Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[1900hurricane]

HGX has been alluding to some heavy rainfall potential lately but have been unsure of the focus. Well, looks like the outflow boundary between KCLL and I 35 might be what they were looking for.

 

[DoctorMu]

^a little entraining going on over us.  Impressive convergence as the line was forming about 7 pm.

 

Another 2 in+ IMBY so far.  Could be an additional inch or more as the evening moves on.

 

Update: Flash Flood Warning issued until 11:30 pm in Brazos Co

[DoctorMu]

updated total:  4.6 in for the day IMBY.  Very nice for July.  More on the way.

[Chinook]

Local storm report: 5.78" near Austin TX. Ouch! Hope everybody is OK.

[DoctorMu]

Winds out of the North @ 10 mph.

 

With overcast skies we might not hit 80°F in July!

[Portastorm]

Local storm report: 5.78" near Austin TX. Ouch! Hope everybody is OK.

Some portions of the metro area came close to 6".  We had some urban street flooding but nothing too disastrous, thankfully. We're all just amazed to be getting rain in mid July and temperatures in the mid 70s.

[DoctorMu]

Record low max in CLL yesterday at 79°F.  Today peaked at only 84° with a light NE breeze.  Incredible for July.

[DoctorMu]

Record low of 69°F set last night in CLL.

[DoctorMu]

Cold front on the fairly distant horizon on the GFS that could trigger showers - next Wed - Saturday time frame.

 

[DoctorMu]

Another July cold front!  There's more welcome relief on the way of precip. as the week progresses as last week's GFS prediction holds firm.  Remarkable.

 

 

 

 

 

[Srain]

Today could be a rather active day extending into tomorrow and the weekend as the frontal boundary sags S into a rich tropical airmass with PW's near 2.3. CAPE is somewhat impressive for this time of year near 3000 suggesting downbursts with heavy rainfall may be possible. I would keep an eye out from the Hill Country this afternoon extending S and E into Houston and the Beaumont area as well as SW Louisiana for some rather impressive rainfall totals into tomorrow and Saturday. Flash Flood Warnings are up this morning NE of the Metroplex and may be need later this morning across the Ark-La-Tex Region into Shreveport. Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Another rare July cool front heading for the region this morning with the threat for excessive rainfall increasing late today into early Friday.

 

Weak cool front was located across N TX this morning with a pre-frontal trough located near a Austin to Huntsville line. Fairly widespread development of thunderstorms over N TX overnight has resulted in some flooding due to cell training and slow storm motions. Front will sag southward today and move into SE TX late this afternoon. Surface heating will produce an unstable air mass by early afternoon and expect thunderstorms to develop starting as early as noon in some areas (especially north and east) initially along the seabreeze and outflow boundaries from previous storms and then along the front itself.

 

Meso and global models are in fair agreement on a band or line of thunderstorms developing from near Centerville to Austin early this evening and sagging southward to near US 59 by midnight. Air mass this afternoon becomes extremely moist with PWS pushing 2.0-2.3 inches and nearly a saturated profile through much of the column suggesting very efficient rainfall production. Front and storms appears to really slow in the midnight to 600am time period between I-10 and the coast and this is the location where we could get into some flooding problems overnight. Extremely high moisture levels will produce very high hourly rainfall rates of 2-3 inches or greater. Meso model depiction of cell training across the southern half of the region tonight does raise some concern, but it is impossible to determine where this may happen at this point. Activity will become highly meso scale driven on outflow boundaries and past experience with such events tends to focus the heavy rainfall a bit southward from where the actual frontal boundary may lie…in this case closer to the coast.

 

Models are not overly confident on where the actual front will stall Friday into the weekend with some offshore and others near the coast or just inland. Think the boundary will be close enough to continue rain chances especially near the coast for much of the weekend and this could also pile totals up in these areas. Luckily the areas have missed out on the past few rain events and could stand several inches before getting into flooding problems.

 

Upper level pattern shears out the upper trough along the Gulf coast next week leaving a pronounced weakness in the height field suggesting daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze front.  

 

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0236
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
732 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN OK/EASTERN TX/WESTERN LA...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 311132Z - 311502Z

SUMMARY...A SLOW-MOVING SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
FOCUS FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH HOURLY RATES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES. CONVECTION REGENERATING ALONG THE RED RIVER HAS
BECOME A NEW FOCUS FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH WARNINGS BEING ISSUED
BY THE LOCAL WFOS. EXPECT THIS THREAT TO PERSIST THROUGH ~15Z.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SLOW MOVING
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE RED RIVER. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
IGNITING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY WITH WITH
REGENERATION OCCURRING IN A REGION OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
BASED ON THE 11Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. RATHER IMPRESSIVE 850-MB
INFLOW WAS NOTED FROM THE KFWS WSR-88D WITH VAD WIND PROFILES
SHOWING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE
STORM-SCALE ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO VEER AND DIMINISH
AS THE SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY CARRY
THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL TX WITH THE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE.

