Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 5

[Srain]

Update from Jeff Lindner (HCFCD):

 

Large complex of thunderstorms has progressed across the area this morning dropping 1-2 inches of rainfall. Fast storm motions thus far have precluded widespread flooding, but has resulted in additional rises on area watersheds that were still in recession from Monday’s rainfall.

 

The current complex of storms has stabilized the air mass some across SE TX with temperatures currently running in the low to mid 60’s. The upper level low is located near Wichita Falls, TX and moving eastward currently with disturbances rotating around the main low center. One such additional disturbance is currently moving through central TX. Radar from Austin/San Antonio is showing additional development ahead of this disturbance along and E of I-35 along a SW moving outflow boundary. Visible images show a good feed of moisture advecting north across S TX toward the San Antonio area and the air mass over SC TX has yet the be worked over by a complex of storms.

 

Model guidance is not in very good agreement on how to handle the next few rounds of heavy rainfall and are not handling the current activity overly well. Feel the air mass will need some time to recover this afternoon, but with additional storms approaching quickly from the west there may not be much sun.

 

TX TECH model attempts to show some banding features and even a hint at core rainfall with the parent upper level storm system over the next 48 hours which would not be a total surprise considering the system is sitting in a tropical environment and may begin to behave like a decaying tropical system.

 

Moisture levels are expected to remain high with both favorable Gulf inflow and a mid and high level tap from tropical system Amanda.

 

With all that said…expect at least another 2-3 rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall being the main threats. Timing of these rounds is difficult to determine as well as where the location of the heaviest rain may fall. Expect an additional 2-3 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 6 inches or greater over the next 48 hours. Given the now saturating ground conditions run-off into area rivers, creeks, and bayous will be increasing along with the potential to bring systems to flood stage.

 

Hydro:

 

Excessive rainfall on Monday has led to significant rises on area watersheds.

 

San Bernard River:

River is rising above flood stage currently at East Bernard and will continue to rise to near 19.0 ft Thursday morning. Flood wave moving downstream may result in flood stage threshold being reached at Boling also. The current RFC forecast takes the river at Boling well above flood stage and into moderate flooding early Wednesday, but this may be over-estimated and I would like to see at least one additional RFC run to get a good feeling on if the river is going to get that high. If it does, flooding near the river may impact some subdivisions.

 

South Mayde Creek:

Creek is overbanks at Greenhouse Rd. Creek began a secondary rise this morning, but has been at a flat crest since 800am. Water is over portions of Greenhouse Rd and flooding much of Cullen Park. A very slow fall is expected this afternoon

 

Cypress Creek:

Creek is 3-5 feet from bankfull from Katy Hockley downstream to I-45. An additional rise of a couple of feet is likely this afternoon as run-off reaches the main channel. Will be watching Cypress Creek closely

 

Additional rainfall this afternoon and over the next few days will slow recessions and possibly produce additional rises.

 

Residents should remain alert to creek, bayou, and river levels and be prepared to take action if needed.

 

24-Hr Rainfall Totals (Harris County):

[DoctorMu]

7.3 IMBY in May so far.  Could be a lifesaver this summer.

 

More to come during the remainder of the week on and off...

 

[Srain]

Latest storm complex brought an additional 3+ inches across NW Harris/SW Montgomery Counties. That brings my 48 hour rainfall total to near 10 inches. Growing concern that the U/L will transition to warm core later today into tomorrow and bring core rains across SE Texas/SW Louisiana. HGX considering extending Flash Flood Watches as additional storm develop with short wave energy rotating across the area later today. Creeks and bayous are above bank full again and a Flash Flood Warning has been issued.

[Ed Lizard]

I doubt Steve is normally up before 4 am, but those storms were loud.

 

5 inches in less than 3 days locally, maybe SETX won't be swept with wild fires this Summer.

[Srain]

The 00Z Euro and GFS ensemble members raise an eyebrow suggesting the next 48 to 72 hours could remain very wet across Eastern Texas/Western Louisiana.

 

[PelicanGuy]

A stormy day across southeastern Louisiana. Several flash flood warnings were issued and an EF1 tornado struck Garyville in St. James Parish around 5:30.

 

 

Ken Graham of the National Weather Service said the tornado had winds of about 105 mph and was approximately 150 yards wide.

 

Damage was done to the Marathon refinery and several power poles were blown into the road, closing one lane of  Airline Highway (US 61).

