Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[1900hurricane]

Rainfall over N TX looks like it may be starting to take on characteristics of a Maddox Mesohigh event.

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0146
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1018 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 221418Z - 222018Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AS A COLD POOL BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND 850 HPA INFLOW
SLIGHTLY INCREASES. A FEW SPOTS COULD RECEIVE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MESOCYCLONE WHICH MOVED UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY 2-3 DAYS AGO IS
MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX, HELPING TO STREAM IN MOISTURE
ALOFT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACTS AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
GROWING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH COOLING TOPS. AT LOW-LEVELS, GULF
INFLOW IS SLOWLY INCREASING AS RECENT VAD WIND PROFILES HAVE
INCREASED TO 30 KTS AT 850 HPA, WHICH IS DOUBLE THE MEAN 850-400
HPA WIND FLOW, WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. CAPES NEARBY ARE 1000 J/KG, WITH UPSTREAM CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 2", NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR LATE JUNE. THESE INGREDIENTS REACH THE THRESHOLD FOR THE WET
MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.

THERMAL CONTRAST AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING, MAKING ITS EDGE AN
INCREASINGLY EFFECTIVE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIMILAR ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS PER THE 00Z ARW, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 850 HPA INFLOW
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON PER RECENT RAP RUNS. CORFIDI VECTORS
ARE LIGHT AND INDICATE POSSIBLE PROPAGATION INTO THE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW. RAINFALL RATES OF 2.5" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD CHALLENGE THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF 3" WHERE CELLS TRAIN/BACKBUILD. A FEW SPOTS
COULD RECEIVE FLASH FLOODING IN THIS REGION.

ROTH

 

 

 

 

[DoctorMu]

It's remarkable CLL missed out today on beaucoup rain.  That darn Aggiedome.

 

 

 

A reinforcing trough is approaching monday evening

[DoctorMu]

A little less boring.  Wed-Fri could have some drought damping action.  Rainfall 0.5 in earlier this afternoon.

 

 

[Srain]

No real changes via the 12Z suite of guidance. Our Region appears to be covered by a general weakness/shear axis between two areas of high pressure to our E and another to our W. The RAP/NAM/4km WRF are suggesting a storm complex fires again early tomorrow across Central Texas and slowly sags S. The surge of tropical moisture from the wave should arrive tomorrow enhancing chances along the Coast for better rain chances for folks S of Houston. A fly in the ointment could come for  EPAC disturbance 95E near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and possibly some additional mid/upper level moisture being pulled across Texas as short wave energy embedded within the flow around the Western Ridge impacts most of the Region.

 

[jhamps10]

A little less boring.  Wed-Fri could have some drought damping action.  Rainfall 0.5 in earlier this afternoon.

 

 

Here's to hoping, We'll take any rain we can get right now..

[Srain]

Morning Update from meteorologist Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District):

 

Ingredients coming together to produce several days of scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms across the region.

 

Upper level ridges are located over northern MX and across the SE US this morning with a “break” or “weakness” in between the ridges over much of TX. This shear or trough axis is resulting in a thermodynamically favorable environment for thunderstorm development with low convective (trigger) temperatures in the low to mid 80’s and no capping aloft. Additionally, a stream of mid and high level moisture is pouring NNE from the eastern Pacific Ocean trapped in this weakness between the high pressure ridges. A surge of deep tropical moisture is quickly arriving on the TX coast this morning with GPS data showing PWS values pushing 2.0-2.1 inches from S TX northward into the coastal bend…which is slightly higher than models were forecasting. The high PWS alone with weak capping would support high rain chances, but couple that with weak short wave roaming across the state within the broad shear axis adds even more lift for widespread rainfall.

 

On the meso scale a weak boundary is noted both in radar images and data analysis on the theta E profiles extending from roughly Waco to north of Fort Polk, LA where recently thunderstorms have developed. Out west across SW TX into the rolling plains of west TX (Del Rio to east of Midland) an ESE moving MCS (thunderstorm complex) appears to be increasing in intensity some and supported by an eastward moving short wave. Locally, northward moving showers have crossed eastern Galveston Island this morning and moved inland around Matagorda Bay as a result of the increasing tropical air mass moving northward off the western Gulf.

