Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Srain]

We're moving here too. Already did the house hunting and chose a new development north of the Woodlands. Yep, longer commute, but more of a rural feel. School system is smaller too. We interviewed several schools and decided on the Montgomery ISD. Most of the people on my soon to be new street have moved out of the Woodlands for various reasons. We felt it was overpriced for older houses and the high schools are huge. Our house should be finished end of April and plan to move the household when school is out in June.

Welcome to SE Texas as well, TeaysValleyWV!

[Srain]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

 

Big cold front that roared off the coast early Sunday has brought an unseasonably cold and dry air mass to the region.
 
High pressure over the central plains will continue to sink southward today with cold air advection ongoing. 850mb 0C line reaches near the coast by 600pm this evening and while the sun angle is increasingly high now and the days are longer…looks like we will struggle to reach the mid to upper 50’s.

Bigger concern is tonight with surface high pressure nearly overhead and a very dry air mass in place. Expecting near excellent cooling conditions under clear skies, light winds, and low dewpoints (20’s). Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on forecasted lows in the low to mid 30’s across much of the region. While this would typically not be of much concern, the fact that the spring green up is well underway and many have already planted sensitive vegetation brings importance to the forecasted low for Tuesday morning. Current thinking is that many areas outside of the urban heat cores will drop to near or slightly below freezing on Tuesday morning. Lows should range from 30-35 across most of the area. The duration of freezing/subfreezing temperatures will be around 1-3 hours for most areas, although a few northern counties could see the duration closer to 3-5 hours. Sensitive vegetation should be protected!
 
Still cold on Tuesday as NE winds and high pressure remain in control. Surface high should be pulling east of the region overnight Tuesday and expect very weak onshore winds to return to the area early Wednesday morning. This may stop a widespread secondary freeze for Wednesday morning. Guidance is currently suggesting lows in the upper 30’s and this seems reasonable, but areas NE of a line from Liberty to Huntsville could drop to near freezing again Wednesday morning.
 
Surface high pressure moves eastward on Wednesday with sustained onshore flow developing across the region. Upper level flow begins to transition toward a large scale trough over the SW US which brings an extended period of SW upper level flow into TX. Increasing SE winds at the surface will pump Gulf moisture into the state and this will combine with periodic disturbances aloft to produce the potential for a few rounds of showers/thunderstorms from Friday-next weekend. Current thinking is that most activity may be just north of SE TX across N TX into OK where some severe weather appears at least possible. Southward we will have to deal with the ever present capping concerns which so far this year has shut down rainfall across the southern ½ of the state. Still plenty of time to watch, but we are once again in need of rainfall as 2013 is starting to play out much like the start of the great drought of 2011. Most of the area is now back into Moderate to Severe Drought with even Extreme Drought showing up across nearly all of Washington County. This has been a significant degradation over the past few weeks due to the overall lack of wetting rainfall.  

[CranberryWX]

Welcome to SE Texas as well, TeaysValleyWV!

Thank you! I'm looking forward to setting up my weather station apparatus in the new back yard to record this famous heat and humidity....and starting a new website.

[DoctorMu]

We may be spared tonight, but tomorrow night may well be a different story with that cold High right over us.

 

 

Conroe and Hearne both hit freezing last night.  Conroe forecast for 29° tonight

[Srain]

Conroe and Hearne both hit freezing last night.  Conroe forecast for 29° tonight

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

322 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF

A MADISONVILLE TO CONROE TO CLEVELAND LINE...

.CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL COMBINE TO

PRODUCE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

TEXAS. LOW TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE

UPPER 20S IN THE WARNING AREA.

TXZ163-164-176>179-198-199-261300-

/O.NEW.KHGX.FZ.W.0001.130326T0500Z-130326T1300Z/

GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...

CROCKETT...GROVETON...HUNTSVILLE...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...

NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WILLIS

322 PM CDT MON MAR 25 2013

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM

CDT TUESDAY.

* EVENT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO

  TUESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S BY MIDNIGHT

  AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY SUNRISE.

* IMPACT...THE COLD TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER

  PLANTS AND VEGETATION THAT MAY HAVE BEEN PLANTED DURING SOME

  EARLIER WARM WEATHER.

 

[patrick7032]

Another cold night before the warming trend begins tomorrow.