 

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 5 pm today for nearly all parishes in SE Louisiana. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7 pm Thursday.

 

 

Forecast discussion

 

THE PESKY MID/UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION AND
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OUT AS
ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE
EXACT MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT A GENERAL
SOUTH MOVEMENT NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER IS LIKELY.
MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES WILL ALL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
5 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...SWATCHS
OF HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT GIVEN WHAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

 

LONG TERM...

IT APPEARS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE/EXPAND SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS ON
SATURDAY AND MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE MID/UPPER LOW TO ELONGATE AND SHEAR OUT FROM EXTREME
EAST TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE MAY BE AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER SCATTERED COVERAGE IS AGAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO DOMINATE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
SHOULD LOWER COVERAGE OF RAIN TO ISOLATED BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

 

A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGHS SETTLE NEAR BOTH THE WEST
AND EAST COASTS. THIS WILL LEAVE THE PESKY MID/UPPER LOW IN PLACE
NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER ON FRIDAY...AND AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AS HIGH AS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES.
THE MODELS KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER THE QPF APPEARS LOWER. GIVEN THE PATTERN...I CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SO EVENTUALLY THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DEPENDENT ON HOW
SATURATED THE AREA BECOMES.

[wotan]

I live in the Katy area of far west Houston. I have had 11.96" so far this month, most of which has fallen this week. This is about one third of the total rain I have had since I installed my gauge on July first last year.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk

[Srain]

So far I have measured 8.58 inches of rain since 4:00 PM Monday afternoon. All the community retention ponds are very full.

 

Morning Update from Jeff:

 

First morning in 48 hours that has not exhibited heavy rainfall across the region…but break appears short lived.

 

Well defined upper level low over northern Louisiana with a trough axis extending SSW into the Gulf of Mexico has helped to focus the heavy and excessive rainfall east of the area in the last 12-18 hours. This upper level system has nearly stalled and is forecast to begin to move WSW over the next 24 hours toward eastern TX which allows the trough axis offshore to move northwest toward the coast. A current drier air mass in place will be replaced by a surge of moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and as increasing lift approaches from the NE expect additional showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Today looks the driest with the main dynamics to our east and moisture profiles down from the previous days. SE TX will lie in the SW flank of the upper level system with the focal point for storm development over E and NE TX with storm motions to the SSW…expect any activity this afternoon to remain isolated to scattered.

 

As the core of the system moves closer on Friday the air mass will heat in the morning becoming unstable. Models are not in great agreement on when and where any southwestward moving vort lobe will initiate another thunderstorm complex, but best guess at the moment is somewhere over NE/E TX and then track slowly toward the SSW or SW in the afternoon and evening hours. Looks like storm motions will be slowing also and favorable upstream moisture inflow from the SSW/SW of an untapped humid air mass looks to drive potential cell training into the evening hours over portions of the area.

 

Area falls into even more favorable position of the low by early Saturday with the core located either near or NW of SE TX suggesting favorable low level moisture convergence on the SE flank of the system near the coast or just inland. Could see some “core” rainfall near the center of the feature early Saturday morning but not confident in the placement of that this far out. Depending on how much development there is Friday afternoon, Saturday morning could end up being the greatest potential for additional excessive rainfall mainly across the east and southeast parts of the region.

 

Upper system begins to break down and shear apart leaving a height weakness between a building mid level ridge out of MX and sub-tropical ridging building from the east allowing for a final day of scattered thunderstorms on Sunday before ridging takes hold ending rain chances.

 

Additional rainfall amounts Friday-Sunday could average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts upwards of 4-6 inches possible.

 

Hydro:

San Bernard River: minor to moderate flooding is in progress along the entire river from southern Austin County to the Gulf of Mexico. River should crest and begin to fall over the next 24 hour.

 

West Fork San Jacinto River: River has crested overnight and falling within banks currently

 

Cypress Creek: creek has crested and is falling on the middle and lower portion of the channel, but upper portion of the channel is still rising due to run-off from Waller County.

 

Additional rainfall over the next 48 hours could alter recessions and result in additional rises.

