NYC

You're welcome.

It's probably more than 50/50 into the NW Burbs into MMU but it probably isn't all snow either. Pretty hard to tell because the text is in 6 hourly increments.

[ace0927]

lets not forget we have a 1038 high to the North. if that low gets down to 976 as depicted. Wow. Thats 62mb pressure gradient over probably 1000miles?

thats about equal to Feb 1978

 

I believe it was 1050 and 986

 

or something to that effect

[ace0927]

Check out the bost QPF . EURO 3.5 - not 2.5 , warmest there 850`s get is MINUS 4 , would be insane if that verified would rival 78 , without the wind .

i think they would have pretty insane winds considering the difference in pressure in such a close proximity...i think I saw the GFS showed hurricane force winds on the cape.

[rossi]

12z JMA. Holy Cannoli.

http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif

As per JB - Weatherbell Analytics 2-5-13 and I quote -

 

I think NYC is on the borderline with this, a 3-6 inch storm that could be as much as foot if we can keep it snow The place that could really get blasted is the island on the back lash. As for the rest of the area I have no beef with the ECMWF widespread 8-16 inches locally 2 feet, though as in many great storms, the rain line may get inland for a while even in southern New England. Put it this way, if you get into the rain, the combination of wind and snow that follows will make it a show.