Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[DoctorMu]

Houston got a soaking - spotty in NW Harris then?

 

 

Hoping for some wet stuff on Tuesday-Thursday

[Srain]

Houston got a soaking - spotty in NW Harris then?

 

 

Hoping for some wet stuff on Tuesday-Thursday

.15 in my rain gauge. I did have gusts to 45 mph when the outflow boundry passed. Cypress faired a bit better and some locations in NW Harris County reported near 1/2 inch. It's a start.

[Ed Lizard]

.15 in my rain gauge. I did have gusts to 45 mph when the outflow boundry passed. Cypress faired a bit better and some locations in NW Harris County reported near 1/2 inch. It's a start.

 

You live to close to my yard, obviously.   12Z GFS IAH meteogram has TT over 50, LI better than -6, and what looks like almost 180 degrees change between ESE surface winds and 500 mb,  Wish I had been able to grab a skew-T before the 18Z started rolling in.

 

Next best thing...

 

Already in SREF range, but I won't look at them in detail until tomorrow

[Disc]

Check out this bad boy likely dropping baseballs west of Corpus Christi..

 

 

[patrick7032]

Unless needed at the office later today...Abilene looks like a decent spot. I looked at points north and northwest in the slight risk area...and Big Springs was decent too...but low level depression was larger...with soundings showing only 9-11C dews.

[Srain]

It looks like the best chance of widespread rainfall we've seen in some time is ahead for the Region Tuesday into Thursday with the approaching slow moving upper low currently over Nevada. The QPF is in the 1-2 inch range with isolated higher amounts where heavier storms develop across West/N Central/Central and SE Texas with higher amounts for Southern Louisiana. Storm reports yesterday were rather impressive with hail covering the ground across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and strong gusty winds across SE Texas with minor hail reports around the Houston Area. CRP will conduct storm surveys today E of Cotulla, Freer, Alice, Benavides and Falfurrias where baseball sized hail fell yesterday afternoon/evening from a long tracking storm complex.

The medium range continues to advertise a deep Western trough regime developing next weekend into the second week of April suggesting Severe Season may well be arriving and hopefully bringing additional much needed rainfall to our drought parched Region.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

After weeks of dry weather….the area has entered into an active state.

 

Thunderstorms yesterday afternoon affected areas mainly east of a line from College Station to Hempstead to Sugar Land to Galveston. Several reports of large hail were noted and good soaking rainfall.

 

I am hard pressed to call the boundary which moved through late yesterday helping to spark the storms a cool front, but will go with that for now as dewpoints have in fact fallen off some and drier air over N TX is shifting slowly southward. Short break in the active pattern today will be replaced with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

 

Powerful upper level storm system offshore of CA this morning will begin to move inland over the next 12-24 hours and this will result in increasingly SW flow aloft over TX instead of NW which we had over the weekend. Low level moisture which has been scoured out of the region (but not far) by the Sunday storms is poised to make a strong return by this evening as pressures begin to lower out over W TX and winds turn more SE instead of NE and E. Should see low to mid 60 degree dewpoints return to the region this evening/overnight. Air mass will begin to destabilize Tuesday with heating and the approach of a low amplitude southern stream impulse in the sub-tropical jet. Brunt of lift with this disturbance should arrive after dark Tuesday and focus across the upper TX coastal waters into the coastal counties. Potential is for a coastal front to form up near/just offshore of the upper coast and act as a focus for thunderstorm development. While this is playing out the main storm system currently just off the W coast of the US will move into the four corners area and into W TX by early Wednesday. Strong and widespread upper level lift and splitting of the jet stream structures on the east side of this feature will promote vigorous thunderstorm development first over W and SW TX and then spreading eastward. Models are in decent agreement on a large scale MCS (meso convective system or thunderstorm complex) to form in the areas east of Big Bend to north of Del Rio and extending northward to near Midland. This complex will move ESE into the increasing low level jet overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It is uncertain how fast this complex will move toward coastal TX, but the initial severe threat Tuesday afternoon over SW TX should weaken Tuesday night with the loss of heating. Still feel that with good low level inflow over S TX feeding the system, the complex will make it all the way toward the coast by Wednesday morning.