[Srain]

The entire 12Z suite of global and shorter term meso guidance is in agreement that the upper low will retrograde to the W into tomorrow and Saturday. While it is still uncertain as to where and who may see the highest rainfall chances, it is clear that a building Ridge across the Eastern US will likely push this feature back closer to our Region and provide a chance of potentially heavy rainfall once again particularly across the Eastern half of Texas into Western/Central Louisiana. It is also noteworthy that if we do not reach a high of 90 on Saturday, a very long streak that dates back to May 1970 will be achieved where 90 degrees was not measured in Houston (officially) for the month of May.

 

The Day 1 and Day 2 QPF hss Updated and does suggest we could see a general 1-2 inches of additional rain with isolated higher amounts possible. As always, we cannot know or accurately forecast any mesoscale features beyond a few hours.

 

 

The 12Z global guidance as well as the ensembles suggest the upper Ridge expected to build over Mexico will be rather flat in the early June time frame and then shift a bit W leaving a weakness across the Central and Eastern portions of Texas. It is also note worthy that the global suite of guidance does indicate the potential for a broad area of low surface pressure to develop extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the Bay of Campeche. This broad monsoonal gyre may develop a weak tropical system next week that would likely fester for several day as the steering currents remain very weak and generally light Westerly's control the EPAC and extreme Western Atlantic Basin. There is some indication that the Bermuda Ridge may strengthen a bit and a general 'blocky pattern' remains in place across our Region.

[DoctorMu]

It reached 89°F three times in May in CLL, but no 90°F+ as well.  Incredible.

 

Fingers crossed for partly cloudy, moderate temps, with a chance of lemonade in June.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance continues to advertise the monsoonal gyre near the Gulf of Tehuantepec (EPAC) and the Bay Of Campeche (SW Gulf) may need to be watched a bit more closely. The NHC is suggesting that tropical development is likely in about 5 days near the Gulf of Tehuantepec and a potential secondary surface low developing the Bay of Campeche within the broad are of low pressure. Since the system appears to be weak and the placement of the upper Ridge across Mexico may not be as strong as expected, rain chance could increase across portions of Coastal Texas and Louisiana later next week.

[Ed Lizard]

^^  That'd be nice, if it happens.  Looking at SSTs in the NW Gulf and forecast PWs, it won't be a damaging wind system.  I do fear most of the rain will be East of the low, although yesterday's GFS had the next trough in the Westerlies capturing some of the better PW air for some liquid sunshine next weekend

[DoctorMu]

ULL has been sheared away but the Gulf/Campeche gyre is getting cranked up.  

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

 

GFS has most of the action S and E of us over the next 10 days.  We'll see.

[Ed Lizard]

Back to the boring and dry.  But the last week of May was fun.

[Srain]

Early next week could be wet as a short wave crosses Texas embedded in a NW flow aloft along the eastern flank of the Upper Ridge as it shifts W over the Baja. There is some indication that our Bay of Campeche area of disturbed weather may linger and additional moisture may get pulled N toward the NW/Central Gulf Coast. As long as that BoC/EPAC monsoonal trough keeps convection going, all eyes will be looking S. Many will remember 13 years ago a weak system spun up 80 miles S of Galveston and brought 5 days of torrential rainfall and widespread flooding as well as claimed 22 lives and is still known as the costliest Tropical Storm in US history. Allison caused over 5 Billion dollars in damage across our Region.

[DoctorMu]

It appears...ahem...a last min adjustment of the forecast may be in order.     

 

for the general area.  We'll see what holds together and look for proliferation of streamer showers.

 

 

Edit (5:30 pm): An Aggiedome massacre.  Hopefully, enough instability left to enhance tomorrow's chances...

 

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STREAMER/POPCORN TYPE SHRA & ISO TSRA UNDER LLVL JET SITUATED TO
OUR WEST IS FEEDING INTO REMNANTS FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION
ACROSS N TX - NOW SITUATED ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR. STARTING TO
GET SOME ISO DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR CWA AND WITH
CONTINUED HEATING AND ESE MOVEMENT OF BOUNDARY...WENT AHEAD AND
RAISED POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS N OF I-10 FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART. 

[DoctorMu]

s/w and squall line - incoming!

 

[Ed Lizard]

Our Aggie friends (ditto SHSU, where my wife is getting her Masters in bilingual special ed), online and at the satellite campus in The Woodlands) are in the current SLIGHT RISK, and not that terribly far from the hatched hail.  So, not quite 10% chance of 2 inch automotive sheet metal denting hail within 25 miles of campus, but probably not that much less than a 10% chance.

