WVclimo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm curious as to how you would know that. The SREFS put down more than 0.1 for your area as well as mine. That the RAP would be wet isn't that big of a surprise. It has been pretty good. Not sure I understand the theory that if something looks decent on a model that it has to be wrong. Well, the run I looked at gave us 0.30+ liquid. No other model even shows much more than half that amount. Believe me, I hope its on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the rap gives us like 8 hours of snow. im hugging the crap out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Well, the run I looked at gave us 0.30+ liquid. No other model even shows much more than half that amount. Believe me, I hope its on to something. I'm not sure what run you were looking at. the 09Z SREF has one member giving bwi .14 with the mean and median being .06. Dc's heaviest member was .06 wotj tje median being .02. Even the one member giving BWI .14 looked dubious and appeared to me to be an outlier. The low going almost over us with a really weak vort suggests overrunning/warm advection will be the primary lifting mechanism and that will be north of the low. Up towards the PA border might do pretty well. DC south, looks pretty grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the rap gives us like 8 hours of snow. im hugging the crap out of it. RAP_255_2013020413_F13_CREF_SURFACE.png It's sure an outlier compared to the SREF and NAM. What did the almighty Euro give us last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's sure an outlier compared to the SREF and NAM. What did the almighty Euro give us last night? .05 to DC/Balt.. a bit less for you prob (non shaded so maybe .04?). .1" line western loudoun area. this one does look juicier west of the apps than the others have been. the vort doesnt look as good as it did once.. now tomorrow looks better in that dept. tho i wonder if it'll totally de-juice. my guess is the nam is too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the rap gives us like 8 hours of snow. im hugging the crap out of it. RAP_255_2013020413_F13_CREF_SURFACE.png At least the GFS is still giving us precip. I'd believe it before the NAM though the latter's resolution should theoretically give it an advantage. I never know what to make of the RAP. I don't think I got any of the measureable it gave me yesterday. I only saw light flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm not sure what run you were looking at. the 09Z SREF has one member giving bwi .14 with the mean and median being .06. Dc's heaviest member was .06 wotj tje median being .02. Even the one member giving BWI .14 looked dubious and appeared to me to be an outlier. The low going almost over us with a really weak vort suggests overrunning/warm advection will be the primary lifting mechanism and that will be north of the low. Up towards the PA border might do pretty well. DC south, looks pretty grim. Wes, I was referring to the RAP run. I'm counting on my location 8 miles from the Mason-Dixon line helping me out tonight. EDIT- And yes, the RAP promised me more snow Saturday and Sunday than I saw here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 .05 to DC/Balt.. a bit less for you prob (non shaded so maybe .04?). .1" line western loudoun area. this one does look juicier west of the apps than the others have been. the vort doesnt look as good as it did once.. now tomorrow looks better in that dept. tho i wonder if it'll totally de-juice. my guess is the nam is too dry. I agree about the NAM. I suspect it is too dry but do think north may do better than south with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 At least the GFS is still giving us precip. I'd believe it before the NAM though the latter's resolution should theoretically give it an advantage. I never know what to make of the RAP. I don't think I got any of the measureable it gave me yesterday. I only saw light flurries. RAP never looked that great to me yesterday. It did pass some stuff thru but looked mainly scattered like we saw. The daytime stuff had no chance where it fell with temps near freezing. I don't follow it enough to say whether it's better than worse but I think it's useful if you use an avg of runs etc., perhaps always hedging on the dry side of its forecast. It is quite wet (.3"+ in spots).. tho sharp gradient NW to SE. I think someone could do 'well' in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I agree about the NAM. I suspect it is too dry but do think north may do better than south with this one. yeah...someone might get banded good again, but it will probably be the northern burbs...I can already envision watching the band from Germantown to Columbia and we get nicked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 HRRR Forecasted Radar @ 4z tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 yeah...someone might get banded good again, but it will probably be the northern burbs...I can already envision watching the band from Germantown to Columbia and we get nicked the soundign have us pretty dry below 850 mb on the GFS and RAP. I hope we get into the better band as it would saturate that lower level but think it might be a sign that this time things will be north and we'll get fringed. Plus it's not going to be below freezing when we start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 the soundign have us pretty dry below 850 mb on the GFS and RAP. I hope we get into the better band as it would saturate that lower level but think it might be a sign that this time things will be north and we'll get fringed. Plus it's not going to be below freezing when we start. I wonder how many people from places like York and Lancaster will show up out of nowhere tonight with obs and pictures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 nice bullseye in moco from lwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Probably a bunch (york/lancaster). Figures best banding might be north of me, with the other clippers best banding has been south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder how many people from places like York and Lancaster will show up out of nowhere tonight with obs and pictures All of them if they are jackpotting and none of them if they are snowholing. Easy question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder how many people from places like York and Lancaster will show up out of nowhere tonight with obs and pictures It they are getting in a good band a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It they are getting in a good band a bunch. I can't wait to delete their obs and pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I wonder how many people from places like York and Lancaster will show up out of nowhere tonight with obs and pictures I hope they do show pics and report obs. As has been discussed far too many times, there are lots of folks that live in southern York Co. and work in the Baltimore area. No reason at all for them to not post in the MA threads. Our imaginary message board boundaries are stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope they do show pics and report obs. As has been discussed far too many times, there are lots of folks that live in southern York Co. and work in the Baltimore area. No reason at all for them to not post in the MA threads. Our imaginary message board boundaries are stupid. most of them contribute very little except hit and run obs/pics when it snows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope they do show pics and report obs. As has been discussed far too many times, there are lots of folks that live in southern York Co. and work in the Baltimore area. No reason at all for them to not post in the MA threads. Our imaginary message board boundaries are stupid. If I have family in the Berkshires, can I post obs and pics of snow they get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I hope they do show pics and report obs. As has been discussed far too many times, there are lots of folks that live in southern York Co. and work in the Baltimore area. No reason at all for them to not post in the MA threads. Our imaginary message board boundaries are stupid. I really dont care that much...I like pics of snow....I just find it amusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 If I have family in the Berkshires, can I post obs and pics of snow they get? No. I suppose you fail to see the relevancy of weather just across the MD/PA border for folks that commute to our area on a daily basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I really dont care that much...I like pics of snow....I just find it amusing Think about it this way....would you rather have folks posting about snow that is really close by or read the daily pissing matches in these threads or posts with people talking about who is or is not on their ignore lists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I can't wait to delete their obs and pics. let em glaot, we'll have our time sometime in the next 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Think about it this way....would you rather have folks posting about snow that is really close by or read the daily pissing matches in these threads or posts with people talking about who is or is not on their ignore lists. that's silly. state lines are very accurate when it comes to delineating weather and climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Think about it this way....would you rather have folks posting about snow that is really close by or read the daily pissing matches in these threads or posts with people talking about who is or is not on their ignore lists. With the way this winter has gone, the ignore list drama is more entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 that's silly. state lines are very accurate when it comes to delineating weather and climate. public ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I will post the picture of my random inch with 1.5 inch drifts so that I can impress and make those with only car toppers envy the epic micro snow climate that is the Mason Dixon Plateau. Just dont flood up here with your snowmobiles as traffic is already bad enough on 83. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 The RAP isn't backing down. Man, what would tracking a solid system be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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