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2/4-2/5 Lt. Snow Disco/Obs Thread


WinterWxLuvr

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We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of :weenie:  hugging the RAP is borderline insane.

 

honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much.

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honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much.

+ 1

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Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" .

I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day.

It didn't miss by that much.  I got an inch before it all melted, and it snowed another 4 hours or so after that.  Pretty sure I would've had a solid 1.5" had it all stuck.

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Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO.

honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much.

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Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO.

Yeah you may have missed his point...

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I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful).  I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care.

 

Of course, that means nothing.  Each event is different.  It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other.

 

Radar looks pretty good.  Almost game time now.

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HRRR model is probably the best short term model I use. It is very accurate under 12 hrs especially with radar. It actually looks good for your area.

 

it's hit or miss tho not sure if it's any more hit or miss than the RAP. both are relatively consistent in their ideas which don't necessarily completely match.

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I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful).  I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care.

 

Of course, that means nothing.  Each event is different.  It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other.

 

Radar looks pretty good.  Almost game time now.

but how much is actually hitting the ground?

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The 19Z RAP looks pretty bad for areas from DC south and really nice for winterwxluvr and peeps to the north and west of DC. 

 

being right on the tight gradient from something to nothing kinda sucks. verbatim it still looks marginally ok imby but perilous.

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being right on the tight gradient from something to nothing kinda sucks. verbatim it still looks marginally ok imby but perilous.

 

For me it looks bad.  I'll be happy with conversational snow.   I don't like the surface low being as far north as it is with a weak vort.  That usually doesn't work well south of the low track at least on this side of the city. 

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I wonder how easy it would be to get there even before the snow starts.  All these clippers have hit them hard.

 

they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper

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they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper

 

embrace the cartopper

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they're gotten 27" in the last 5 days and 13" snowcover not counting today....I think not that hard...they clear roads ASAP out there...of course I have to work so I will have to settle for our pixie dust cartopper

 

Me too but in mby I wouldn't be surprised if I saw flurries that weren't even heavy enough to whiten a car. 

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I wonder how easy it would be to get there even before the snow starts.  All these clippers have hit them hard.

 

I drive to Davis a lot to XC ski, you'd be surprised how well they take care of the roads.  I've gotten up there in my 2WD during some pretty big storms.  That said, I'm investing in chains for my front two tires.

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