rgwp96 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 9:39 PM, rossi said: You guys should read JB. He thinks its a very close call on Frdays storm And the one behind it should be colder -interesting to say the least, Rossi why? hes a clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 9:51 PM, rgwp96 said: why? hes a clown. Did you read what HM said? He is saying the same thing JB is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:12 PM, 1234abc said: Did you read what HM said? He is saying the same thing JB is saying. Dude chill you're not getting a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:12 PM, 1234abc said: Did you read what HM said? He is saying the same thing JB is saying. The next storm is a GL cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:15 PM, bluewave said: The next storm is a GL cutter. Which guidance shows that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 GFS has a clipper lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:15 PM, bluewave said: The next storm is a GL cutter. No it isn't . The storm after next week will be one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:16 PM, BxEngine said: Which guidance shows that? All the guidance has the next low around 7-8 days out cutting to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:19 PM, bluewave said: All the guidance has the next low around 7-8 days out cutting to the lakes. Theres a chance of a storm before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:22 PM, BxEngine said: Theres a chance of a storm before that. Not with the big high coming down in the wake of Friday's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 BXengine is talking about the Friday storm which the Euro and Euro ensemble mean amplifies the storm while the GFS has a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:30 PM, bluewave said: Not with the big high coming down in the wake of Friday's storm. Ummm.... Friday is the next storm, that was my point..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 GFS lost the lakes cutter after next weekends storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:34 PM, BxEngine said: Ummm.... Friday is the next storm, that was my point..... But you quoted my post which was responding to the next one after that. You guys should read JB. He thinks its a very close call on Frdays storm And the one behind it should be colder -interesting to say the least, Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:40 PM, bluewave said: But you quoted my post which was responding to the next one after that. You guys should read JB. He thinks its a very close call on Frdays storm And the one behind it should be colder -interesting to say the least, Rossi Hes discussing 2 storms. (ie the first part that you forgot to bold)"The next storm" without context in a thread for the friday storm isnt very clear. Carry on.....no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Euro might be showing it's phasing bias this winter again with the day 5 storm because no other model really has it. 18z GFS got alittle more interesting with the day 8-9 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 18z GFS ensemble member P004 looks nearly identical to the 12z ECMWF, but even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Only 1 member is like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 11:32 PM, CooL said: Only 1 member is like the euro. Others are close and focus much more on the southern stream and more phasing than the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 No one seems to have an idea about mid-late feb & early march...Usually forecasters have "somewhat" of an idea, but it seems like this period is up in the air. 18z is interesting for the day 8 storm. It dives the PV ahead of the storm, it stalls the front and develops a 2nd low...how east the front gets? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 12:56 AM, Highzenberg said: No one seems to have an idea about mid-late feb & early march...Usually forecasters have "somewhat" of an idea, but it seems like this period is up in the air. 18z is interesting for the day 8 storm. It dives the PV ahead of the storm, it stalls the front and develops a 2nd low...how east the front gets? We'll see. Probly won't play out anywhere close to that but i thought the setup trended more interesting but it's light years away, it really is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 0z UKMET looks interesting for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 A) Posting the UKMET is useless. This model has lost all credibility this winter. For the I-95, having a SLP over OH is almost never a good thing. On 2/4/2013 at 4:54 AM, 1234abc said: 0z UKMET looks interesting for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 4:59 AM, Storm At Sea said: A) Posting the UKMET is useless. This model has lost all credibility this winter. For the I-95, having a SLP over OH is almost never a good thing. Interesting. It absolutely nailed several of the storms this year, better than any other model hands down. It is ranked second right now only behind the ECMWF. And I can verify that it nailed several storm better this winter than any other model. It will not get every one right, but the only reason people hate this model is because it has terrible 24 hr time steps without precip out past 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 0z NOGAPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 5:06 AM, 1234abc said: Interesting. It absolutely nailed several of the storms this year, better than any other model hands down. It is ranked second right now only behind the ECMWF. And I can verify that it nailed several storm better this winter than any other model. It will not get every one right, but the only reason people hate this model is because it has terrible 24 hr time steps without precip out past 72 hrs. Who ranks these models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Quoting 500 mb anomaly statistics is not going to stop me from trashing your UKMET post. Just because it might be 2nd to the Euro, which has also been doing miserably this winter, does not mean that it's getting the surface correct. It has been absolutely terrible at the surface; every time people are grasping for straws, they post the UKMET. It's notorious for overdeveloping east coast storms. On 2/4/2013 at 5:06 AM, 1234abc said: Interesting. It absolutely nailed several of the storms this year, better than any other model hands down. It is ranked second right now only behind the ECMWF. And I can verify that it nailed several storm better this winter than any other model. It will not get every one right, but the only reason people hate this model is because it has terrible 24 hr time steps without precip out past 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 0z ECMWF has a deepening 996mb low about 100 miles off the Jersey coast that it intensifies to 988mb as it takes it to to the Benchmark. Looks like areas just to the NW of the city have a chance at significant snow on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 6:02 AM, West Milford Highlander said: Who ranks these models? On 2/4/2013 at 6:02 AM, West Milford Highlander said: Who ranks these models?CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Euro just trended closer to a rain to snow bomb..I really thought it would back off but i guess not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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