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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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DFWWeather

DFWWeather

Posted
Posted

Wow - the models keep flip flopping and back and fourth. Now the 12z GFS has all but lost any second Arctic surge practically for Sunday with very little in the way of precipitation. However, the 12z ECMWF still has the Arctic surge and much more optimistic look to QPF with sleet and snow in the mix for DFW. This morning it was the opposite. Think that flurries will be the reality if anything can overcome the very dry air being advected in with the next Arctic surge.

 

In the longer term, it does appear as though a significant warming trend will take place for much of Texas beginning next Wednesday heading into Thanksgiving week. Looks like we will even get up above normal temperature wise.

 

Latest 12z text data from ECMWF has DFW with H85 temps at -9°C. Wow, really? Temps should crater tonight if true with very light winds and the Arctic high pressing on us. Current forecasted low by NWS of 25°F may be too warm. Though clouds may be problematic. If clouds were to clear, then I wouldn't be surprised if lows ended up in the 20°F to 22°F range in the heart of the Metroplex with some people dropping to the teens around DFW. That's getting us down into record territory! PS - Noticed MOS - MAV/MET/NAM 12z guidance numbers catching on...

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

No official freeze at IAH, but it came close with a 34F reading before the clouds moved back in. I had a couple of hours at 32F here in NW Harris County. Clouds and slow warming today as the next upper air disturbance moves in from the W and up glide over the shallow cold at the surface weakens as the Arctic high shifts further E. Saturday looks like a heat wave as temperatures warm further in response to the Coastal Low/trough organizing along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast Saturday night. We may see some storms fire over the Coastal waters and into Beaumont/Lake Charles Saturday night into early Sunday. A strong upper air disturbance drops S from  Canada on Saturday and that feature will drive another sharp cold front across Texas during the day on Sunday. There is still some disagreement in the computer guidance with a fast moving disturbance Sunday night across Texas. The Euro is a bit stronger and further S into Texas while the GFS and Canadian models are further N into the Southern Plains and have little if any moisture or lift associated with this short wave trough. Monday night still looks very cold, but I am cautious since the sub tropical jet still looks noisy and I'm not confident we will clear out just like what happened over night. We will see.

 

 

 

 

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Srain

Srain

Posted
Posted

Morning briefing from Jeff:

 

Cold arctic air mass remains in place over the region this morning with another colder surge heading for the US border out of Canada.

 

Coastal trough and surface low pressure system starting to take shape along the lower TX coast will bring an active 36 hours to the region.

 

Temperatures this morning running a solid 10 degrees above Friday morning values. Freeze line Friday morning ran roughly along US 59 north of Houston to FM 2920 to Waller then WSW to Columbus. Mid level cloud deck hampered central and coastal counties freezing conditions Friday morning…but we will all have another shot next week. Surface arctic dome is attempting to modify, but increasing ENE to NE winds will help lock in the cold air today. Clouds have never really cleared out much since last Tuesday and will only increase with thickening and lowering today as moisture is pulled northward over the surface cold pool. Think surface dry layer will take much of today to saturate before rainfall becomes a concern…likely not until this evening. Patchy fog and some drizzle may develop by mid to late afternoon as the surface warm front moves toward the coast.

 

Strong short wave will help to energize the coastal low tonight and bring it near/just inland over the upper TX coast. Warm front progresses toward the coast and possibly inland as far as US 59 overnight into Sunday with significantly warmer temperatures (60’s) south of that boundary, in fact there may be a fairly impressive temperature gradient across the area early Sunday. Low level shear values are maximized late tonight into early Sunday along and south of US 59 and if any of the elevated storms can work toward the surface and take advantage of the strong low level shear an isolated severe storm will be possible. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

 

Widespread rain will blanket much of the area from late tonight through most of Sunday with heavy rainfall certainly possible. Rainfall amounts have been increased in the past 24 hours and now suggest an average of 1-3 inches is possible across the region with the heaviest rain likely near and south of the warm frontal boundary.

 

Secondary arctic surge with temperatures over NW Canada currently well below zero will roar southward behind this storm system and off the TX coast late Sunday. Very strong cold air advection will result in tumbling temperatures by Sunday evening likely from the 50’s and 60’s into the 30’s and 40’s with strong winds. Gale Watch is in effect for the Gulf waters and a Gale Warning will likely be needed as very strong NW winds develop under the building arctic high and models showing 925mb winds of 40-45kts Sunday night over the coastal bend into the Gulf waters. A third weaker short wave will move across mainly the northern part of the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models are a little more aggressive with the onset and intensity of the cold air advection which brings P-type into question for Sunday afternoon and evening mainly across north TX. Expect a rain/snow line to develop and move southward Sunday afternoon as the air column cools. A mixture of might rain/flurries may extend as far south as the Hill Country Sunday evening. Current thinking is that the profiles over SE TX will still be too warm for any P-type mixture Sunday night as the rain ends.

 

If clouds can clear out Monday then a widespread freeze is likely by Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. As we saw yesterday however cloud cover will play havoc with the overnight lows.

 

A sustained warming tend looks likely by the end of next week with southerly flow returning along with clouds and rain chances. In fact temperatures may warm into the lower 70’s by next Friday as this arctic outbreak is dislodged.   

 

 

 

 

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1900hurricane

1900hurricane

Posted
Posted

SPC upgraded the immediate upper Texas coast to a marginal risk for tornadoes. I'd say it's a good call with the NAM being as aggressive as it is with airmass modification immediately south of the warm front. CAPE may only make it to a skinny ~500 J/kg overnight, but if surface-based updrafts can become established, helicities are quite impressive.

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aggiegeog

aggiegeog

Posted
Posted

Upper 30s and drizzle here. Snow flying with temps in the teens in the Panhandle and the front is moving through Northwest Texas with temps behind it falling below freezing quickly. The models appear to be trending wetter so it looks like much of the northern half of the state will see flakes over the next 24 hours with 3"+ in the northwest quarter of the state.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

Upper 30s and drizzle here. Snow flying with temps in the teens in the Panhandle and the front is moving through Northwest Texas with temps behind it falling below freezing quickly. The models appear to be trending wetter so it looks like much of the northern half of the state will see flakes over the next 24 hours with 3"+ in the northwest quarter of the state.

 

Last few runs of the HRRR is now showing a band of snow moving across DFW and into East Texas during the evening hours. 

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Last few runs of the HRRR is now showing a band of snow moving across DFW and into East Texas during the evening hours. 

 

Yea, looks like maybe an extended period of light snow with a few enhanced bands moving through? We are down to 36 with returns still to our west.  I would be happy with flurries but am thinking maybe 1/2" here in Collin County.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

We are now getting some sleet mixing in up here just NE of the DFW area.

Nice! That lines up well with the upper level charts. Looks like the cold pocket aloft is just now starting to work it's way into the DFW area. Should see this cold air depth thicken over the next 1-2 hours. Any precip from here out, should be in the wintry form.

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ams30721us

ams30721us

Posted
Posted

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
607 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>120-129>134-141-170300-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-
SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-
607 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

...BAND OF LIGHT SNOW COULD PRODUCE SLICK SPOTS ON BRIDGES AND
ELEVATED SURFACES THIS EVENING...

A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
EAST ACROSS THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN A
QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH WILL LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA ROADS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS...PRIMARILY ON BRIDGES AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALREADY BEGINNING IN THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...AND SHOULD SPREAD EAST TO NEAR THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METRO AREA 7 TO 9 PM.

PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT...BUT PATCHY SLICK AREAS
MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT DUE TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
PLEASE KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES IN YOUR AREA THIS
EVENING.

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