I shall hotlink the Central Texas radar so we don't miss a moment of Aggieland t-storm fun.

 

 

'Special Ed' was my Navy and college nickname for some reason.  I didn't share with the UT guys, people in Austin just picked up on how unique and interesting I was on their own.

[aggiegeog]

The area from Canton moving south to Palestine looks to be getting very heavy rain and maybe some hail before the main event later today. The radar is showing up to 3 inches in about an hour in southern Van Zant County. The storm is moving south while the line is heading east. The worst of it looks like it will stay west of me in Tyler, but the skies sure are dark and it looks like the rain is not far away.

[Srain]

From Nesdis:

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/12/14 2151Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2145Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS EVENING
AND INTO OVERNIGHT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IN THE WAKE
OF LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF, SOUTHERN STREAM HAS BECOME MOSTLY ZONAL WITH
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF DROPPING IN WNW FLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX AND
OK PANHANDLES.  EARLIER MCS HAS PUSHED SE AND WEAKENED WHILE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS WAS ROUGHLY ANALYZED ON LATEST VIS IMAGERY
AND SURFACE ANALYSIS TO EXTEND FROM JUST N OF HOU EXTENDING NW TO VIC
OF DYS.  GOES SOUNDER INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ALONG AND S OF REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS BECOMING HIGHLY UNSTABLE WITH BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
NOTED FROM THE VIC OF PSX EXTENDING NW TO VIC OF OUTFLOW AND SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION WHILE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS AND AREA GPS WERE
SHOWING RAPIDLY INCREASING MOISTURE ROUGHLY ALONG THIS AXIS WITH GREATEST
INCREASES NOTED NEAR ACT AND FWD TO NEAR 1.85".  HAVE NOTED INCREASING
CU ALONG AND JUST N OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH GOES R EXPERIMENTAL
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALGORITHM SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL INITIATION LIKELY
ON THE SHORT TERM NEAR GULF BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION NEAR BPT,
NEAR OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY INTERSECTION NEAR DYS AND ALSO NEAR JCT.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2115-0315Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BELIEVE LOCALIZED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHILE QUICKLY
BECOMING SUPERCELL IN NATURE.  BUNKERS TECHNIQUE OFF OF HODOGRAPHS OF 12Z
AREA SOUNDINGS, WOULD SUGGEST SOME RATHER INITIAL SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH ANY MERGERS THAT OCCUR WOULD FAVOR POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.  DEEP CLOUD BEARING WNW/NW FLOW WOULD TEND
TO FAVOR THAT ANY ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
FORWARD PROPAGATE SE TOWARDS PORTIONS OF SE TX.  INCREASING MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2.00"/HR IN THE
MOST INTENSE CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD, THE CONCERN WOULD THEN SHIFT FURTHER UPSTREAM
ON THE SW PORTIONS OF ANY COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT DO DEVELOP
PARTICULARLY IN THE VIC OF UPSTREAM THETA-E RIDGE AXIS OVER CNTRL TX THAT
COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME UPSTREAM REGENERATION WITH NOCTURNALLY
STRENGTHENING LLJ.  USING 12C AT 70H AS A ROUGH APPROXIMATION FOR CAP,
WOULD THINK THAT BEST ORGANIZED RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY
N OF A DYS TO LBX LINE WITH MORE ISOLATED SUPER CELLS S OF THERE AS
BEST UPSTREAM FORCING SHIFTS SE INTO PORTIONS OF SE TX.  ANY UPSTREAM
REGENERATION, IF IT DOES DEVELOP WOULD MOSTLY BE FAVORED ON SW PORTIONS
OF ANY ORGANIZED COLD POOLS THAT WOULD BE PRESUMED TO BE NOT MUCH FARTHER
N OF THE LBX TO DYS AXIS.  AGAIN CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH IN THE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO.

[DoctorMu]

El Niño's coming - hide your hearts girls.

 

Until then: dry and boring unless the tropics stir

 

 

[Ed Lizard]

Curious feature- will the MCV in Mexico become warm core and self sustaining.  I suspect the borderlands could use the rain.

[Ed Lizard]

DRT has received almost 5 inches from my pet MCV, that does seem to refire at night. making me think it is some kind of warm core system.