 

Meso scale influences from outflow boundaries over the next few days may help to override large scale synoptic features and result in varying placements of convective developments. Global forecast models have the correct pattern and need ingredients for some heavy rainfall, but the meso scale can greatly alter what the global models “think” will happen. One such possibility is how much storm development occurs near/off the upper TX coast Tuesday night and does this “rob” good low level moisture inflow into the SW TX MCS.

 

Rainfall amounts should average 1-2 inches across much of the state of TX which will be much needed rainfall. Could see some higher amounts especially near the coast where a period of cell training could be possible Tuesday night and then again Wednesday morning with the main line. PWS rise to near 1.5-1.7 inches which is high, but not historic for early April. Dry grounds should be able to handle much of what falls, but urban areas could see some ponding under the heavier rain cores.

 

Sunday Storm Reports:

 

Panorama Village, Montgomery: 1.25 inch hail at FM 830 and I-45

 

11 SE of Conroe, Montgomery: tree fell on to pickup truck on FM 1485 near Grapeland

 

Morgan’s Point, Harris: 40mph outflow winds along leading edge gust front

 

Manvel, Brazoria: Dime size hail reported in Manvel

 

Galveston, Galveston: PORTS data recorded a 41mph wind gust at the Galveston North Jetty along thunderstorm gust front.

 

 

Freer, Duval: 4.25 inch diameter hail (softball) caused extensive damage across the towns of Freer and Benavides. Nearly all windows broken out of homes and all vehicle windshields shattered

[Ed Lizard]

1/16th optimistic that weakening CINH to the West, vague windshift, and WNW mid level flow will allow a susprise T-storm to pop West or Northwest of SETX and head East or East-Southeast.

The surprise storms are usually the best.

The hail producing supercell I drove into just North of the I-45 Beltway 8 intersection five or 7 years ago, (it looked sweet coming up 45, I think it had a wall cloud on the SW corner), nickels or quarters, I thought it might crack the windshield ( in fact, I had to look hard for the vaguest hint of sheet metal dimples, but it was loud) was not forecast at all in morning outlooks or discussions.

[Ed Lizard]

80% probability of severe Watch NW Texas/Southern Panhandle area.

[Ed Lizard]

I would have thought the ~25ºF depression between temps and dewpoints (not hot temps, dry air) would have minimized tornado potential.  It is in one of a series of cells tracking along a boundary, maybe previous cells have cooled the surface without stabilizing the surface.  I don't know.

 

 

TORNADO WARNING
TXC045-012230-
/O.NEW.KLUB.TO.W.0001.130401T2157Z-130401T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
457 PM CDT MON APR 1 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHERN BRISCOE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS.

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 454 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES
  WEST SOUTHWEST OF CAPROCK CANYON STATE PARK OR ABOUT NEAR
  SILVERTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CAPROCK
  CANYONS STATE PARK.

[patrick7032]

Today could be interesting at work.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX422 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

 

.SHORT TERM...NON SEVERE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES AT THIS TIME ACROSS THENORTHERN BIG COUNTRY IN THE VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVESLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ABOVE THESURFACE...STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS NOTED ON THE WATER VAPORLOOP DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE APPROACHING THE FOURCORNERS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WILL EATAWAY AT THE REMNANTS OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT HAS CAPPEDMUCH OF THE AREA /FOR WHAT HAS SEEMED LIKE YEARS/.AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THEAREA. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTHE LOW/MID 50S. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...THE WARM SECTORWILL DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTSAPPROACHING 60 DEGREES. THIS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPES UPWARDS OF1500-2000 J/KG. LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS LEAVE A LITTLE TO BEDESIRED BUT MODEL PROGS INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD STILL END UP WITHEFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 30 KTS...WHICH WILL AGAIN SUPPORTORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A TANGIBLE THREAT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS.CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE AIDED BY STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WITH MESOSCALE ASSISTANCE PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING UPPERTROPOSPHERIC JET OVER COAHUILA AND SOUTH TX AND A THERMALLY DIRECTCIRCULATION TIED TO LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. LCL HEIGHTS AREEXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUESARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE REALM OF 15 KTS. THUS...THE POTENTIAL FORISOLATED TORNADIC STORMS IS WORTH A MENTION. OTHERWISE...EXPECTLARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED AT 1-1.25 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICHIS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO FOR EARLY APRIL. GIVENTHE PRESENCE OF THIS SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCHFOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THEONSET OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THEI-10 CORRIDOR AFTER SUNSET. THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL AND GROWUPSCALE INTO AN MCS...PROPAGATING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THELATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NORTH WINDS AND COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THEAREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME LOW50S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSISTAFTER MIDNIGHT AS POST FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT CONTINUES.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX403 AM CDT TUE APR 2 2013

