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February 2nd-3rd Event Observations


Edge Weather

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30/11 Overcast

 

Nice forecast discussion from Upton:

 

 

THE 500MB TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ON SUNDAY...STRENGTHENINGTHE LOW MOVING NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW ANINVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH POSITIVEVORTICITY ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THIS WILL BE THEFOCUS OF GREATER QPF TOTALS. PINPOINTING WHERE EXACTLY THIS SETSUP...PIVOTS...AND TO WHAT DEGREE IT WILL ENHANCE PRECIP IS VERYDIFFICULT. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY EXITS TO THE EAST SUNDAYNIGHT...ENDING THE HIGHER THREATS OF SNOWFALL.COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT WHERE AN INVERTED TROUGH WAS IN THEVICINITY...THE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS FARTHERSOUTH...AND LIFT THEREFORE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG. LOW LEVEL LAPSERATES ARE FORECAST TO NOT BE AS STEEP...AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THEEVENT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. SO BEST GUESS THEREFORE IS FOR SNOWTO RAIN RATIOS TO NOT BE AS HIGH THIS TIME AROUND...AND PROBABLY INTHE ORDER OF 11:1 TO 15:1.WITH ALL OF THESE FACTORS...SNOWFALL FORECAST IS CHALLENGING WITHTHE POTENTIAL OF ONLY A DUSTING IN SOME SPOTS WITH A NARROW BAND OFA FEW INCHES NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM IT. THERE COULD ALSO BE EXTENDEDPERIODS WHERE NO SNOWFALL IS HAPPENING AND IT WILL ALMOST SEEM LIKE2 SEPARATE EVENTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. HAVE GONE WITH A QPF AXISORIENTED WNW/ESE CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND. STILL LOOKSLIKE WE WILL FALL SHORT OF ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. CURRENT SNOWFORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALLLOCATIONS EXCEPT LONG ISLAND...WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ISEXPECTED TO FALL.
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