 

 

I have worked in the oil fields South of Sonora, TX, and I don't know if technically it is part of the Chihuahuan desert, but it is a desert for all practical purposes.  Should help Falcon and Amistad, I imagine, to help supply Texas and Mexican farmers with abundant water for the crops...

[1900hurricane]

Mesoscale Discussion from overnight on that MCV:

 

 

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0144
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR S TX...SW TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 200740Z - 201140Z

SUMMARY...A SMALL BUT INTENSE HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS POTENTIAL TO
PERSIST...OWING TO NEARLY STEADY STATE INFLOW...LIFT...AND
INSTABILITY. A GRADUAL MIGRATION TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THIS
EVENT INTO THE MORE POPULATED AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 90 INCLUDING
IN/AROUND DEL RIO TX.

DISCUSSION...EVEN THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WOULD HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME CAPTURING THE MCV WHICH MAY BE ROUGHLY 30 MILES
ACROSS. LIFT IS STRONG NEAR THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED BY FLEDGLING
RADAR ECHOES BLOSSOMING AND ACCELERATING INTO THE CORE...SOMETIMES
TAKING ON SPIRAL BANDED STRUCTURE. STILL...DESPITE ERRORS IN THE
MODEL PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION...THE NSSL WRF...WRF-ARW...AND HRRR
ALL FORECAST CONTINUED CONVECTION THROUGH 12Z AND PERHAPS BEYOND.
GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING WINDS IN THE LAYER OF MAXIMUM
LATENT HEAT RELEASE / LAYER OF THE MCV / WOULD EXPECT A SLOW
NORTHWEST DRIFT OF THE FEATURE. PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT OF FEEDER
CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE SE AND S FLANK WHERE 850 MB INFLOW
EMANATES FROM A REGION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE WHICH THE HRRR
FORECASTS TO MIGRATE NORTHWEST WITH THE SYSTEM.

RECENT OBS OF 5.25 INCH RAIN AT BRACKETVILLE MATCHES CLOSELY TO
THE DUAL POL RADAR ESTIMATES...WHICH SHOULD BE PERFORMING WELL
THIS CLOSE TO KDFX. RADAR SUGGESTS MORE THAN A FOOT OF RAIN HAS
LIKELY FALLEN OVER RURAL KINNEY/MAVERICK COUNTIES....WITH HOURLY
RATES OVER 3 INCHES. RATES MAY DECREASE WITHIN THE COOLER MORNING
HOURS...BUT ALL ELSE REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR 2-3 INCH/HR RATES
MOVING INTO MORE HEAVILY POPULATED AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS
COULD BECOME MORE SEVERE.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 28600070 28470028 28889988 29799999 30300099 30380230
30010307 29330339 28800292 28970197 28870127 28600070

[Srain]

From Nesdis regarding another potential warm core heavy rainfall event across SW Texas and the Rio Grande Valley...

 

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/20/14 1900Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:1845Z  JS
.
LOCATION...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...QUESTIONS SURROUNDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL PORTION
OF SW TX AND NEAR OR JUST OVER THE RIO GRANDE.
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VISIBLE ANIMATION SHOWS THE LOWER TO
POSSIBLY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER MCS OVERNIGHT
HAS DRIFTED MORE TO THE WEST AND APPEARS TO BE OVER TERRELL COUNTY. HAVE
SEEN THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS FROM LAST NIGHT'S MCS WARMING AND BEING SHEARED
OFF TO THE NE THOUGH THE FACT THAT AT LEAST MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL OCCURRING ESPECIALLY OVER VAL VERDE/CROCKETT
COUNTIES IS A TESTAMENT TO THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES WHICH CONTINUE TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS THIS SYSTEM DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS SIMILAR TO AN
INLAND TROPICAL SYSTEM. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BETTER LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE W AND S OF THE EARLIER
ACTIVITY WITH NEW CELL FORMATION TAKING PLACE PRIMARILY IN MEXICO THOUGH
SOME TOWERING CU/VERY SMALL NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER
S BREWSTER/TERRELL/W VAL VERDE COUNTIES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS STILL
IN PLACE IN THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING JUST UNDER
2.0" AND CONTINUING MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE S AND SE.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1900-0300Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND THE PRESENCE
OF AN ADDITIONAL PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY OVER MEXICO(LIKELY THE
REMNANTS OF EARLIER SMALL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX) CENTERED AROUND
27N103WWHICH IS MOVING TO THE NORTH, EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO BE OVER MEXICO WHERE
THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY TAKE PLACE THOUGH
THE LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY/INFLOW ALSO POINT TOWARD AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO OCCURRING OVER S
AND E BREWSTER/S PECOS/TERRELL/W VAL VERDE COUNTIES. THE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AND CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS TO
WHETHER ANOTHER ORGANIZED COMPLEX MATERIALIZES DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BELIEVE IF THAT OCCURS, IT WOULD BE ON THE S PERIPHERY
OF THE LOWER-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY MOVING SLOWLY
TO THE W CURRENTLY OVER TERRELL COUNTY. AT THIS TIME, THE THOUGHT IS
THAT THE AMOUNT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MEXICO MIGHT
INHIBIT ORGANIZATION FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. IN
ADDITION, THE SW SHEAR MAY BE A BIT GREATER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN THE PAST
DAY OR SO. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT WHERE THE LIGHTER  PROPAGATION VECTORS AND
850-300MB MEAN FLOW RESIDE, IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL IF ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY CAN FORM OVER BREWSTER/PECOS/TERRELL
COUNTIES. THE SIGNAL IS JUST NOT AS GOOD AS IT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