 

Given all the above triggers (near northern boundary, approaching SW TX short wave, and inland moving seabreeze front) coupled with a few hours of daytime heating and expect numerous thunderstorms to result. Should start to see development near the coast/just inland in the next few hours with a rapid expansion of storms near area-wide as surface temperatures warm into the mid 80’s around 1000am-noon. Not sure if any of the meso models are going to get much correct over the next few days as they were too dry yesterday. For what it is worth the HRRR seems to like the US 59 corridor today and actually keeps our northern counties fairly dry.

 

Wednesday-Thursday:

Models are attempting to peg the area pretty good with high QPF during this window as deep tropical moisture will be in place (PWS 2.0-2.2 inches). Think we will see a transition to late night/early morning development near the coast/offshore as low level speed convergence is maximized in the midnight-300am range and this tends to be a favored development time in such tropical air masses. Storms will develop offshore and near the coast and spread inland during the morning hours possibly helped along by incoming weak short waves aloft which currently are not seen. Hard to pin point where and when the greatest activity will occur as the weather over the next 3-4 days will be nearly completely meso scale driven along outflow boundaries. TX TECH WRF shows a good bit of development Wednesday with some slow moving clustering of storms over our central counties along the US 59 and I-10 corridors.  

 

Rainfall:

Air mass will be certainly capable of excessive rainfall given a near saturated air column and high PW air mass. Storm motions will also becoming increasing slow with weakening steering winds aloft and much of their forward motions being driven by outflow boundaries. Concern will be with any cell training of overall storm organization (such as a slowing moving line of storms or slow moving MCS) which would be very capable of putting down several inches of rainfall in a short amount of time. 3-hr flash flood guidance ranges from 2.0-4.0 inches across much of the area. Slow moving organized storms will be capable of exceeding the flash flood guidance values across the area and generating run-off. Additional concern will be high hourly rainfall rates (1-3 inches) in the urban areas which will quickly result in street flooding.

 

Storm totals not including yesterday will likely average 1-3 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 6 inches by the end of the week. Could see a few isolated locations (as seen on Sunday SW of Fort Worth) pick up 8-10 inches. This air mass and pattern in place is very much capable of producing some really big rainfall totals in a short amount of time under slow moving strong thunderstorms.  

 

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/24/14 1612Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1600Z       WARREN
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF MCV
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MCV IS SEEN TRACKING SE AS MCS ACROSS
TX PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.  THIS FEATURE IS APPROACHING AN
AXIS OF MODEST LLVL CONFLUENCE WITH A SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED WNW TO ESE
ACROSS N-CENTRAL/CENTRAL TO ERN TX.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING INCREASING CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE PW MOISTURE
HAS POOLED TO 1.5-1.6".  ADDITIONAL HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ARE SLOWLY
SURGING NWD WITHIN SERLY 85H FLOW AND THIS TREND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HRS.  SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS SLOWLY DROPPING
SE AND THIS SHOULD AID IN ENHANCING VERTICAL ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

WATER VAPOR DOES SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT...THIS IS ALSO NOTED
IN 12Z RAOB FROM FWD WHICH WOULD SUPPORT COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TRENDING MORE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.  INITIAL
STORMS...PARTICULARLY AHEAD OF MCV FEATURE MAY BE SLOW-MOVING GIVEN
WEAK STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS COULD HELP SUPPORT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1610-2210Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF SNK TO JSO.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WOULD SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.0"/HR AT TIMES.
LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE ANY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE AND
GRAVITATE TOWARD THE S AND E WHERE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND INSTABILITY
IS LOCATED.  HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM INITIALLY SLOW-MOVING
CELLS/MERGERS COULD RESULT IN 2-3" AMOUNTS.
.

[1900hurricane]

You can still kinda see the MCV on SJT radar near Big Lake, TX. That'll be interesting to watch tonight and into tomorrow morning if it survives and refires.

 

[Quixotic1]

That MCV gif steve posted is something else.

[Srain]

That MCV gif steve posted is something else.

That MCV will likely regenerate this evening over the Hill Country and I suspect that a robust 'landcane' complex could develop as the high PW's surge N from the Gulf associated with the splitting tropical wave axis across the Western Gulf. The wave axis has been influenced by the trough over Mexico and has started to surge more N than W over the past 6 hours or so.

