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Friday February 8th Storm Potential


Edge Weather

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That phase really is sloppy and takes a lot of time considering how close the shortwaves are to each other. If we had a stronger ridge out west, that northern stream wave would be forced to dive further south quicker.

 

However, if we can just clean up that phase a bit, we might have an interesting Friday. 

Major step regardless by GFS blowing this up to the BM . Without the block to force the cold air to the coast , we really rely on rates and dynamics for CCB , not impossible to pull off . If the Euro is quicker with the phase on any of the next few runs im sure it will get everyone attention for real .It`s a timing issue and I can`t see that being sorted 4 days out

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Both northern and southern streams were noticeably stronger this run of the GFS. It still appears that northern stream is more dominant.

 

 

Right. And the northern stream was MUCH more amplified this run compared to 0z and dug much much further south. That shift is pretty alarming. If we can somehow get a phase south of our latitude, we actually stand a chance.

 

12z at 66:

 

gfs_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

 

0z at 78:

 

gfs_namer_078_500_vort_ht.gif

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Further west you would get into the CCB and that would be snow.

NW areas are 0.50"+ and about 80% of that is all snow and with okay ratios. Even at 8 or 10:1 it's a solid warning criteria snowfall. Most of this area sees 0.75"+. Looks like a local JP in NE NJ where the hightest QPF is maximized a long with areas that stay frozen the longest.

 

gfs_namer_099_precip_p36.gif

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I know this will sound very weenie-ish, but I have a hard time believing a storm w/ that location, deepening that rapidly at this time of year will not be colder.

If you get that CCB cranking earlier there is no way that most people don't see snow. The only exception would be the immediate coast and perhaps far Eastern Long Island.

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If it phases earlier, I would think the 850s would crash SE faster as the low develops and grows a comma head faster. It's not a grerat setup but not the worst either with the strong high. But the primary hanging on is what likely would screw it for us southwest of CT. Hopefully this trends weaker in the future. If by tomorrow we keep seeing this, I'll get somewhat optimistic.

 

 

I think the pattern is still progressive enough with the rolling ridge out west that an earlier phase would not yield a track that is too far west for our area. Just my opinion. 

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Correct me if in wrong, but has the trend been to weaken these northern stream disturbances this year? It's seems they always look great 3 days out, then crap out.

 

 

That is true, but we're going to be out of our PV shredding shortwave regime with this setup. We have a pesudo split flow, which chances the whole ball game.

 

However, there are still lots of potential flaws with this setup. I just don't think it's prudent to make comparisons to previous "events", since the pattern is very different for this potential event. 

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That is true, but we're going to be out of our PV shredding shortwave regime with this setup. We have a pesudo split flow, which chances the whole ball game.

However, there are still lots of potential flaws with this setup. I just don't think it's prudent to make comparisons to previous "events", since the pattern is very different for this potential event.

Thanks Doug. I agree that we have had worse set-ups. It's def something to watch unfold, at the very least it would be great to see someone get crushed

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What an awesome solution for Southern New England. Perfect track and a monster CCB. But a very odd looking phase aloft.

this winter has played out very 1994-1995ish..funny that the date of this event is very close to the one snow event (a KU) of that winter (feb 4, 1995)...and if I remember correctly, there wasnt a -nao at all, no hP to the north, we were forecast to changeover quickly and it never did (same kinda forecast as jan 1987)...the synoptics of this has to better than those.

 

In January 1987 (the Jan 21 storm) the high's the day prior were in the mid 40's.

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You'd think once the primary dies, those highs to the north might have a stronger influence (than what is modeled), and combine that with (hopefully) some precipitation, you could get a dynamically cooling CCB before the storm moves out. 

you would also think that with a 1038hP directly to its north the primary  1) wouldn't make it as far north as the GFS placed it and 2) would die off sooner. No?

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Think back to DEC 30 , you had a LP go from Cape Hat to the benchmark . winds were NE the entire day , temps on Long Island were 33 - 34 all day and 850`a WERE MINUS 2 the whole time .....and it just RAINED .

If you dont close off fast enough you easliy warm 925 mb layer with SE winds at the mid levels .Not to mention coastal plus 850`s progged here

So the track isnt the issue . the model is seeing the phase late . And you cant overcome that unless you phase earlier .

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So basically you are saying NYC has no shot?

 

 

If the phase occurs simply because the southern stream wave trends further north and the northern stream wave stays in the same location, then he's probably right. But if we can keep having the northern stream wave trend more amplified and have it dip more, we can get an earlier phase without the storm cutting too far west. I think Chris makes a good point, but the pattern is just pretty progressive, and I definitely think there is still some "wiggle room" with having an earlier phase and not having the track become detrimental. 

 

Of course, even the current track in itself is still pretty good but our temps aren't great. So yes, there have been worse setups, but of course there have been better ones too. This one just actually has a nice ceiling, for once. 

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That phase really is sloppy and takes a lot of time considering how close the shortwaves are to each other. If we had a stronger ridge out west, that northern stream wave would be forced to dive further south quicker.

 

However, if we can just clean up that phase a bit, we might have an interesting Friday. 

question to the mets: Why do we see the h8 0C line of the center of low pressure at times and at other times its further way to the west?

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i was just about to say that. A closed 850 low tracking over buffalo = rain for the metro area, no way to sugar coat it, if that happens, it's a rainstorm

 

And the northern stream needs to be stronger and more energetic in order for the phase to happen in the first place. And that works hand in hand with having a strong mid level center over the Great Lakes.

 

So we're really working against a lose-lose situation right now.

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i was just about to say that. A closed 850 low tracking over buffalo = rain for the metro area, no way to sugar coat it, if that happens, it's a rainstorm

 

Even a track to our east like the 12z GFS just has too much antecedent warmth like others have been mentioning.

The lack of decent blocking allows canadian high to slip off the coast too soon.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/gfs078hr_sfc_ptyp.gif

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