[Srain]

A slow warming trend begins today and will continue in earnest tomorrow as a split zonal flow develops and the cold high pressure that brought our chilly temps slides off to the E. Easterly winds will turn SE off the Gulf and bring higher dew points and more humidity as the last week of March ends. There appears to a be a disturbance sliding across N Mexico as the long Easter weekend nears that may bring an increase of showers/storms chances Saturday into Sunday. The first few days of April look to offer a better chance of rainfall with the possibility of increased showers and storms, some possibly severe as a upper low moves inland into California and takes a more suppressed track and works with a developing dry line across W Texas. The first couple of days of April could be rather stormy for our Region and may offer the best chance we’ve seen in a long time for any meaningful rainfall. Fingers Crossed!

[patrick7032]

Finally the GFS is in closer agreement to the euro...but obviously with it being several days out...a lot can obviously change. Even so...seeing this is the "closest" the two models have been so far...I attached 8 images (figured since the thread is slow right now it'll be ok...if anyone doesn't want this many let me know)...covering 3 days for Dyess AFB in Abilene, TX. and the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

[Ed Lizard]

Bad March for Spring Breakers.  Dry, but awfully chilly at the beach, although St. Patrick's Day weekend wasn't too cold.

 

NO obvious signs of fun-derstorms anytime soon in my quadrant of Texas.

[patrick7032]

Hopefully some folks will at least get some rain out of this. In my area we're already around 50% of normal rainfall so far. SPC did mention a possible upgrade to Slight Risk in later outlooks...well see what the new day two says.

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1252 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

 

POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE   HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING WHERE THE   CAP SHOULD WEAKEN IN VICINITY OF OR JUST BEHIND THE DRYLINE.   STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN MOIST WARM SECTOR INCREASES   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT   THROUGH WRN TX. BEST CHANCE FOR MORE THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE MAY   EXIST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF WRN TX WHERE DEEPER   ASCENT ATTENDING WITH AN EWD ADVANCING IMPULSE MAY OVERTAKE THE   DRYLINE. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND   MLCAPE TO 1500 J/KG ALONG WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT   A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL   INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS UPDATE...BUT AN UPGRADE TO   SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND NRN   PARTS OF WRN TX IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

 

 

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0230 AM CDT THU MAR 28 2013

 

...CNTRL KS THROUGH OK AND NWRN TX REGIONS...      CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY WITHIN A BROAD   ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION FROM PORTIONS OF THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO   THE LOWER-MID VALLEY REGIONS AND SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY. IN WAKE   OF MORNING ACTIVITY...LOW-MID 50S DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO   THE BROAD WARM SECTOR. STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED FROM   THE HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND OK INTO WRN/CNTRL KS...LIKELY BOOSTING   MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO   REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING   COLD FRONT FROM KS SWWD INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. OTHER STORMS   MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER NWRN TX. THE ACTIVITY WILL   THEN SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING. FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS   FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK. THIS REGION WILL RESIDE JUST SOUTH   OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM   TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY   BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE WITH AT LEAST MARGINAL   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE EVOLUTION. ISOLATED LARGE   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM LATE   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

[patrick7032]

Could be a fun couple days in the panhandle...and southeastern Kansas south into northern Texas.
Here are some soundings for Friday and Saturday for...Childress, Oklahoma City, Wichita Falls, Abilene, and San Angelo. Don't see -7 or lower Showwalter indicies and sweats above 600 often. With a fat cape density above the -20C isotherm...could be some supercells producing some VERY LARGE hail (if storms form). 0-6km shear of 40-50kts both days.

[Ed Lizard]

Unusually cold weather for Spring coming.  How depressing, and no signs of any drought relief in my part of Texas.

[Srain]

The ensemble mean suggest next week may be a bit more active along the slow moving trough axis as a series of 5H disturbances move E off the Pacific into California into Texas in a bit more suppressed fashion. Where the modified Polar boundary sets up over the Southern Plains as well as capping issues E of the dry line appear to be the main hindering factor. The guidance appears to be struggling with the strength of the last upper low/trough that traverses across the Region early/mid next week. Hopefully we can benefit from the suppressed track as most of the Region is getting very close to an extreme drought situation once again.

 

 

 

[patrick7032]

Looks like there could be some sun in my area and points north tonday and tomorrow. The first 30% risk of the year for parts of my area tonight...and the first sig 30% of the season for the Red River Valley area. Tor and wind threat is also there. Work tonight...but off tomorrow...so it looks like I might be heading to the Wichita Falls area for tomm...

