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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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the way this type of situation as depicted on the EURO sets up is using natural snow/rain boundary points such as anyone from a line from Perth Amboy NJ southwest to Trenton - another natural boundary away from the ocean is around Freehold and the next is usually around Toms River NJ and of course route 78 and 80 up north which one will be the main boundary between various precip types and duration  is the question to be answered.........

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Northwest areas still get into the very heavy snow as the CCB sets up from about Trenton north and east. Meanwhile as the city changes over us inland folks have been snow all along. Without having more data I don't want to speculate on totals but I would imagine the I-287 corridor gets slammed on this run.

per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either
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Exactly, we learned on 12/25/02 and 4/6/82 it does not matter if the low is only 50 miles to your southeast, if its closed off at all levels in an even remotely cold air mass you're going to snow.

Right , you cut off mid level warmth ( 925 ) and as you deepen just to you`re east , you rocket the 850`s to the surface . Not perfect , but living here there`s always something to contend with , but im happy with the trend . warning , ZERO rmargin for error , from here on in .

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Keep in mind also, that you can still rack up very impressive totals in a highly dynamic system regardless of whether you change over or not. Some of the highest totals on 1/27/11 were in areas that mixed for quite a while. I'm wondering if the progressive nature of the pattern won't keep this moving quicker than presently advertised though, cutting down on the insane totals.

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per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either

that was basically my point before...NW burbs stay snow but precip isn't incredibly heavy. Still a solid 6-10in storm probably. Maybe more like 6-8in but its not that important to iron out details today. With the model mayhem over the past couple weeks lets see where we stand in 36 hours.

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We are snow regardless.. Its a matter of precip amounts whether we get slammed or just a lgt event.

Have you seen any text output for Sussex County NJ and extreme Southern NYC counties per the Euro?  I think you're right.  If this thing really wraps up, there could be a sharp cutoff that hurts us.

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still 6-10 probably. BUt I was referring to the fact that total precip really ramps up as you go north and east. 

It's hard to get the really big accumulations out this way when the city and points east do well. Boxing day is an example. While I'll take my 14" and be happy, points just five miles to my east got into the better banding and recorded amounts exceeding 20". This seems like a unique situation where the CCB could come closer with a closer track and we might all benefit.

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per the euro, assuming it is correct, the heavier precip and dynamics would be east of nyc, not northwest of nyc. And it would not be a huge hit of snow like its progging Boston to get, not even close. Ratios would not be that great either

If the city gets hit hard, so will I. This doesn't appear to be a system with a sharp NW cut off. The WWA snow out ahead of the coastal will also add to totals up this way while the coast has BL issues early on.

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that was basically my point before...NW burbs stay snow but precip isn't incredibly heavy. Still a solid 6-10in storm probably. Maybe more like 6-8in but its not that important to iron out details today. With the model mayhem over the past couple weeks lets see where we stand in 36 hours.

Hey look, with the past two winters anybody that would complain about a solid warning criteria snowfall should be shot. The potenital definitly exists though for a lot more. Looks like the perfect setup for Boston.

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Check out the bost QPF . EURO 3.5 - not 2.5 , warmest there 850`s get is MINUS 4 , would be insane if that verified would rival 78 , without the wind .

I can almost guarantee boston didn't see 3.5in qpf in 78. I know they did have insane snow amounts in parts of SNE but verbaitm for boston proper. That would be an absolutely unprecedented wind driven 3ft, yes 3 ft of snow. Drifts probably to 10ft 

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Have you seen any text output for Sussex County NJ and extreme Southern NYC counties per the Euro?  I think you're right.  If this thing really wraps up, there could be a sharp cutoff that hurts us.

 

Sharp cutoffs are always a possibility for us here in the NW burbs. The 2 things we have going for us is that there is almost always a secondary jackpot out here due to orographic enhancement, banding etc and things are still trending in our favor. Would not be surprised to see it continuing to develop an earlier phase 

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It gets to 973 at the BM on this run . I cant imagine it gets better from here on in .

Would be asking alot to improve on this run , considering some of the indicies . There`s 6 inches in here for a lot of people form NYC nw - and even onto LI . i would be very happy , if we can hold this look .

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I can almost guarantee boston didn't see 3.5in qpf in 78. I know they did have insane snow amounts in parts of SNE but verbaitm for boston proper. That would be an absolutely unprecedented wind driven 3ft, yes 3 ft of snow. Drifts probably to 10ft 

In a fast pattern like this it's very difficult for me to see anyone get that kind of actual output, but the totals would be very, very impressive once you get under where the CCB ultimately develops. This is definitely New England's storm if the phase happens-the question is how far southwest from there can we get the real impacts.

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