[aggiegeog]

Currently getting some good rain across the I-20 corridor of East Texas and areas to the south.

[aggiegeog]

The storm over Tyler has reached severe levels. Getting heavy rain and frequent lighting here. There is potential for large hail and strong winds.

[1900hurricane]

MCV is quite noticeable on mesoanalysis 700 and 500 mb levels. With flow aloft at only about 10 kts and a tongue of nearly 2" PW extending up the Rio Grande, I'm starting to think that someone on the Edwards is going to see a lot of rain tonight.

[Srain]

Update from Jeff L (Harris County Flood Control District):

Prolonged period of wet weather for the next several.days

Region has come under the influence of a break between the sub-tropical ridge to the west and to the east known as a “upper level weakness or shear axis” In addition to the upper level weakness, deep tropical moisture over the western Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico is moving into the TX coast with the air mass significantly moist and “tropical” over the region. Satellite derived moisture values over the Bay of Campeche suggest even greater moisture will be headed for the area late tonight-Thursday night. With a saturated air mass and no capping in the mid levels only modest heating (low to mid 80’s) is needed to result in thunderstorm development and this was clearly noted with the widespread development today.

 

Other factors which will become increasingly important over the next 48 hours include any slow moving low level outflow boundaries and convectively induced meso vort centers or small areas of low pressure that are formed from large thunderstorm complexes. Given such a moist air mass these “meso vorts” can begin to acquire tropical characteristics and behave very much like a decaying tropical storm with excessive rainfall focused near their centers of circulation during the overnight hours (nocturnal core rainfall). One such vort center is clearly noted by both radar and visible satellite images over SW TX (near Sonora, TX) currently as a result of this morning’s large thunderstorm complex. This feature is drifting eastward and may move into SE TX on Wednesday if it is able to maintain its identity. Latest run of the TX TECH WRF model does suggest some sort of low to mid level circulation over/near SE TX Wed into Thurs helping to enhance and organize thunderstorms, but it is hard to tell if the modeled feature is the current system over SW TX or another feature that develops from an outbreak of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

Thus far storms have been short lived and moving enough to keep excessive rainfall rates confined to a short period of time. 15-min rates this afternoon over SE/E Harris County were pushing 1.0-1.5 inches. This air mass is very capable of 1-3 inch per hour rainfall rates if not greater. Main concern over the next 48-72 hours will be if storms become organized or train along nearly stationary lines which in this type of environment can result in significant rainfall accumulations in a short period of time. Feel HPC rainfall (QPF) is just too low given what has happened over the past 24 hours and the air mass in place and forecast to be in place which does not give much support for rainfall amounts of the next 48-72 hours. Think a solid 1-3 inches is fairly likely with isolated amounts of 4-6 inches possible. These types of patterns can produce some really big rainfall totals in isolated areas…but it is impossible to predict where that may occur until it is underway. Meso scale influences such as low level boundaries and meso “lows” will play a big role in the heavy rainfall production over the next several day.

Main threat will be street flooding with high hourly rainfall rates and overtime as grounds saturated more run-off will be generated into area bayous and creeks with rises.  

 

 

[Quixotic1]

That MCV will likely regenerate this evening over the Hill Country and I suspect that a robust 'landcane' complex could develop as the high PW's surge N from the Gulf associated with the splitting tropical wave axis across the Western Gulf. The wave axis has been influenced by the trough over Mexico and has started to surge more N than W over the past 6 hours or so.

Is that warm core type returns showing up near Wichita Falls?

Lines of storms doing a bit of a cha cha from southern CO to easter OK. Southern Plains loop shows a very similar little waves undulating along that line.

[Srain]

Morning Update from Jeff. It is some what worrisome to see the very heavy storms across the Western Gulf that maintained overnight. That trend will need to be watched today for some sort of weak disturbance as the NCEP TC genesis probabilities were sniffing last weekend.

 

Jeff's Update:

 

Excessive rainfall possible over the next 48 hours.

 

A lot of activity already ongoing this morning suggesting this tropical air mass needs little recovery time between rounds of heavy rainfall. Band of strong thunderstorms producing rainfall rates of .50 to .75 of an inch in 15-min is moving northward over central and eastern Harris County extending eastward along I-10 to Beaumont. Short fused street flooding is likely under this band of excessive rainfall.

