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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south.

This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy

 

How do you know it's not our storm? It is still 3 days away. I agree that SNE northward has a better chance than our area.

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And the northern stream needs to be stronger and more energetic in order for the phase to happen in the first place. And that works hand in hand with having a strong mid level center over the Great Lakes.

 

So we're really working against a lose-lose situation right now.

 

 

True. That would certainly be a bigger problem initially, but once the phase were to theoretically occur, the problem would also get alleviated quicker, as well. The 850mb low is stronger in this run than it was on the 0z GFS, but our 850s are the same. It has a bigger impact in areas just to the east of the 850 low, instead of areas well east of the 850mb low. You don't want that strong 850mb low to get too close to us, of course. But with higher pressures to our north and potentially a quicker dying primary, we can actually see a kink to the south in the 850mb isotherms towards our longitude, perhaps indicating that the initial primary low -- while certainly detrimental -- isn't the automatic kiss of death.

 

We certainly need to thread a needle here. But I don't think this is impossible. 

 

12z:

 

gfs_namer_066_850_temp_ht.gif

 

 

 

 

0z:

 

gfs_namer_078_850_temp_ht.gif

 

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If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south.

This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy

There's a possibility it could be, but the setup argues much more for a New England storm. Our window of opportunity is way smaller than theirs because the storm looks like it will take a long time to come together.

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If I were in Boston I would feel both excited and nervous at the same time because although it shows a bomb now, given this winter it could trend weaker and further south.

This clearly isn't our storm, give it to SNE so someone can be happy

Anyone north and west of I-95 has a good chance at seeing mostly snow. Even with most of the CCB missing, we're still looking at mostly frozen for that area with a warning criteria snowfall possible. It's probably a SECS for us and a MECS for New England. The negativity needs to stop, just because this winter hasn't gone well so far doesn't mean things can't change on a dime.

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Anyone north and west of I-95 has a good chance at seeing mostly snow. Even with most of the CCB missing, we're still looking at mostly frozen for that area with a warning criteria snowfall possible. It's probably a SECS for us and a MECS for New England. The negativity needs to stop, just because this winter hasn't gone well so far doesn't mean things can't change on a dime.

 

This run of the GFS is rain all the way back into PA, but west of 95 ends as a period of snow.

Too much front end WAA below 850 mb.

 

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An earlier phase/transfer would be much better for our area.

 

 

I like to think about it this way: If the east solution isn't cold enough anyway, why not root for an earlier phase/transfer? That's the only way to erode that primary and get the secondary going early enough for a CCB to hit our area, and then maybe we can cool off that way. 

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Yeah it's tough because i haven't seen any setup like this so i don't really know what would be better/worse. GEFS look good

 

 

If you get the earlier phase because of the northern stream digging further south rather than the southern stream coming more north, then that helps us a lot. Look at how much more the northern stream was digging on this run vs the 0z GFS. 

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I think the only way you get the earlier phase is if the SE Ridge verifies stronger which wouldn't help us.

An earlier phase will get the CCB cranking sooner. With a mature CCB over the area in February it's going to snow, I don't care what the models are currently showing. As some mets have said, we can afford a track closer to the coast and most of us can still be snow. A few :weenie: 's living on the water may need to be sacraficed for the good of the people.

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The northern stream takes on starts taking negative tilt at 78hrs, over the Lakes. That causes the strong warm air surge aloft, we see at the height of the storm. If that northern stream weren't to go as quickly negative, then the warm air surge will be less.

 

attachicon.gif12zGFSf78.gif

 

 

Good observation. Hopefully we can get the northern stream to phase with the southern stream without having to make the northern stream become negative first.

 

I do think it's possible for us to get a nice CCB of snow out of this, but there is still so much that can go wrong. At least we have something to track. 

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There is a strong signal for backend snows from 83-90 hours or so for the coastal areas....the GFS soundings at JFK/LGA at 84 hours show it being rain still but the entire column has N-NNE winds by that time and its likely changing over to snow....we could still use a further south phase by a bit.

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