[1900hurricane]

Pretty big flood crest on the lower Pecos.

 

[Srain]

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO, TX
452 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DEL RIO...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.26 INCHES WAS SET AT DEL RIO TODAY. THIS
BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.80 INCHES SET IN 1946.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT DEL RIO BEFORE THE END OF THE
DAY. IF NEEDED, AN UPDATED RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED.
 

[Srain]

There is increasing very rich and deep tropical moisture streaming N over Mexico and tapping the monsoonal trough as well as Invest 95E which will likely be absorbed into the trough and spread across Texas. The 00Z Euro/Canadian were very wet across Texas while the 00Z GFS was drier. The 12Z GFS has trended much wetter than previous runs and water vapor imagery suggests the potential may increase. The fly in the ointment is an easterly wave crossing the Caribbean. MIMIC does indicate an increase in tropical moisture surging into the Western Gulf next week setting the stage for a potentially wet week into next weekend.

 

 

[Srain]

A very complicated and complex weather pattern is developing across our Region this week and could being bouts of very heavy rainfall. The upper pattern places Texas between two weather features in a stagnant summertime flow with a trough/shear axis across the Lone Star State. Typically such a pattern lends to rounds of daily heavy slow moving storms where 1 to 2 inch per hour rainfall rates are common and possibly higher if training storms develop. The area will be trapped between an Upper Ridge to our S and E and a Western trough with embedded short waves crossing Texas with a very tropical air mass planted across the Region. PW's are expected to increase to the 2+ inch mark and no capping. Convective temperatures should be in the low to mid 80's allowing storms to fire about anytime. To further complicate the forecast are mesoscale features that can not be determined beyond 4 to 6 hours as well as old outflow boundaries that could further enhance heavy rainfall.

Abundant deep/rich tropical moisture is streaming across Mexico into Texas in the mid to upper levels awaiting any 'trigger' such as small short wave energy traveling across Northern Mexico into the Southern Plains beneath a stalled out frontal boundary. The concern is that with a very weak N to NW flow aloft that any upper air disturbances will remain somewhat stationary across our Region and there is a potential that daily squall lines will drop S into Texas and focus multiple days of heavy rainfall. Another fly in the ointment is that a couple of upper air lows could take on warm core charactistics and bring heavy nocturnal rain/storm events which could lead to flooding issues.

The pattern is expected to continue into late week and possibly into next weekend. Another issue is a surge of tropical moisture currently in the Western Caribbean Sea will arrive around Tuesday night into Wednesday. The computer models are not much help as the range from very wet (Euro/Canadian/UKMet) to some what progressive and drier (GFS). Our upper pattern can be traced all the back to the Western Pacific near Japan so we will need to watch daily how all the various weather features upstream develop.. That said typically when we see such a long lasting trough pattern anchored across Texas in June, very heavy rainall events can happen and lead to multiple days of very unsettled weather.