 

HAD SOME STORMS LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NE PERMIAN BASINBUT THESE HAVE MOVED OFF.  MODEL QPF DEVELOPS PRECIP THIS AFTERNOONAND TONIGHT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANSPECOS... BUT DOES SHOW SOME PRECIP AS FAR WEST AS CNM.  HAVE DECENTLOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH CURRENT DEWPTS IN THE EAST IN THE MID TOUPPER 50S... THESE WILL DECREASE WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.THE SWODY1 HAS A SLIGHT RISK EASTERN HALF TODAY/TONIGHT... GENERALLYALONG AND EAST OF A HOBBS TO MARATHON LINE.  THUNDERSTORMS... SOMEPOSSIBLE SEVERE... ARE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTTODAY.  A NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE TRYING TO COME TOGETHER TODAYINCLUDING THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW... THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLDFRONT... AND A DRYLINE.  COMBINE THAT WITH GOOD CAPE AND HIGH SHEARWILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTORDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL BELARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND... WITH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.FAVORED LOCATION FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAND EAST OF THE DRYLINE... THIS WILL FAVOR THE TRANS PECOS REGION.STORM THREAT WILL NOT END WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS POTENTIAL FORELEVATED SEVERE STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTOWEDNESDAY.

[Ed Lizard]

Happy Anniversary, Dallas!

[Srain]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

 

Storm system approaching TX midday with increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms this evening into Wednesday.

 

While synoptic scale models are in decent agreement with parameters to produce a good bout of much needed rainfall across the region, the meso scale features may help another story play out. Large scale upper level system over the SW US and strong short wave rounding through the base of this feature should eject ENE into SW TX over the next few hours spreading stronger lift into much of TX. Should begin to see an increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity from the SW to the NE by early evening as lift from the short wave comes to bear across the region. Main question is where storms develop. Appears some sort of coastal boundary (maybe a warm front) extends across the NW Gulf and then inland near Galveston and WNW toward Wharton. South of this boundary dewpoints have warmed into the upper 60’s and low 70’s while north dewpoints are in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Increasing large scale lift combined with breaks in the cloud cover SW of SE TX over the coastal bend into SC TX should result in the development of storms by late afternoon which will spread into the region during the evening hours. High resolution short term models have varying solutions on where and when storms will develop and how they will track across the region. Previous runs really favored the coastal sections, while more recent runs are favoring the developing from CLL to Lufkin and then sagging a line slowly SE into the region overnight.

 

In addition to local development this afternoon/evening, stronger forcing arrives across SW and WC TX tonight and this should help ignite a complex of thunderstorms from W of Austin into NE MX which will track ESE toward the area toward daybreak on Wednesday. I am a little nervous with so much activity forecasted over SE TX tonight that eh approaching line will have much “fuel” to work with by the time it arrives Wednesday. Much depends on how much thunderstorm activity develops this evening and how far south any outflow boundaries drive which could cut off the good supply of Gulf moisture into any approaching storm complex.

 

Still feel a solid 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely across the area with PWs increasing toward 1.5 inches. Could see some higher amounts where training cells develop or where any lines slow, especially tonight. With grounds parched from the recent dry weather, much of what falls should soak in although some minor urban flooding issues will be possible under the heaviest rain cores.

 

[Srain]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0370
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
  
   VALID 021859Z - 022000Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   AND AHEAD OF A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF DMGG
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST
   TSTMS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING ISSUANCE OF A WW.
  
   DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF HEATING WITHIN BREAKS OF WIDESPREAD
   CLOUDINESS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 F IN SOME
   LOCATIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NOTED INVOF LOCALIZED
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER LLANO COUNTY. THIS IS OCCURRING S OF
   A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT...WHICH WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR SJT-BWD-30 S
   FTW AS OF 19Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER LIMITING SFC
   HEATING...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS LOWER
   60S/ ALONG WITH INCREASING ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE
   APPROACHING THE BIG BEND REGION SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH-RESOLUTION
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEMI-ORGANIZED
   FRONTAL CLUSTER OR LINE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL TX. A DMGG WIND
   THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...BUT COULD BE LIMITED BY
   ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE REGIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   HAIL AND LOCALIZED DMGG WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO...COULD
   ACCOMPANY PRE-FRONTAL DISCRETE STORMS THAT OCCUR. CONVECTIVE TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING COVERAGE AND
   INTENSIFICATION WHICH MAY REQUIRE A WW.
  
   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/02/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
 

[Buckeye05]

Man that cell near Marble Falls is looking pretty classic. Starting to get pretty close to the Austin metro as well,

[andyhb]

Definitely some very large hail with that cell, it's almost maxing out my VIL scale.

[DoctorMu]

Definitely some very large hail with that cell, it's almost maxing out my VIL scale.

 

 

It should be just S of downtown Austin heading to Bergstrom Apt

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/02/13 2249Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2230Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:2050Z  DMSP SSMIS:1415Z
.
LOCATION...CENTRAL AND SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...CONVECTIVE AREAS FOR TRAINING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN WESTERN GULF
HAS GENERATED A 2.0" MAX OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE CENTERED NEAR 26.5N
AND 93W.  NOW WHY MAY THAT BE A CONCERN FOR C TO EASTERN/SE TEXAS.
IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THIS HIGH MOISTURE IS GETTING STEERED INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST OF TEXAS AND MAY ALREADY BE SEEPING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST AND MATAGORDA COUNTY AND EXTENDING WEAKLY TO
FIRST COMPLEX AFFECTING FAYETTE INTO COLORADO COUNTY.  AND IF THAT IS
THE CASE AND PWAT INCREASING TO AT LEAST 1.6"-1.7" AS PER LATEST GOES
SOUNDER...THEN RAIN RATES OF CLOSE TO 2.0" PER HR MAY BE FALLING AT THE
FRONT END OF THE COMPLEX AND JUST BEHIND, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE A FEW
CELLS GOIGN OVER ONE SPOT IN THAT HR.  THIS FIRST COMPLEX HAS GENERATED
AT OUTFLOW THAT EXTENDS FROM FAYETTE TO BASTROP TO SECOND COMPEX NEAR
TRAVIS COUNTY.  SO QUITE CONCERNED ABOUT ANY TRAINING ALONG OUTFLOW
AND HIGHER PWAT MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BACK ALONG BOUNDARY TO HEIGHTEN
HEAVY RAIN BURSTS INTO FF PRODUCING AREAS TRAVIS TO
LAVACA/FAYETTE/COLORADO COUNTY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2245-0145Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...CONVECTION FROM FIRST COMPLEX PRODUCING VERY HVY RAIN
DRIFTING SLOWLY SE ACROSS LAVACA...FAYETTE...COLORADO COUNTY AND CONCERNED
OUTFLOW TRAINING BETWEEN TRAVIS AND THESE COUNTIES CAN PROVIDE SOME
TRAINING CELLS THAT COULD GIVE ISOLATED SPOTS THAT 3-5" IN SEVERAL HRS
AND HEIGHTEN FF THREAT.   SEE GRAPHIC FOR DELINEATION.
 

[Ed Lizard]

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0373
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80...
  
   VALID 022241Z - 030015Z
  
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80
   CONTINUES.
  
   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS WW 80.
   PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR AN INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.
  
   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL STORM OVER FAYETTE COUNTY CONTINUES
   TRACKING ESEWD AND MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF LAVACA AND COLORADO
   COUNTIES DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE OF
   CONCERN WITH THIS STORM AS IT ADVANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST ALONG A
   WNW/ESE-ORIENTED SUBTLE SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS/DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED WITHIN A WAA REGIME FARTHER
   ESE TOWARD THE COAST. THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF THE SUPERCELL IS IN
   QUESTION OWING TO POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPING
   CONVECTION.
  
   LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CINH IS NOTED PER A 21Z COLLEGE STATION
   SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A AND M UNIVERSITY. THIS COULD SUPPORT MORE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION/COLD POOL MERGERS...AND A
   CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITION TO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS
   AS OPPOSED TO SUPERCELLS. REGARDLESS...THIS 21Z SOUNDING ALSO
   REVEALS NOTABLE VERTICAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BOOSTING HODOGRAPH
   LENGTH...AS WINDS VEER FROM LIGHT/MODERATE ELY NEAR THE SFC TO
   MODERATE WLY IN THE MID LEVELS. HGX VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT 0-1-KM SRH
   HAS INCREASED TO OVER 200 M2/S2. AS SUCH...SOME CONDITIONAL THREAT
   FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY S OF A NW/SE-ELONGATED DIFFUSE
   FRONT EXTENDING FROM ACT TO THE COAST 35 SSW BPT. THIS THREAT WILL
   CONTINGENT UPON STORMS EXHIBITING PERSISTENT DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE
   MODES...AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO TORNADO
   WATCH.
  
   ..COHEN.. 04/02/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...
  
   LAT...LON   29109531 29119794 30529701 30529437 29109531

[icebreaker5221]

Looks like a pretty good bow echo just went through Ed country. 

[Srain]

Looks like a pretty good bow echo just went through Ed country. 

And Srain country as well. Getting pounded here in NW Harris County.

[Ed Lizard]

Looks like a pretty good bow echo just went through Ed country. 

 

Hoping for a sequel.  I will say, the free CRP and DFX radars (CRP is a dual pol upgrade, I think) bad timing to be down with a cell with a VIL of 70 is well Southwest of SAT/EWX.

[DoctorMu]

Hoping for a sequel.  I will say, the free CRP and DFX radars (CRP is a dual pol upgrade, I think) bad timing to be down with a cell with a VIL of 70 is well Southwest of SAT/EWX.

 

 

Round 2 is looking pretty juicy.  Nice bow heading toward the Gov. Mansion.  1.15 in in the backyard rain gauge here...and the grass actually appears green!  I enjoy those few weeks and April and October when chlorophyll is actually abundant without tons of 2% iron, high nitrogen fertilizer.

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Highly active night across the region with extensive hail damage reports in a corridor from Wharton to Fort Bend County to Galveston County.
 
Initial line of severe weather moved off the coast around midnight while a secondary line moved through the western into the central counties between 2-4am while weakening. Skies have rapidly cleared behind this activity, but main upper level system is still NW of the area and additional short waves are moving E from N MX toward SW TX. Radar is already showing development of storms from Sonora to Laredo as a result of returning moisture up the Rio Grande and short wave lift. Air mass locally has been heavily worked over and stabilized from all the overnight activity, but with clear skies and heating this morning we should begin to recovery and destabilize by early to mid afternoon. Cold pocket associated with upper level trough will nudge closer to the area helping to make the low level unstable especially with morning surface heating.
 
If the air mass can recover, additional storms may develop this afternoon especially given any short wave moving out of MX helping to foster lift. With radar trends along the Rio Grande supporting this thinking currently. Cold mid-level temperatures will support a hail threat with storms this afternoon. Short term meso models are trying to develop additional rainfall this morning over the region, but this seems somewhat unlikely given the state of the air mass. Do think there is the potential for some redevelopment this afternoon into the evening hours as the air mass recovers.
 
Will re-evaluate later this morning/early this afternoon as trends establish.

Storm reports will be released later this morning.  

 

[Ed Lizard]

HRRR not optimistic, but it is already missing the scattered activity in the EWX CWA, so not getting me down.  Ditto 6Z NAM and GFS.  Cap looks about non-existent on new 12Z CRP and LCH soundings.  If the low clouds burn off, and without a cap preventing mixing, I think they might...  well, one quarter full glass optimistic on fun-derstorms, and new SWODY1 has HGX area along and West of I-45 just inside >5% hail w/I 25 miles area.

And that activity is behind the front, with temps and dewpoints in upper 40s to mid 50sF.  5 to 10 knot 850 mb winds shouldn't scour the upper 50s dewpoints out, I would think.

[Ed Lizard]

I'm not the only one who thinks ringing Texas with radiosonde sites with the vast interior empty is sometimes a bad thing...

