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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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I wouldn't be forecasting a major snow storm at this point but anyone that thinks that any one solution is off the table right now has obviously not been tracking weather that long.

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An earlier phase will get the CCB cranking sooner. With a mature CCB over the area in February it's going to snow, I don't care what the models are currently showing. As some mets have said, we can afford a track closer to the coast and most of us can still be snow. A few :weenie: 's living on the water may need to be sacraficed for the good of the people.

 

Well and earlier phase would  increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner.

But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet.

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Well and earlier phase would  increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner.

But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet.

 

 

Well and earlier phase would  increase the chances that the interior would get into the CCB and go over to snow sooner.

But I would like to see some model continuity before jumping on any one model solution just yet.

Agreed, probably the biggest Euro run so far this winter coming up shortly.

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Agreed, probably the biggest Euro run so far this winter coming up shortly.

 

The models seem to really struggle with this fast split flow patterns. No matter what happens, the GFS inability

to see the southern stream until last night is a really big problem with that model that we have seen before.

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How do you know it's not our storm? It is still 3 days away. I agree that SNE northward has a better chance than our area.

 

The negative energy is amazing in here this year. If it were 2 or 3 winters ago everyone would be finding ways for this to happen. This winter its the opposite, total concentration on why a given event will not happen. Its a mob mentality, anyone who is the least bit optimistic is torn up!!

Even if I see only an inch I would rather have that in association with a coastal (I surf in the winter and coastals are great for waves) then the crap we have been having. Plus it says the pattern can produce which could mean something down the line, there is still plenty of winter left.

I am not writing this off for a second.

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The models seem to really struggle with this fast split flow patterns. No matter what happens, the GFS inability

to see the southern stream until last night is a really big problem with that model that we have seen before.

None of the globals have performed very well so far this winter. The ECMWF has busted pretty badly this winter especially, but since the GFS appears to be trending towards it I think some skeptical people will come around if the Euro holds serve in the next hour.

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The negative energy is amazing in here this year. If it were 2 or 3 winters ago everyone would be finding ways for this to happen. This winter its the opposite, total concentration on why a given event will not happen. Its a mob mentality, anyone who is the least bit optimistic is torn up!!

Even if I see only an inch I would rather have that in association with a coastal (I surf in the winter and coastals are great for waves) then the crap we have been having. Plus it say the pattern can produce which could mean something down the line, there is still plenty of winter left.

I am not writing this off for a second.

This is a real problem in our sub-forum and a major reason why a lot of the better mets post in either Philly or New England instead. Someone posted yesterday, "If it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing?". Comments like that make me throw up in my mouth. The amount of arrogance is only surpassed by their ignorance. 

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Shouldn't have to say this by now but that's a smoothed out mean. The question is -- do the members that show an abundance of precip for NYC also show cool enough temperatures for it to be a mostly frozen event? 

 

The really amped solutions further west are wetter while the more suppressed solutions have hardly any precip here.

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I do think this is a thread the needle scenario as far as us getting a good snowstorm is concerned, but I don't think it's impossible to thread that needle.

In my opinion, we need:

1) A quicker phase between the northern and southern stream. This would allow the southern stream secondary to take over quicker, helping the primary to erode quicker, which may actually lead the 1038 high to the north to make a difference, as opposed to our winds being influenced by that primary. In other words, a quicker phase can not only lead to a CCB, but much better access to the colder source region to the north.

2) More likely than not, it has to be due more so because of a northern stream shortwave that digs more rather than the southern stream wave simply trending more north. That is going to be tough, but the 12z GFS definitely was digging more than the 0z GFS was.

3) The northern stream to dig more but also not become negatively tilted.

4) Although we want the northern stream more amplified for a better chance at a phase, we do not want it becoming too strong, so that we are at "the point of no return" with its surge of warmth. Fortunately, it is February.

One thing is that with higher pressures to our north, the 850mb low in the Lakes is not necessarily the kiss of death, because we can actually get somewhat of a kink to the south with the 850mb isotherms at our longitude. The primary in the Lakes screws over C PA and the Binghamton area more than it does to us, assuming we can get a transfer to occur early enough. The 850s do briefly warm above 0C for our area, but that's because we are essentially at the latitude of the transfer as modeled.

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This is a real problem in our sub-forum and a major reason why a lot of the better mets post in either Philly or New England instead. Someone posted yesterday, "If it's snowing in an irrelevant place is it really snowing?". Comments like that make me throw up in my mouth. The amount of arrogance is only surpassed by their ignorance. 

I know this belongs in the banter thread - just like your post above - BUT IMO everyone is entitled to their own opinion and feelings about individual storms and this entire season - so lets knock it off with the personal attacks - this is weather and even the most seasoned METS have busted badly at some point this season - just take a look at some of the winter seasonal forecasts from back in October and November - bust after bust - anyways to not make this a complete banter post it is encouraging to see some individual GEFS members show a snowy solution for friday in NYC .........

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