WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 What the heck. Seems like this one is at least throwing up a possibility for a little more precip, and maybe a better conveyor of moisture. A couple of the SREF members have thrown in a bit different look for Tuesday, the Euro had this as a later event, so perhaps we've got an evolving situation on our hands. As others have pointed out, there's not much going on at 500, but we've had good vorts do nothing for us so maybe this one turns our luck. Hope I didn't jinx it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:04 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: What the heck. Seems like this one is at least throwing up a possibility for a little more precip, and maybe a better conveyor of moisture. A couple of the SREF members have thrown in a bit different look for Tuesday, the Euro had this as a later event, so perhaps we've got an evolving situation on our hands. As others have pointed out, there's not much going on at 500, but we've had good vorts do nothing for us so maybe this one turns our luck. Hope I didn't jinx it. This one I like, I'm with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Storm Cancel per 0Z NAM for DC and south. Still has time for a S trend and the slight southern connection gives me hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:09 AM, NOVAForecaster said: Storm Cancel per 0Z NAM for DC and south. Still has time for a S trend and the slight southern connection gives me hope Yeah, it's certainly not a region wide event. There are several SREF members that are further south. It interests me because it seems wetter than previous systems, and because of the differing solutions showing up across the GFS, NAM, EURO, and short ens. I really wouldn't dare to speculate on what it will be. It's just a chance I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 00z GFS declines, says 0.05 for everyone... so another dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 3:49 AM, yoda said: 00z GFS declines, says 0.05 for everyone... so another dusting Yes, appears to be very close to its 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 UKIE says nope to Mon night, looks like GFS in QPF... perhaps Tues night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 5:30 AM, yoda said: UKIE says nope to Mon night, looks like GFS in QPF... perhaps Tues night I wonder what threat is real, Mon night or tues night. GFS has tues night to our north, gem too really. UKMET has it headed for us, but Monday night north of DC again. Its like Ian said, 24 hours out might be the time we really start knowing what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 06z NAM laughs at everyone besides the usual 5 counties that get the good stuff from clippers as the mts again eat up most of everything for Mon night... there is nothing Tues night at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Did the Euro give the precip it had earlier (Tues)? Does it show anything at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 12:33 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Did the Euro give the precip it had earlier (Tues)? Does it show anything at all? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 For HGR: 00Z GFS 0.12" 00Z NAM 0.21" 06Z GFS 0.08" 06Z NAM 0.21" 12Z GFS 0.06" 12Z NAM 0.16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 clippers are clippers unless we get really lucky. too much hope put in 'southern connection'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 5:32 PM, Ian said: clippers are clippers unless we get really lucky. too much hope put in 'southern connection'. But ddweatherman likes it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 5:46 PM, yoda said: But ddweatherman likes it! Shut the hail up! I usually dont like clippers. Final call, DC .3, BWI .7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 5:47 PM, ddweatherman said: Shut the hail up! I usually dont like clippers. Final call, DC .3, BWI .7 qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 euro looked pretty dry. the vort pass is decent but it's not super strong. we might pull off another .5" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 7:40 PM, Ian said: euro looked pretty dry. the vort pass is decent but it's not super strong. we might pull off another .5" or so. No 1-2 inches? Darn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 7:42 PM, yoda said: No 1-2 inches? Darn...Gets .05 liquid to like western Loudoun.. we might be .02 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 7:43 PM, Ian said: Gets .05 liquid to like western Loudoun.. we might be .02 or so. Which clipper are you talking about? so many not so good ones it's hard to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 8:20 PM, usedtobe said: Which clipper are you talking about? so many not so good ones it's hard to know. the mon night one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 8:22 PM, Ian said: the mon night one. If it can overperform and give me .03 maybe I can get .4" I'm working towards warning critera snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2013 Author Share Posted February 3, 2013 Well it certainly isn't looking great. The NAM and SREF have me over 0.1 which easily makes it my best in a while. NWS has 1-2 inches, which would be great. So, we'll see I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/3/2013 at 10:28 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Well it certainly isn't looking great. The NAM and SREF have me over 0.1 which easily makes it my best in a while. NWS has 1-2 inches, which would be great. So, we'll see I suppose. Me, I'd just like enough snow so as not have it all melted by early afternoon the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Going to enjoy that 0.02 ddweatherman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 It's been bit like Garrett Co. last few days with snow and sun out and snowing on and off, on and off, pick up .5 to maybe an inch. Cold to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I know I am just a desperate snow weenie, but this radar seems to show some southern stream involvement. Is it possible we might have slightly more moisture to work with during tonight's clipper, or am I suffering from a severe case of radar hallucinations? http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.phphttp://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 RAP model looks way overdone again this morning for tonight's light snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 I'm liking the radar and RAP trends for tonight. Maybe someone gets 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 On 2/4/2013 at 1:38 PM, WVclimo said: RAP model looks way overdone again this morning for tonight's light snowfall. I'm curious as to how you would know that. The SREFS put down more than 0.1 for your area as well as mine. That the RAP would be wet isn't that big of a surprise. It has been pretty good. Not sure I understand the theory that if something looks decent on a model that it has to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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