 

 

...CNTRL/S TX THIS AFTN/EVE...
   SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT LOBE OF ASCENT ROUNDING BASE OF HI
   PLNS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESE ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND E TX THROUGH
   THE DAY. LARGE RAOB DATA-VOID MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE
   DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORT. AMPLE CLOUD
   LAYER SHEAR WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
   STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. WITH AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS THAT A
   SIZABLE EML WILL REMAIN PRESENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN THIRD OF
   TX...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL IN ANY LONGER-LIVED
   STORMS. THIS THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST FROM THE SERN PART OF THE
   HILL COUNTRY E TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX CSTL PLN...AND MAY CONSIST OF
   MULTIPLE SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS.

[Srain]

E-mail from Jeff:

 

Active night across the region.

 

Severe:
 
15 WSW Eagle Lake, Colorado: 1.75 inch hail
 
Wharton, Wharton: 1.0 in hail in downtown Wharton
 
3 E Wharton, Wharton: 1.50 inch hail
 
Needville, Fort Bend: 1.75 inch hail
 
4 SSE Boling, Wharton: 1.75 inch hail
 
Manvel, Brazoria: Quarter size hail along Hwy 6 between Manvel and Fresno
 
Hitchcock, Galveston: ***3.50 inch hail*** 15-20 minutes of softball to baseball size hail with extreme hail damage on the west and central parts of the city. Numerous windows broken in many homes, significant damage to Midway church, fire station, 2 mobile home parks, and traffic signals. 7 out of 11 police cars with windows and windshieds shattered
 
Santa Fe, Galveston: Golf ball to tennis ball size hail across the city. 3.17 inches of rainfall also
 
Aldine, Harris: tree down from strong winds

The Woodlands, Montgomery: lightning strike to apartment complex resulting in extensive damage.
 
Rainfall:

Smithville: 5.03
LaGrange: 3.10
 
CoCoRaHS Reports:
 
9 E Smithville: 6.30
0.3 WSW Santa Fe: 2.74
4.8 WNW Huntsville: 2.92
Hallettsville: 2.64
1.9 NNE Sealy: 2.33
4.7 E LaGrange: 2.58
Sugar Land: 1.66
Bacliff: 1.59
Webster: 2.08
West University Place: 2.03
13.5 SE Hallettsville: 2.98
4 N Montgomery: 1.92
Livingston: 4.15
10 W Livingston: 3.65
11.5 WSW Huntsville: 2.40
3.1 NE Wharton: 2.50
1.4 ESE Wharton: 1.43
6.0 SE Katy: 2.03
.6 NNE Schulenburg: 4.27
1.4 W Dickinson: 2.25
2.5 NE Friendswood: 2.20
1.4 W The Woodlands: 2.18
8.4 W Livingston: 3.39
2.6 SSW Livingston: 3.69
 
Out of 132 gage stations that collect rainfall in Harris County, 66 recorded equal to or greater than 1.0 inch of rainfall in 15 minutes.
 
Wharton Hail:

Galveston County Hail Images:

 

 

 

[patrick7032]

I'm not the only one who thinks ringing Texas with radiosonde sites with the vast interior empty is sometimes a bad thing...

What discussion was this from Ed? I completely agree with it. For this past event I would have loved for our office to have been a raob site, we were in perfect position...and if you look at the UA sites we'd fill a void. Granted Del Rio is somewhat near us to the south...but we'd fill the void in the west central part of the state. It brings up an interesting question...if you had enough money to add only one UA site in Texas...where would you place it?

[My Weather Today]

What discussion was this from Ed? I completely agree with it. For this past event I would have loved for our office to have been a raob site, we were in perfect position...and if you look at the UA sites we'd fill a void. Granted Del Rio is somewhat near us to the south...but we'd fill the void in the west central part of the state. It brings up an interesting question...if you had enough money to add only one UA site in Texas...where would you place it?

I think I read that in the SPC Day 1 discussion from Wednesday.

[Ed Lizard]

What discussion was this from Ed? I completely agree with it. For this past event I would have loved for our office to have been a raob site, we were in perfect position...and if you look at the UA sites we'd fill a void. Granted Del Rio is somewhat near us to the south...but we'd fill the void in the west central part of the state. It brings up an interesting question...if you had enough money to add only one UA site in Texas...where would you place it?

 

 

SPC SWODY1

 

I think EWX, as I think MAF covers SJT to a degree, but SJT would better sample upstream from DFW.  I'd like a balloon IMBY (HGX) but that would be close to LCH.  It amazes me how often we're capped when LCH isn't, as close as they are.