IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is a wind driven blizzard for Boston and sitting on the edge of a major snowstorm for many of the suburbs of NYC. I know it's early but it sounds like locations such as KMMU and KSMQ do very well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is a wind driven blizzard for Boston and sitting on the edge of a major snowstorm for many of the suburbs of NYC. I mean as is the Northern and eastern burbs do really well. The problem with the western burbs is the lack of heavier precip. I think with this run you could even say NYC metro on the verge because it wouldn't have taken much for this to shift that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is a wind driven blizzard for Boston and sitting on the edge of a major snowstorm for many of the suburbs of NYC. I assume the east suburbs are rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looks like NYC is rain to accumulating snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So the big question is will this come further west over the next few days to hug the coast with the more amplified solution and neutral to positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I mean as is the Northern and eastern burbs do really well. The problem with the western burbs is the lack of heavier precip. I think with this run you could even say NYC metro on the verge because it wouldn't have taken much for this to shift that way. Similar to November storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BOSTON 2.5 QPF . thats retarded damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BOSTON 2.5 QPF . thats retarded Even with 10:1 ratios they are looking at over 2 feet. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Pretty impressive CCB being depicted on the ECMWF. In 6 hours Somerset County goes from 41 to 33-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 in a small area just SW of boston, there is almost 1.5-1.75in precip in 6hrs. Thats wild for a snowstorm. Would average 3in/hr with probably someone in that band seeing thundersnow and even higher rates. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I know it's early but it sounds like locations such as KMMU and KSMQ do very well? im not sure how, given this depiction we (all of us) dont rock...specifically the shape and position of the high. If the mid levels are cold and its only 950mb and lower couldnt we cool sufficiently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I assume the east suburbs are rain? only until 90. The rest is snow for everyone. I would say basically all of nassau cty and most of suffolk get about 6in of backend snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I assume the east suburbs are rain? Hr 90 you go to snow, with more preciep after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Similar to November storm? Yes and we received a foot in Monmouth County - but yes very similiar but much colder in February and especially ocean at 38 degrees. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So the big question is will this come further west over the next few days to hug the coast with the more amplified solution and neutral to positive NAO. I don't think so, the pattern is too progressive out west I think. This is basically a perfectly timed setup occurring in an otherwise bad pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I mean as is the Northern and eastern burbs do really well. The problem with the western burbs is the lack of heavier precip. I think with this run you could even say NYC metro on the verge because it wouldn't have taken much for this to shift that way. Northwest areas still get into the very heavy snow as the CCB sets up from about Trenton north and east. Meanwhile as the city changes over us inland folks have been snow all along. Without having more data I don't want to speculate on totals but I would imagine the I-287 corridor gets slammed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Similar to November storm? ya I guess you could say that. I've been so snow starved this season (I was away for the november storm) that I would gladly take this as is. Dont care if it rains for half of it 6 in of paste would be heaven at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So the big question is will this come further west over the next few days to hug the coast with the more amplified solution and neutral to positive NAO. If it trends faster with the phase, I'm beginning to think our area will benefit more than struggle even with the track close to the coast. The faster we get the mid level lows off the coast to become dominant, the better we will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is a 6+ inch snowstorm for SMQ on the ECMWF Text forecast. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im not sure how, given this depiction we (all of us) dont rock... I would agree, if that CCB cranks as advertised I doubt many people see much rain except maybe the coast at the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ace...eastern suburbs actually do better than NYC metro on the backend because of the proximity to the CCB. Close to 0.8 maybe even more at JFK frozen on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 only until 90. The rest is snow for everyone. I would say basically all of nassau cty and most of suffolk get about 6in of backend snow. never a fan of backend snows unless the mid levels are really closed off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If it trends faster with the phase, I'm beginning to think our area will benefit more than struggle even with the track close to the coast. The faster we get the mid level lows off the coast to become dominant, the better we will do. Exactly, we learned on 12/25/02 and 4/6/82 it does not matter if the low is only 50 miles to your southeast, if its closed off at all levels in an even remotely cold air mass you're going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Hr 90 you go to snow, with more preciep after that Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Northwest areas still get into the very heavy snow as the CCB sets up from about Trenton north and east. Meanwhile as the city changes over us inland folks have been snow all along. Without having more data I don't want to speculate on totals but I would imagine the I-287 corridor gets slammed on this run. still 6-10 probably. BUt I was referring to the fact that total precip really ramps up as you go north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 never a fan of backend snows unless the mid levels are really closed off I'd like to see 500mb more closed but it seems 700/850 are...4/6/82 was not closed at 500 til late but was at 850 and 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 never a fan of backend snows unless the mid levels are really closed off 500mb closes on top of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If it trends faster with the phase, I'm beginning to think our area will benefit more than struggle even with the track close to the coast. The faster we get the mid level lows off the coast to become dominant, the better we will do. Agreed. Where I'm sitting in NW NJ, the closer it gets, the colder the storm is getting thanks to CCB. That faster phase let's that happen. Game. On. FINALLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ace...eastern suburbs actually do better than NYC metro on the backend because of the proximity to the CCB. Close to 0.8 maybe even more at JFK frozen on the backend beggers cant be choosers...where shall i sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 im not sure how, given this depiction we (all of us) dont rock... Verbatim that's heavy snow for all of us once the dynamics and CCB really get cranking. The question is how soon it does so and where it does so. Do we have to put up with an initial slug of crap WAA type precip that's slop or rain for many of us, or do we have enough of a clean phase soon enough to crash heights and temps down to the coast? And does that happen in time for us or only in time for New England? Still tons to iron out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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