[1900hurricane]

Gem of a discussion from FWD this morning:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
424 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE RADAR RETURNS LOOKED
MORE IMPRESSIVE THAN WHAT RAIN GAUGES ACROSS THE AREA RECORDED AS
RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE AREA HAD ONLY RECORDED A TRACE WITH A FEW SITES
PICKING UP A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. NO LIGHTNING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. THE
00Z FWD RAOB OBSERVED A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AROUND 1.8
INCHES...OR ABOUT ONE HALF INCH UP FROM 24 HRS AGO. TAKING A LOOK
AT A COMPARISON OF YESTERDAY EVENINGS RAOB AND FRIDAY EVENINGS
RAOB SHOWS THAT THE BULK OF THE INCREASE OF MOISTURE OCCURRED IN
THE MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERE. THIS MAKES SENSE AS YESTERDAYS WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTH FROM MEXICO TOWARDS TEXAS. THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN MEXICO SCOURS OUT ALL OF THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...BUT A DEEP SATURATED AIR MASS WAS OBSERVED
ABOVE THE 550 MB LEVEL. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
PLUME OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...STILL CONNECTED TO THE PACIFIC
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA. 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST
TEXAS...AND THIS TROUGH WAS LIKELY MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...THE 00Z FWD RAOB ALSO SHOWED A VERTICAL WIND PROFILE
CHARACTERIZED BY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THIS IS AN IMPORTANT CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RECENT
RAOBS BECAUSE IT INDICATES THAT BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LIFT
IS PRESENT OVER THE REGION...SO NO OBVIOUS LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
PRESENT. THIS MEANS THAT ONGOING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
ACTUALLY PICK UP A BIT THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA REDUCING STABILITY A BIT AND PROVIDING SOME
ADDITIONAL...ALBEIT WEAK...FORCING FOR ASCENT. DESPITE THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK THAT MANY
LOCATIONS WILL PICK UP AT LEAST ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL
BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING OUR BEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AND OVER EAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE
UPPER TROUGH...WEAK SUBSIDENCE WILL PROBABLY SHUT OFF RAINFALL AND
MAY EVEN THIN OUT SOME OF THE THICK MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THAT HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT OCCUR FAST ENOUGH TODAY TO
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE/HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SO LEFT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OFF TO OUR EAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE HIGH PLAINS
WHERE THE CONSENSUS OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE INITIATES A
SQUALL LINE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES IN THE 03 TO 06Z TIME FRAME. ONCE
ORGANIZED...THIS SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS SQUALL LINE
WEAKENING...BUT MAINTAINING A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF STRUCTURE TO
MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE. THE SQUALL LINE...OR SQUALL LINE REMNANTS...ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE MONDAY MORNING. MOST
MODELS LEAVE SOME SORT OF CONVECTIVE REMNANTS ORIENTED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY 18Z EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING
THAT THIS IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THE BEST CHANCES OF NEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS.

HAVE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW
MORNING...AND THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
THIS IN MIND. OF COURSE...THE ACTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
SQUALL LINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A BIG
IMPACT ON MONDAYS FORECAST. CHANGES WILL NEED TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST BASED ON WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS WITH THIS SQUALL LINE...AS
OPPOSED TO WHAT THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DOING WITH THIS
FEATURE. IN GENERAL A WEAKER SQUALL LINE WILL LEAD TO LOWER POPS
MONDAY MORNING AND HIGHER POP NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONGER SQUALL LINE MAY CLEAR OUT POPS COMPLETELY
FOR SOME AREAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOMEWHAT SMALL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT SHOWING
ONE OF THESE TROUGHS CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE REAL...OBSERVABLE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHAT DOES OUR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LOOK
LIKE AFTER MONDAYS SQUALL LINE AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ASSUMING OUTFLOW HAS KEPT NORTHERN AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER
THAN SOUTHERN ZONES...ANTICIPATE THAT AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVERNIGHT WOULD RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA. THIS LOW-LEVEL ENHANCED WIND CORRIDOR OR
JET WOULD THEN INTERACT WITH THE WEAK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO
ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN CWA
MONDAY NIGHT. THE BIGGER THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...THE STEEPER
THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL BE...ENHANCING LIFT FOR NEW
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HAVE THE BEST POPS LOCATED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT.