 

Upstream air mass over the Gulf of Mexico is extremely moist with PWS ranging from 2.0-2.2 inches or very close to +2 SD above normal for late June on the Corpus Christi sounding. Such a tropical air mass will require little to no heating to produce rounds of heavy to excessive rainfall as clearly seen this morning. Suspect a short break over the next few hours after the passage of this line of weather followed by rapid redevelopment along the coast by late morning spreading inland once again this afternoon.

 

Short term models in a little better agreement that another break will occur this evening prior to the development of widespread and potentially significant rainfall on Thursday morning. Models are attempting to peg the area from Matagorda Bay to Houston to Liberty for deep convective development overnight and into Thursday morning as the central TX trough axis drifts eastward helping to focus lift over SE TX late tonight. Additionally, speed convergence near the coast/just inland will also result in lift as strong offshore winds weaken near the coast. Will have to keep a very close eye on short term guidance today to see if they continue this trend of a slow moving swath of heavy to excessive rainfall tonight which would likely lead to flooding.

 

Tropical air mass is firmly in place over the area with upstream satellite derived PWS over the southern Gulf pushing 2.4 inches, so the supply of moisture moving northward into the area will continue and with the weakness in the upper ridge over the area see no reason why it is not going to rain. Using PWS forecasting technique for slow moving or stalled convection suggest rainfall amounts could be on the order of several inches in a few hours. Thus far storms have shown good gust potential keeping them moving along their forward outflow boundaries, but any slowing of storm motions or cell training is going to get local areas into problems quickly. This air mass is very much capable of 2-4 inches of rainfall in an hour under heavy convection. HPC guidance is finally starting to look more realistic to the situation and shows widespread areal rainfall amounts of 1.0-3.0 inches through Friday and this still may be on the lower side especially if any sustained banding or training establishes itself. Could see isolated totals upwards of 8 inches or greater on top of what has already fallen. Yesterday alone nearly 4.0 inches fell on the NW side of Matagorda Bay and 2.0-3.0 inches over SE Harris County.

 

1-hr flash flood guidance is on the order of 2.0-3.0 inches over much of the region with 6-hr guidance in the 4.0-5.0 inch range. This air mass will be capable of exceeding these values over the next 48 hours generating significant run-off and rises on area stream, creeks, bayous, and rivers. Urban flooding is also likely given the high rainfall rates which will easily overwhelm local drainage systems.

 

Area Rainfall Amounts (Today-Saturday morning)  

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/14 1154Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST 1145Z  GG
.
LOCATION...SW LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ISOLATED FF THREAT ALONG GULF BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1200-1600Z...MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...SATURATED LOW LEVELS WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF 2.0"
OVERLAY AN AREA THAT RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY TO LOWER
FFG VALUES INTO A RANGE THAT MAY BE EXCEEDED WITH TODAY'S ACTIVE GULF
BREEZE ALONG THE TX AND LA COAST.   THIS SUBTLY ENHANCED BY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROFING ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKER CONVECTION OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY AS WELL.    WITH THIS WEAK TROF AND PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN N TX... IS ALLOWING FOR INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW
AIDING MST FLUX TO ENVIRONMENT WITH 3000-4000 J/KG OF CAPES.

 

CURRENTLY ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA... DEEP
-65C COMPLEX HAS DEVELOPED OVER DEWITT AND KARNES COUNTY...
500-1000MB THICKNESS ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS AREA WITHIN THE CONVERGENT
TROF... INCREASING PROPAGATION VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH NEARLY CANCELS OUT ALLOWING FOR REPEAT CONVECTION TO BUILD
OVER THE SAME AREAS.  WITH HIGH PWS... RATES OF 1.5-2" ARE POSSIBLE.
FURTHER EXPANSION OF THIS SYTLE OF DEVELOPING IS PSBL INTO THE HILL
COUNTY AND FURTHER ENE UP THE GULF BREEZE.