THE 10Z HRRR THUS FAR HAS HANDLED THE ONGOING ACTIVITY THE BEST
WITH EVEN HINTS AT THE REGENERATING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE RED
RIVER. IT AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO OF MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEAST TX FOR 2 TO 3 MORE HOURS SO THIS MPD ISSUANCE
WILL ONLY BE ISSUED THROUGH 15Z AT THE LATEST.



RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
 

[Quixotic1]

Had quite an electrical storm last night.  Long, loud and continuous........

 

[DoctorMu]

SW igniting over College Station.  Could be quite a show as it sags south.

 

Light the fuse.

 

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/31/14 2305Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z  JS
.
LOCATION...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MESOANALYSIS AND TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT OVER SE TX.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2300-0600Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AT THIS TIME, DESPITE PRONOUNCED IR/VIS SIGNATURE
WITH PATCH OF CONVECTION OVER E CENT TX, PROPAGATION HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO OFFSET ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
POTENTIAL SIGNALS FOR ACTIVITY TO SLOW DOWN LATER THIS EVENING ALLOWING
FOR UPWIND REDEVELOPMENT AND PERIOD OF CELL TRAINING TO OCCUR. CURRENT
ANALYSIS AND GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL MORE SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY/CAPE
RESIDING TO THE S AND SW OF THE PRESENT ACTIVITY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING IN THE MID TO HIGH 70'S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN
EXCESS OF 2". ADDITIONALLY, VISIBLE ANIMATION AND SFC ANALYSIS INDICATE
GULF BREEZE MOVING NORTHWARD AND INLAND OVER SE TX/SW LA INTO ENVIRONMENT
OF VERY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW. OBJECTIVELY DERIVED ANALYSIS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT SFC BASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAX CENTERED NEAR AND TO THE S
OF THE CURRENT AREA OF CONVECTION WITH MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS REGION FROM
ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN DECENT
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS/TRENDS, BELIEVE THERE IS AT LEAST
A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR THE CONVECTION TO SLOW DOWN ITS CURRENTLY STEADY
S-SE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND ENHANCE/CONGEAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH WHAT'S
LEFT OF INLAND MOVING GULF BREEZE. AS THIS OCCURS, CONFLUENT LLJ FROM THE
W AND S-SW INTO THE W TO S PERIPHERY OF THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPING COMPLEX
COMBINED WITH THE APPARENT RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY/CAPE COULD ALLOW
FOR A PERIOD OF REDEVELOPMENT/TRAINING/MERGING CELLS IN THE APPROXIMATE
REGION STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM BETWEEN HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION TO
CLOSER TO THE TX-LA BORDER PERHAPS IN THE VICINITY OF JASPER. MOISTURE
PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY GOOD ENOUGH FOR THIS TO QUICKLY TURN INTO A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT. AGAIN, LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.
 

[DoctorMu]

1.6 in IMBY this evening, and that's a whopping 7.3 in of rain for the month of July.  Astounding.

[Srain]

July Monthly Climate Report issued by HGX...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...JULY 2014 ENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL...

A SUM OF THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
SHOWS THAT THE MONTH OF JULY ENDED UP SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL EVENTS BROUGHT A MIX OF DRIER AND WETTER THAN 
NORMAL CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH ONLY FOUR OF THE CLIMATE SITES RECEIVED 
WETTER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL.

ONE UNUSUAL FACT FOR THE YEAR THROUGH JULY 31ST IS THAT NONE OF THE 
FOUR FIRST-ORDER CLIMATE SITES HAVE YET TO HIT THE 100 DEGREE MARK. 
HOW ODD IS THIS? FOR THE 30-YEAR PERIOD OF 1981 TO 2010...COLLEGE 
STATION NORMALLY REACHES 100 DEGREES BY JULY 21ST WITH THE AVERAGE 
NUMBER OF 100-DEGREE DAYS BEING 5.7 DAYS THROUGH JULY 31ST. THE CITY 
OF HOUSTON NORMALLY EXPERIENCES A 100 DEGREE DATE BY JULY 24TH...WITH 
THE AVERAGE BEING 1.8 THROUGH JULY 31ST.

EVEN THOUGH BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL WAS RECORDED AT MOST OF THE CLIMATE
SITES...HEAVIER RAINFALL FELL OVER COLLEGE STATION...HUNTSVILLE... 
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...AND LEAGUE CITY. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL 
DEPARTURES FOR THESE SITES RANGED FROM +0.53 TO +4.58 INCHES. DRIEST 
CONDITIONS WERE EXPERIENCED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY 
BETWEEN SUGAR LAND AND PALACIOS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE ENOUGH 
TO EASE MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OUT OF DROUGHT. HOWEVER...THE JULY 
31ST DROUGHT MONITOR REPORTED ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS 
BURLESON...NORTHERN AUSTIN...WESTERN COLORADO...MOST OF JACKSON...AND 
MOST OF MATAGORDA COUNTIES. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED 
NEAR MATAGORDA BAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN JACKSON AND WESTERN MATAGORDA 
COUNTIES.

THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF SOME HIGH AND LOW EXTREMES RECORDED AT 
THE FIRST- AND SECOND-ORDER CLIMATE SITES. NOTE SOME OF THESE ARE 
THE LAST DATE OF OCCURRENCE FOR EACH SITE. SEE THE TABLE FOLLOWING 
THIS LIST FOR MORE DETAILS.

- WARMEST DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE...88 AT IAH ON THE 28TH
                                      88 AT GLS ON THE 27TH
                                      88 AT PSX ON THE 31ST
- COOLEST DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE...76 AT CLL ON THE 18TH
                                      76 AT UTS ON THE 19TH
- COLDEST DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE...68 AT CXO ON THE 30TH
                                      68 AT UTS ON THE 20TH
- WARMEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE...99 AT IAH ON THE 28TH
- HIGHEST DAILY RAINFALL..............4.55 AT CLL ON THE 17TH

THE FOLLOWING TABLE GIVES INDIVIDUAL SITE TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL 
EXTREMES FOR THE MONTH MEASURED AT THE FIRST- AND SECOND-ORDER 
CLIMATE STATIONS...


       DAILY MAX    DAILY MIN      DAILY AVERAGE TEMP      MAX RNFALL
SITE   TMP DATES    TMP DATES    MAX DATES    MIN DATES    PCPN DATES

IAH    99   28      72   30**    88   28      79   19      3.97   31
GLS    94   29      75   19      88   27      81   19##    0.70   18
CLL    97   28*     69   20      87   27#     76   18      4.55   17
HOU    97   28      73    6      87   28#     81   19##    0.43   23
CXO    96   28      68   30**    86   28      77   19      0.74&  18
UTS    96   14*     68   20      87   14      76   19##    1.67   17
DWH    96   28*     71    4      87   21      79   19      1.14   31
SGR    98   28      71   11      87   27#     81    6##    0.91   24
LBX    95   29      69   12**    84   29#     80   11##    2.12   20
PSX    93   25*     71    4      88   31#     81   18##    1.00    4
LVJ    97   28      74   19**    87   29#     81   18      1.17   23
HGX    97   28      69    3      87   28      78   18      2.42   23

NOTES...THE LAST DATE OF OCCURRENCE IS NOTED IN THE TABLE. OTHER DATES
THAT TIED ARE AS FOLLOWS...
*  FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...
   CLL - 9TH...13TH...14TH...AND 27TH
   UTS - 9TH
   DWH - 21ST...25TH...AND 27TH
   PSX - 21ST

** FOR LOW TEMPERATURES...
   IAH - 4TH...6TH...11TH...AND 19TH
   CXO - 6TH AND 11TH
   LBX - 9TH AND 11TH
   LVJ - 2ND...3RD...6TH...9TH...11TH...AND 12TH

#  FOR MAX DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...
   CLL - 14TH
   HOU - 21ST AND 22ND
   SGR - 20TH AND 21ST
   LBX - 20TH...21ST...AND 22ND
   PSX - 21ST
   LVJ - 21ST AND 28TH

## FOR MIN DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...
   GLS - 18TH
   HOU - 6TH AND 18TH
   UTS - 18TH
   SGR - 5TH
   LBX - 6TH AND 9TH
   PSX - 6TH AND 10TH

&  FOR MAX RAINFALL
   CXO - 17TH


THE FOLLOWING TABLE LISTS THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL DATA 
FOR FIRST- AND SECOND-ORDER CLIMATE SITES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...


                           JULY 2014 DATA

        AVE     AVE     MONTHLY AVE        MONTHLY       YEAR-TO-DATE
SITE    HIGH    LOW     DAILY   DEP     RAIN     DEP     RAIN    DEP

IAH     93.1    74.3    83.7   -0.7     5.40    +1.61   26.65   -1.46
GLS     90.2    79.3    84.8   +0.3     1.08    -2.72   11.30  -15.49
CLL     92.8    73.6    83.2   -1.5     6.72    +4.58   22.36   -0.48
HOU     92.2    75.6    83.9   +0.1     1.26    -3.40   21.08   -8.96
CXO     91.3    71.5    81.4   -1.2     2.91    -0.52   26.05   +0.92
UTS     91.8    73.4    82.6   -1.5     4.40    +1.02   25.62   -0.36
DWH     92.5    74.0    83.2   +1.1     3.42    -0.42   25.77   -1.62
SGR     93.4    74.5    84.0   +0.4     2.68    -1.68   23.80   -3.60
LBX     90.9    72.3    81.6   -0.7     4.21    -0.35   18.37   -9.28
PSX     90.6    77.9    84.3   +0.3     1.75    -3.01    9.46  -15.32
LVJ     92.4    75.7    84.0   +1.0     3.00    -1.71   19.07   -9.68
HGX     91.2    74.7    82.9   +0.9     5.11    +0.53   22.28   -7.31

