Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 thats the one I just dont really get....I got just barely under an inch sticking a ruler on top of a table at the end of the storm after it all compressed... yeah that one's a bit shady. they seemed pretty close on the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 700rh and omega does suggestperiods of increased intensity for both dc and balt this is on 18z rap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18z RAP has already backed off the expected whiteout Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" . I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 maybe we'll get hi-res nam'ed in a half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 maybe we'll get hi-res nam'ed in a half hour my main concern is that we'll be fringed for 4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" . I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day. For this system you are in a good spot compared to the rest of us. I don't see .30 but you should do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hrrrrrr doesnt like i95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 hrrrrrr doesnt like i95 tot?p_t3sfc_f15.png [Ctblizz] we toss [/ctblizz] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope this storm can put the rap talk out to bed. Or maybe it will vindicate it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope this storm can put the rap talk out to bed. Or maybe it will vindicate it? it's at least moderately useful in these small events.. it seems its always too wet but just factor that in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope this storm can put the rap talk out to bed. Or maybe it will vindicate it? It's this year's CRAS hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Ji called...he wants to know how much for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 it is good for location...and it adjusts pretty well....the QPF and temps arent meant to be taken literally, though it will imply where the heavier stuff might fall...it definitely isnt a useless tool Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR is impressive for HGR, has around .3 for them QPFwise. Again likely bullish, but if HGR gets .3 I doubt <.1 in Balt. Either way, nice to see a little bullishness with nice qpf nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" . I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day. I'm rooting for you guys. Especially WinterWxLuvr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Damn thing keeps bulls-eyeing me and WinterWxLuvr hour after hour with 0.30" . I received 0.03" yesterday when it had me solidly in the 0.10-0.15" range all day. It didn't miss by that much. I got an inch before it all melted, and it snowed another 4 hours or so after that. Pretty sure I would've had a solid 1.5" had it all stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 We need another model like the RAP, except run by the Europeans or something, because the amount of hugging the RAP is borderline insane. HA! Uhm, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO. honestly.. you guys that have nothing useful to post should just not post. not sure why we have to deal with this crap in these threads. pretty much everyone tracking these systems know they are tiny liquid producers and aren't expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Exactly. As much as I want snow, I don't believe that anyone is likely to see over .2 anywhere except in western MD. If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. The RAP is likely overdoing it, but the NAM is also likely underdoing it. This is likely to be similar to the clipper we got 2 weeks ago on that Thursday morning that gave everyone a general 1" and gave the morning commuters a headache. JMHO. Yeah you may have missed his point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR model is probably the best short term model I use. It is very accurate under 12 hrs especially with radar. It actually looks good for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The HRRR is still pretty lame except NW on the 17z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If someone east of IAD or BWI gets more than 2" of snow, I would be surprised. This is all fine by me... I'd be disappointed if our run without 2" ended up with just 2"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful). I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care. Of course, that means nothing. Each event is different. It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other. Radar looks pretty good. Almost game time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR model is probably the best short term model I use. It is very accurate under 12 hrs especially with radar. It actually looks good for your area. it's hit or miss tho not sure if it's any more hit or miss than the RAP. both are relatively consistent in their ideas which don't necessarily completely match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I try to be pretty honest in what I say, and I can honestly say that IMO the RAP has done very well (my area of course) this year with the exception of Saturday (when it was awful). I didn't look at it yesterday as I wasn't here and didn't care. Of course, that means nothing. Each event is different. It isn't any more likely to be correct/incorrect this time vs. any other. Radar looks pretty good. Almost game time now. but how much is actually hitting the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 but how much is actually hitting the ground? Well right now Wxbug radar has me under light blue and I have mostly clear skies... Temp is 36F with a 21 DP, so there is gonna be some virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The 19Z RAP looks pretty bad for areas from DC south and really nice for winterwxluvr and peeps to the north and west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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