 

FURTHER EAST ALONG THE TX/LA BOUNDARY... BETTER VEERED LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS BUILDING STRONGER SFC AND LOW LEVEL MST CONVERGENCE FOR
STRONGER/DEEPER/MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH NUMEROUS CELLS TO -70C
AND COOLER....THOUGH INSTABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER HERE... ONSHORE
MST FLUX AND SE PROPAGATION VECTORS COULD ALLOW FOR NEARLY STATIONARY
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THOUGH COLD POOL PROPAGATION
MAY NEGATE SOME OF THE TRAINING ALSO LIMITING FF THREAT TO ISOLATED.

[1900hurricane]

A bit of training has set up here in NE College Station. I've absolutely been dumped on the past hour.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/25/14 2209Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13: 2130ZVOGT MILLER
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION/ HVY RAIN
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEAKENS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF, NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TX/SRN OK. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A S/WV EMBEDDED IN THE
500 MB FLOW LIFTING NWD INTO SOUTHERN TX, LIKELY AIDING IN THE NEW
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. UPSTREAM, A 40 KT UL JET IS PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
TX, CREATING AN AREA OF UL DIFFLUENCE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX. THE BEST SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS IN SOUTHERN TX INTO THE TX GULF COASTAL AREAS. GFS
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY C-VECTORS OPPOSE THE CELL MOTION ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX.... LEADING TO SLOW-MOVING HVY RAINFALL ACROSS THAT AREA.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2210-0110Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...AREA OF PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
WHERE ONE FFW HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. BUT AS THE S/WV LIFTS NWD, AND THE
UL JET PUSHES E, EXPECT MORE CONVECTION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INVOF BANDERA
COUNTY (GOES-R EXPERIMENTAL CI ALGORITHM SHOWS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FORMING IN THIS AREA AS WELL).... SLOWEST MOVING HVY RAIN SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY NEAR THE TX GULF COAST AND PTS NW. GIVEN THE HIGH-MOISTURE SOURCE
IN PLACE, 1-2"/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION

 

[ticka1]

lots of rain today over 4 inches the last few days of rain

[Quixotic1]

Sick of seeing "area of subsidence" in the AFD.

[DoctorMu]

No rain today, but stayed below 90°...not quite the early July cold front of last year, but close

[DoctorMu]

Looks like HOU on Friday or Saturday will hit 95° for the first time this year, making it the 8th latest date to reach the 95°F mark

 

[Quixotic1]

The cold fronts in July gives me an ominous feeling for fall and winter.  Little worried about the blasted NW flow setting up again, keeping us cold and dry. 

 

Here's to a positive ENSO and the hope that a more active STJ will at least somewhat mitigate the constant flow of dry useless cP air. 

[Kory]

The cold fronts in July gives me an ominous feeling for fall and winter.  Little worried about the blasted NW flow setting up again, keeping us cold and dry. 

 

Here's to a positive ENSO and the hope that a more active STJ will at least somewhat mitigate the constant flow of dry useless cP air. 

I wouldn't really too much right now.  I think if the -EPO pattern is still persisting into October and November, then you can worry.  There is a strong correlation between the EPO pattern in November and how it persists through winter.  Example was last November, which had 500 mb blocking over Alaksa was a precursor to the constant ridging over the West Coast and troughing east of the Rockies.  

[Quixotic1]

I wouldn't really too much right now. I think if the -EPO pattern is still persisting into October and November, then you can worry. There is a strong correlation between the EPO pattern in November and how it persists through winter. Example was last November, which had 500 mb blocking over Alaksa was a precursor to the constant ridging over the West Coast and troughing east of the Rockies.

The PDO may be slightly negative but there's still a positive look to it. If that big pool of warm anomalies is still there come October, then a -EPO looks to be the call. Really hasn't changed much since last fall TBH. We will see.

[Kory]

I'd keep an eye on the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.  Looks like some MCS action will be setting up with northwest flow and a stalled frontal boundary across Oklahoma/North Texas progressing southeast.  

[Quixotic1]

AFD from FWD has been throwing around 2-3" amounts as if most of that forecast doesn't fall on areas that haven't seen that amount since April.

[DoctorMu]

About 1" of rain in CLL yesterday.  Enjoy the next few days of precip while we can!

 

 

 

 

 

GFS has the upper level ridge of death settling in after about a week...could go on until mid-August.  We'll see.

[Quixotic1]

The most beautiful word in weather is "training".......well right at this moment.

 

ETA:  Over 2" IMBY.  I heard my yard sigh.