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2/4-2/5 Lt. Snow Disco/Obs Thread


WinterWxLuvr

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DCA could potentially have sfc temp issues but just barely if so. It's not warm today and DP are fairly low. Places n and w should be totally fine. RAP seems too warm in the lowest levels.

 

The RAP has a warm bias, lean towards the NAM or GFS soundings.   The RAP our 850 temps goign above zeruo during the dec 2009 and feb 6 2010 event.  Bob Ryan actually mentioned that to me during one of the storms, can't remember which.  I do think it has a precip bias problem as to me this does not look like a .30 for IAD event. 

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Euro still get the .05" line to about DC/Balt

.1" from near VA/WV border up thru N Md.

 

To me that seems reasonable. I could see someone getting .10 to .15 to our northwest but think that may be about the limit for the dc area and probably would lean towards the lower number.  luckily I'm not forecasting. 

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To me that seems reasonable. I could see someone getting .10 to .15 to our northwest but think that may be about the limit for the dc area and probably would lean towards the lower number.  luckily I'm not forecasting. 

so you dont agree with henry m that im getting 3-6? :(

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The RAP has a warm bias, lean towards the NAM or GFS soundings. The RAP our 850 temps goign above zeruo during the dec 2009 and feb 6 2010 event. Bob Ryan actually mentioned that to me during one of the storms, can't remember which. I do think it has a precip bias problem as to me this does not look like a .30 for IAD event.

Final Call

DCA: .4

IAD: .8

BWI: 1.1

HGR: 1.8 (from folks around there since the airport doesnt take obs)

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The only thing I'm taking away from the rap is that is does indicate a nice band feature. Good moisture, vv's, ok vort ( with it was wound a little better) and even surface flow & 925mb aren't counter productive. There's a hint of se-e component in N md. Maybe the parrs area gets a nice dose. 

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so you dont agree with henry m that im getting 3-6? :(

lol, no I don't.  Be happy if you get .50". IF you get an inch go out and buy some booze and celebrate with Matt or Tracker.  Even if the .30" liquid came in I don't see how you'd get 3-6 inches with marginal surface temps.  Of course, I could always be wrong and biased since I don't expect much in mby. 

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The only thing I'm taking away from the rap is that is does indicate a nice band feature. Good moisture, vv's, ok vort ( with it was wound a little better) and even surface flow & 925mb aren't counter productive. There's a hint of se-e component in N md. Maybe the parrs area gets a nice dose. 

OT but I think you might be the fastest learning person on this forum in a long, long time. I have watched you go from Q+A to talking almost like Wes does sometimes. Not speaking specifically about this post but more your posts in general. I am mind blown. 

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OT but I think you might be the fastest learning person on this forum in a long, long time. I have watched you go from Q+A to talking almost like Wes does sometimes. Not speaking specifically about this post but more your posts in general. I am mind blown. 

 

Good sales people have a way of sounding like they know what they are talking about even when they're talking out of their posterior region. 

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lol, no I don't. Be happy if you get .50". IF you get an inch go out and buy some booze and celebrate with Matt or Tracker. Even if the .30" liquid came in I don't see how you'd get 3-6 inches with marginal surface temps. Of course, I could always be wrong and biased since I don't expect much in mby.

.5 sounds good. Got that in 3 of 4 not counting yesterday as one.

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OT but I think you might be the fastest learning person on this forum in a long, long time. I have watched you go from Q+A to talking almost like Wes does sometimes. Not speaking specifically about this post but more your posts in general. I am mind blown. 

 

lol,  He has learned plenty except the pessimism usually needed in the DC area.  Bob, just kidding with you.  You've made some nice posts this winter. 

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temps wont be a big deal...we are hardly warming today...DCA and IAD are both 34

 

I think you are mainly right but for guys south of the city who get only light snow, I think it might be a problem for any paved surface.  We'll need to measure on mulch or on a deck if we get enough to measure.  I'm 35.4 but have dropped a little as the heavier clouds have worked in.  Outside of the city to the west, they should have no problem. 

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