Friday February 8th Storm Potential

[mikemurph44]

The 0Z high-res EURO for NEUS shows (for NYC) Rn. @90hrs. ie. Fri. AM, Hv.Rn. @96hrs., Mixed Lt. @102hrs., Lt.Sn. ending @108hrs., ie early Sat. AM.

32deg. line forced north before onset, then is able to come back at end.

What is the thrill here? 32deg. line goes far north of us. I call would call 30 miles away a close call, but this is more than that at height of precip. here.

. Yea, places like orange county, putnam, dutchess, sullivan, sussex, are going to be close, but even the immediate suburbs, rockland, westchester, passaic look to turn over to plain rain

[MJO812]

At hour 66, it's coming north with a lot of cold air up north with the confluence holding strong.

 

Low on Hatteras at hour 72

[Dosh]

Welp, 12z GFS is supercharging the primary and we get rain. Something tells me this solution will win out over the Euro simply due to how these storms always end up.

[96blizz]

((GFS + Euro) / 2) please.

 

Thank you.

[MJO812]

40/70 benchmark track on the GFS. Big step towards the Euro.

[Allsnow]

Congrats boston

[Weathergun]

12z GFS still phase a little too late for us. But still big hit for most of New England.

[Dosh]

Not happy with the track of the primary but holy crap, Boston.

[Zir0b]

Boston gets obliterated. New England special, don't think this storm is for us.

[earthlight]

What an awesome solution for Southern New England. Perfect track and a monster CCB. But a very odd looking phase aloft.

[NEG NAO]

40/70 benchmark track on the GFS. Big step towards the Euro.

coating to an inch or so then washed away by rain on this run.......................same old story this winter when its cold enough no moisture and now even with a coastal we will end up withbasically little or nothing story of 12/13

[jm1220]

Congrats boston

Boston has a much better shot at this than we do, because they have latitude and longitude. But we do have a shot if we can get a slightly quicker phase. For now though, I would anticipate something like what we saw Dec 29th.

[96blizz]

I know this will sound very weenie-ish, but I have a hard time believing a storm w/ that location, deepening that rapidly at this time of year will not be colder.

[MJO812]

Boston gets obliterated. New England special, don't think this storm is for us.

 

A few hours earlier with the phasing and we would have been in business.

[BxEngine]

coating to an inch or so then washed away by rain on this run.......................same old story this winter when its cold enough no moisture and now even with a coastal we will end up withbasically little or nothing story of 12/13

Dude youve run every single scenario out there, pretty easy to claim a win that way.

[jm1220]

I know this will sound very weenie-ish, but I have a hard time believing a storm w/ that location, deepening that rapidly at this time of year will not be colder.

Dec 29th rained for most of us outside of CT, but we had a rapidly deepening low off Cape Cod. The primary destroyed any shot we had at snow. We absolutely need that primary to die faster and for a quicker phase, or else we'll be watching on the sidelines as New England gets crushed. This is certainly the kind of storm where Boston leaps ahead of us in snow.

[Dsnowx53]

You'd think once the primary dies, those highs to the north might have a stronger influence (than what is modeled), and combine that with (hopefully) some precipitation, you could get a dynamically cooling CCB before the storm moves out. 

[PB GFI]

Yeh , Great run for SNE . We CCB but its gona be on the backend as of now - need a 6 hr earlier phase . would still rain , but would pull 850`s down earlier so CCB would be more meaningful .

[green tube]

Has anyone looked at DT's post about oz Euro.

 

His maps seem to indicate that we get mostly snow. Can some one look and let me know if you agree.?

 

 

Rossi

 

i think his dyslexia is kicking in (no joke).  it's a confusing, odd, flat-out indecipherable map for our area.

[MJO812]

That 1032 high up north needs to be a little more south for much of the area to see snow. Still have time though.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[IsentropicLift]

Breaking down the 12z GFS basis the 850 freezing line only, NW areas stay almost all frozen except for a brief period

 

hr 75

 

hr 78 most of us change over

 

 

hr 81 coastal takes over and 850's begin crashing towards the the coast. NW areas change back over quickly

 

 

By hr 84 we're all back to snow as we get hit with some of the CCB. Very nice run.

 

[bluewave]

A few hours earlier with the phasing and we would have been in business.

 

I think if the phasing was a little earlier, then this would be even further west.

[jjvesnow]

Yeh , Great run for SNE . We CCB but its gona be on the backend as of now - need a 6 hr earlier phase . would still rain , but would pull 850`s down earlier so CCB would be more meaningful .

 North and West of the city look like mostly snow with .50+ QPF falling. 

[Dsnowx53]

That phase really is sloppy and takes a lot of time considering how close the shortwaves are to each other. If we had a stronger ridge out west, that northern stream wave would be forced to dive further south quicker.

 

However, if we can just clean up that phase a bit, we might have an interesting Friday. 

[jjvesnow]

I think if the phasing was a little earlier, then this would be even further west.

Further west you would get into the CCB and that would be snow.

[Weathergun]

You'd think once the primary dies, those highs to the north might have a stronger influence (than what is modeled), and combine that with (hopefully) some precipitation, you could get a dynamically cooling CCB before the storm moves out. 

 

Both northern and southern streams were noticeably stronger this run of the GFS. It still appears that northern stream is more dominant.

[Dsnowx53]

I think if the phasing was a little earlier, then this would be even further west.

 

 

It's still a pretty progressive pattern, and the storm track itself is still relatively far east, so I think we can afford an earlier phase, as it would yield only a small bump west in this progressive regime. I still think we want an earlier phase, as that might be the only way to erode the primary low and get a CCB to develop in time for our latitude. 

[earthlight]

Needs to phase 6 hours earlier and then we can start talking about dynamic cooling.

 

[Allsnow]

Boston has a much better shot at this than we do, because they have latitude and longitude. But we do have a shot if we can get a slightly quicker phase. For now though, I would anticipate something like what we saw Dec 29th.

Agree. I feel we at least have a better air mass to our north then dec 29th. I would not totally write this off. I'm not say anyone is doing that, places nw of the city should be excited

[jm1220]

I think if the phasing was a little earlier, then this would be even further west.

If it phases earlier, I would think the 850s would crash SE faster as the low develops and grows a comma head faster. It's not a grerat setup but not the worst either with the strong high. But the primary hanging on is what likely would screw it for us southwest of CT. Hopefully this trends weaker in the future. If by tomorrow we keep seeing this, I'll get somewhat optimistic.