[DoctorMu]

An amazing year and July

 

 

August began with a whimper as well.  The high was 85°F on Friday and 82° yesterday.  Today should top out about 88°, account for three days in a row below 90° when we are often hitting the Century mark.  Enjoying it while it lasts!

[canderson]

I was visitng the parents in East Texas this weekend. Holy crap, Friday it was 76 with a cool breeze.

[DoctorMu]

Something possibly tropical brewing on the GFS on the 2 week fantasy window...

 

Not too strong, not too weak perhaps

 

 

[DoctorMu]

Potential action tomorrow evening in the widely scattered variety - yet another front!

 

 

[Srain]

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

Another rare summer cold front heading for the region.

 

Cool front currently located over S OK will progress southward today while the seabreeze moves northward. Expect thunderstorms to develop along both boundaries as daytime heating works on an unstable and moist air mass. Upstream frontal convection will sink southward toward the area this evening while seabreeze storms will move northward to I-10 and possibly Hwy 105. Forecast soundings this afternoon over our northern counties show a bit of dry air in the mid levels which may enhance the potential for wind damage in the stronger storms.

 

This evening into the overnight short term models show the frontal boundary and seabreeeze colliding somewhere in SE TX between roughly I-10 and a College Station to Huntsville line. Models really put the brakes on storm motions as this happens in a setup not all that different from the August 1^st storm event. PWS pool to near 2.2 inches tonight which suggest an excessive rainfall threat with any slow moving convection. Will have to watch trends very carefully this evening to see if another short fused flash flood event may develop over some part of the region.

 

Frontal boundary will sag to I-10 or even the coast on Tuesday with a significantly drier air mass moving into at least the northern parts of the area. Rare dewpoints in the 60’s and possibly even in the 50’s will make for overnight lows in the upper 60’s to near 70 across our northern set of counties. It is up for debate on how far south the dry air makes it into the region and this depends on where the front finally stalls. Past experience suggest the front will move a little future south than forecast given convection and outflows along the boundary…so I think it will clear the coast sometime late Tuesday. With the front south of the region…we should see a break in any thunderstorm development except for maybe the coast and offshore waters. The boundary begins to lift back northward on Wednesday and a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon appears possible as upper level ridging does not really assert itself over the region.  

 

[Srain]

Storms lined up across Texas and Louisiana this evening.

 

[bubba hotep]

I'm pretty much done with this summer! Anyone starting to ponder the coming winter?

[Quixotic1]

I'm pretty much done with this summer! Anyone starting to ponder the coming winter?

Yes indeedy. A weak El Niño, combined with a positive PNA, a rapidly dropping QBO and a possible low solar output has got me mystical. If current trends continue, it could be epic. 77-78 has my attention but 76-77 might be better. Would not rule out 63-64 either. Two epics and a wannabe.

[aggiegeog]

It appears that I touched the upper 50s this morning at my place in E TX. I too am excited for what looks like a cold and wet winter and we all know what that means.

[Srain]

The high resolution models have initiated the ongoing showers/storms across the Edwards Plateau and the Metroplex this morning. These higher resolution models also indicate the shear axis will allow a bit more widespread development later today across the Hill Country and SE Texas.

 

[bubba hotep]

If current trends continue, it could be epic.

Trying not get too amped up but lots of encouraging signals. I think temps will be a slam dunk but worried about precipitation. I've been on a lucky streak since '09/'10 in DC, my kids think that snow in the winter is a given! Lol

[bubba hotep]

The high resolution models have initiated the ongoing showers/storms across the Edwards Plateau and the Metroplex this morning. These higher resolution models also indicate the shear axis will allow a bit more widespread development later today across the Hill Country and SE Texas.

08172014 11Z HRRR cref_t5sfc_f10.png

I can confirm from DFW airport runway that storms are ongoing ugh! Argh!

[wxmx]

06z GFS wakes the tropical atlantic up in an interesting fashion.

[Srain]

The 06Z GFS is 'sniffing' an area of potential weak low pressure near the Lower/Middle Texas Coast and as we know, our Gulf Coast waters are very warm and favorable for developing a disturbance IF storms persists for any length of time beyond 24 hours. The NW Caribbean and Gulf are certainly conducive for tropical mischief over the next 15 or so days.