 

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1051 AM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

 

 ...SRN PLNS TODAY INTO TNGT...   WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP FAIRLY STOUT EML CAP LIKELY WILL   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS OF HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ABOVE   THE CAP INTO TNGT...BOTH IN DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR OVER OK AND NW   TX...AND ATOP DEVELOPING SFC WARM/STNRY FRONT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL   OZARKS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. BUT   MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE CAP. COUPLED WITH   RELATIVELY MODEST SHEAR...DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD REMAIN TOO   LIMITED TO POSE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WEATHER.      A SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK FOR SVR STORMS...MAINLY WITH HAIL BUT ALSO   POSSIBLY WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MAY EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTN INTO   TNGT OVER PARTS OF WRN AND NW TX AND ADJACENT WRN/SRN OK. IN THIS   REGION...FAVORABLY-TIMED APPROACH OF NM UPR IMPULSE WITH MAX SFC   HEATING MAY YIELD A SUFFICIENT COMBINATION OF DESTABILIZATION AND   ASCENT TO PROMOTE STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL   MOISTURE RETURN.      WHILE WLY DEEP SHEAR ACROSS REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MODEST   /30-35 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND PRESENCE   OF DEEP EML/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD NUMEROUS STORMS   WITH SVR HAIL AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. CONTINUED EWD   MOTION OF UPR IMPULSE AND EXPECTED AMALGAMATION OF STORM-GENERATED   COLD POOLS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING   STORM CLUSTERS OVER NW TX AND OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE   ADDITIONAL SVR HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND INTO LATER TNGT...BEFORE   DIURNAL COOLING WEAKENS UPDRAFT STRENGTH.

 

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1229 PM CDT FRI MAR 29 2013

 

 ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...   NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS FROM   TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD INTO   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY. AT THE SFC ON SATURDAY...A   LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO   WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO ERN KS AND NW MO BY AFTERNOON.   THE SRN PART OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OK SWWD INTO WEST TX IS   EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD. THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY   SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD   NEAR THE SFC LOW IN THE MID-MO VALLEY WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION   TAKING PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A CAPPING   INVERSION WEAKENS. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT   A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY   OF SRN OK AND NORTH TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW   SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED.      FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z SHOW SFC   DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN SE KS TO THE LOWER 60S F   AROUND WICHITA FALLS TX. MLCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 1500 TO   2000 J/KG IN SE KS AND NE OK WITH HIGHER VALUES OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG   POSSIBLE SWWD INTO SW OK AND NORTH TX. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR   VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 KT IN NE OK TO AROUND 40   KT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB   LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL   DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THE STEEP   LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL   WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF STRONG   INSTABILITY IS REALIZED IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A POTENTIAL FOR   TORNADOES MAY ALSO DEVELOP BUT THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW BELOW 850 MB   COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. IF THE FAVORED MODE BECOMES LINEAR   DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THEN AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY   ALSO DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD   ACROSS THE OZARKS EXTENDING SWWD INTO CNTRL TX BUT THE SEVERE THREAT   SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS DURING   THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

[Ed Lizard]

 

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER PARTS OF THE TX S PLNS...THE TX LOW ROLLING PLNS...AND NW TX AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NM UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES ESEWD. SOME STORMS MAY ARISE WITHIN EXISTING ACCAS/WAA FIELD DOWNSTREAM FROM NM SYSTEM...WHILE OTHERS ARISE ALONG DIFFUSE DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS NOW EDGING E TOWARD THE LBB AREA. FARTHER NE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE SRN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK. WHILE WNWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST /AROUND 35 KTS/...UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD-LAYER FLOW AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN PERSISTENT LOW-LVL MOISTURE INFLOW. AND...GIVEN EXPECTED CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION...CONSOLIDATION OF STORM COLD POOLS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCSS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND/HAIL INTO TNGT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29020. ...CORFIDI

  

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

sorry for the off-topic post, but does anyone know what happened to khou forum ?

 

Steve says it is being migrated.  Taking some time, I guess.

[Srain]

sorry for the off-topic post, but does anyone know what happened to khou forum ?

It will be back soon. A new Cloud based dedicated server went online Wednesday. KHOU spent a lot of time and $$$ with upgrades and back end data backup and rebuilding the database. It is now in the hands of Belo Corp Dallas for final checks and redirecting DNS information from their servers to the new dedicated server. Hopefully it will be up and running in the next few days after propagating all data to that new server. The weather is sort of quiet and this was part of the major upgrade planned for the KHOU board.

[patrick7032]

Here a few images. The CB with the housing is from near Lubbock...the picture with the Doppler radar is from my office. That was a severe warned cell that produced numerous reports of golf ball hail...and pea size hail to a depth of 4-6 inches...with drifts...and over 2 inches of rain in an hour. The associated radar image is of the same cell about 20 minutes after I had taken the picture of the CB.

