NOVAForecaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" . I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day. It didn't miss by that much. I got an inch before it all melted, and it snowed another 4 hours or so after that. Pretty sure I would've had a solid 1.5" had it all stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. HA! Uhm, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO. honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO. Yeah you may have missed his point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR model is probably the best short term model I use. It is very accurate under 12 hrs especially with radar. It actually looks good for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The HRRR is still pretty lame except NW on the 17z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. This is all fine by me... I'd be disappointed if our run without 2" ended up with just 2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful). I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care. Of course, that means nothing. Each event is different. It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other. Radar looks pretty good. Almost game time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR model is probably the best short term model I use. It is very accurate under 12 hrs especially with radar. It actually looks good for your area. it's hit or miss tho not sure if it's any more hit or miss than the RAP. both are relatively consistent in their ideas which don't necessarily completely match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful). I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care. Of course, that means nothing. Each event is different. It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other. Radar looks pretty good. Almost game time now. but how much is actually hitting the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hi-res nam is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 but how much is actually hitting the ground? Well right now Wxbug radar has me under light blue and I have mostly clear skies... Temp is 36F with a 21 DP, so there is gonna be some virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 19Z RAP looks pretty bad for areas from DC south and really nice for winterwxluvr and peeps to the north and west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 19Z RAP looks pretty bad for areas from DC south and really nice for winterwxluvr and peeps to the north and west of DC. being right on the tight gradient from something to nothing kinda sucks. verbatim it still looks marginally ok imby but perilous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 being right on the tight gradient from something to nothing kinda sucks. verbatim it still looks marginally ok imby but perilous. For me it looks bad. I'll be happy with conversational snow. I don't like the surface low being as far north as it is with a weak vort. That usually doesn't work well south of the low track at least on this side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hi res nam has almost 2" for Davis WV...i should road trip...someone out there is going to get 12-18" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hi res nam has almost 2" for Davis WV...i should road trip...someone out there is going to get 12-18" + I wonder how easy it would be to get there even before the snow starts. All these clippers have hit them hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder how easy it would be to get there even before the snow starts. All these clippers have hit them hard. they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper embrace the cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper Me too but in mby I wouldn't be surprised if I saw flurries that weren't even heavy enough to whiten a car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Me too but in mby I wouldn't be surprised if I saw flurries that weren't even heavy enough to whiten a car. Gee, hope to see something n of bwi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder how easy it would be to get there even before the snow starts. All these clippers have hit them hard. I drive to Davis a lot to XC ski, you'd be surprised how well they take care of the roads. I've gotten up there in my 2WD during some pretty big storms. That said, I'm investing in chains for my front two tires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Cinci is getting hammered right now. Traffic cams look like quarter mile vis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Me too but in mby I wouldn't be surprised if I saw flurries that weren't even heavy enough to whiten a car. I should have road tripped to your area for your 1.5" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Nam and gfs were pretty dry here...when in doubt go with persistence....I'm gonna go with a nice deck frosting and perhaps some grass whitening....congrats Jonjon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 For me it looks bad. I'll be happy with conversational snow. I don't like the surface low being as far north as it is with a weak vort. That usually doesn't work well south of the low track at least on this side of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hi-res nam is awful It has been just an awful model of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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