[Indystorm]

Nice supercells evolving this Sat. afternoon in Louisiana, one of which is tornado warned.  SE KS becoming active and in a svr box and expect action to begin in OK and north central TX later today.

[Ed Lizard]

We need the rain, even a quarter inch, and I didn't even notice a -6 LI

 

IMBY just South of highest fun index.

[bubba hotep]

Nice batch of storms Friday night / Saturday morning washed out our morning soccer games and now we've got another round pushing through this morning with some pea size hail. 

[Ed Lizard]

Some of the outdoors Sunrise services North and East of DFW may have been moved indoors

[Srain]

E-mail from Jeff:

 

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

 

Strong short wave passing northeast of TX this morning is pushing a cool front with a well-defined squall line/MCS over NE TX/W LA currently SSE over our NE counties. Strong surface heating over SE TX and C TX is resulting in an increasingly unstable air mass south of the squall line/cool front and visible images are starting to show development of towering cumulus clouds over C TX. High resolution short term models erupt convection in the next 1-2 hours along the southward moving boundary from C TX into SE TX. Favorable instability and shear should support storms growing upscale into a ESE moving MCS/squall line into the evening hours. Capping increases toward the coast, so the southern extent of the severe threat and thunderstorms is questionable, but areas north of I-10 do stand to see a decent shot at strong to severe storms this afternoon.

 

Main threats will be damaging winds to 60-70mph especially near bowing segments in the line and large hail.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for parts of the area shortly should current meso scale trends continue.

 

[Ed Lizard]

E-mail from Jeff:

 

Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

 

Strong short wave passing northeast of TX this morning is pushing a cool front with a well-defined squall line/MCS over NE TX/W LA currently SSE over our NE counties. Strong surface heating over SE TX and C TX is resulting in an increasingly unstable air mass south of the squall line/cool front and visible images are starting to show development of towering cumulus clouds over C TX. High resolution short term models erupt convection in the next 1-2 hours along the southward moving boundary from C TX into SE TX. Favorable instability and shear should support storms growing upscale into a ESE moving MCS/squall line into the evening hours. Capping increases toward the coast, so the southern extent of the severe threat and thunderstorms is questionable, but areas north of I-10 do stand to see a decent shot at strong to severe storms this afternoon.

 

Main threats will be damaging winds to 60-70mph especially near bowing segments in the line and large hail.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for parts of the area shortly should current meso scale trends continue.

 

 

Boundaries galore on visible imagery.  However, I always hate it when SPC in coordination with HGX specifically trims Harris County out of a watch, because they usually know what they are doing...

[DoctorMu]

Boundaries galore on visible imagery.  However, I always hate it when SPC in coordination with HGX specifically trims Harris County out of a watch, because they usually know what they are doing...

 

 

 

Look at that  ***  hole.  The friggin' AggieDome cap is exerting itself early in the season - hope this is not an omen of a dry Spring & summer...

 

 

There should be a pretty good boundary forming soon south of the AggieDome, from Brenham into NW Harris and heading into town...

[Srain]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0354
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX AND MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 311800Z - 311900Z
  
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
  
   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS
   THIS AFTERNOON. PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND E TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
   LIKELY WW.
  
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE
   OVER THE PAST FEW HRS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE MOVING
   ACROSS CNTRL TX. THIS IS OCCURRING ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF A SWD
   MOVING COLD FRONT...AND STORMS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN PRIMARILY ROOTED
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WITH FURTHER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   EXPECTED TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG ALONG/S OF THE
   COLD FRONT...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SFC-BASED. DESPITE A RELATIVE
   WEAKNESS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW /PER REGIONAL VWP DATA/...MIDLEVEL WLYS
   WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG /E.G. 30-40 KTS/ TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES...AND POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION /GIVEN
   BOUNDARY-PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR/ INTO A
   CLUSTER OR FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY DISCRETE STORMS
   THAT MAY DEVELOP.
  
   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 03/31/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

[Srain]

[Chinook]

Looks like the Elite 8 and bad weather have (sort of) collided today.

[Srain]

[Ed Lizard]

Look at that  ***  hole.  The friggin' AggieDome cap is exerting itself early in the season - hope this is not an omen of a dry Spring & summer...

 

 

There should be a pretty good boundary forming soon south of the AggieDome, from Brenham into NW Harris and heading into town...

 

Not completely dry, but my house was a local relative min...  I predicted that to my wife hours ago we get either nothing, or at least less than almost anywhere else in the immediate area just past Noon, without using models.