BY TUESDAY...THERE ARE SO MANY MESOSCALE POSSIBILITIES TO CONTEND
WITH THAT THEY MORE OR LESS BLEND INTO NOISE LEVEL FOR FORECAST
PURPOSES. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE
OF THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION WITH A MORE OR LESS UNCAPPED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL TYPE MOISTURE PROFILE IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...JUST WENT WITH BROAD BRUSHED 20 POPS FOR
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH 30 POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL TYPE
MOISTURE PROFILES USUALLY RESPOND TO DIURNAL HEATING WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. HAVE TEMPERATURES AT NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH
ADVERTISING A CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR THE LARGE SCALE FLOW REGIME
OVER THE REGION FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. IN GENERAL THERE ARE
STILL SOME MODELS THAT SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST AND
WEST...RESULTING IN A COL IN THE FLOW FIELD OVER THE CWA. THIS
WOULD ESSENTIALLY TRAP WHATEVER IS HERE...HOLDING IT MORE OR LESS
IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN
INDICATE THAT WE WILL HOLD ON TO A TROPICAL TYPE AIRMASS IN THIS
COL...RESULTING IN TUESDAY-LIKE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENTS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES... DISREGARDING MESOSCALE DETAILS FOR NOW.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS MID-WEEK...MORE OR LESS LAYING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND CLEARING THE COL ALOFT OFF TO THE EAST. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER AND WARMER FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK AND
BEYOND. AT THIS TIME...IT`S DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHICH SOLUTION IS
LIKELY TO VERIFY...SO HERE`S A FEW THINGS TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD:

1. THE ECMWF IS GENERALLY SLOWER WITH THE BIG WESTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...AND ACTUALLY STALLS A PIECE OF IT OUT OVER NEW MEXICO BY
FRIDAY AND HOLDS IT THERE OVER MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO IS THAT
THE ECMWF ORIGINATES THIS STALLED OUT UPPER TROUGH FROM NORTHERN
JAPAN THIS MORNING. THE GFS SEEMINGLY DOES NOT STALL OUT THIS
UPPER TROUGH BECAUSE IT DOES NOT RESOLVE THIS SHORTWAVE OVER
NORTHERN JAPAN THIS MORNING. LOOKING AT HEMISPHERIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS JUST TOO LARGE OF A SCALE TO PICK OUT SOMETHING SO
SMALL...SO I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS FEATURE EXISTS OR NOT. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH IT MOVING FORWARD IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO INDICATE THIS
IS IMPORTANT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

2. THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH ITS RUN TO RUN SOLUTIONS.
CONSISTENCY DOES NOT EQUAL ACCURACY...BUT PREVIOUS EXPERIENCE HAS
SHOWN THAT THE MORE CONSISTENT MODEL HAS A BETTER TRACK RECORD.
THIS DOES NOT ALWAYS WORK OUT OF COURSE...BUT ITS AT LEAST WORTH
NOTING AS THE ECMWF HAD A RIDGE WHERE IT CURRENTLY HAS A STALLED
OUT UPPER LOW YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME.

3. IF THE COL SETS UP...THAT IS THE ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN SOLUTION
VERIFIES...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR WARM-CORE VORTEX
AMPLIFICATION FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. IF YOU WANT TO SEE WHAT
WARM-CORE VORTEX AMPLIFICATION DOES DYNAMICALLY...JUST LOOK AT THE
21/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTION. IT SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE
GULF COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND ALLOWS THIS 24-36 HRS OF
QUASI-STATIONARY LATENT HEAT RELEASE RAMP UP A STRONG MID-LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS "LAND-O-CANE"
LOOKING FEATURE THEN MOVES NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY
DUMPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. THIS
PROBABLY WILL NOT HAPPEN...BUT HIGHLIGHTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING RAINFALLS IN UPPER LEVEL COL FLOW REGIMES WITH
A TROPICAL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS PROBABLY
WRONG...BUT MATHEMATICALLY/DYNAMICALLY IS SOUND AND REPRESENTS ONE
EXTREME END OF A WIDE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBILITIES.

AT ANY RATE...WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO THESE FEATURES IN
FUTURE FORECASTS AND MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLOODING EVENT. ASIDE FROM PROPERTY
CONSIDERATIONS...FLOODING MAY BE NEEDED TO REFILL LOCAL AREA
RESERVOIRS. WITHOUT RECEIVING ANY RAINFALL YESTERDAY...DFW AIRPORT
HAS NOW RECORDED ITS 4TH DRIEST START TO THE YEAR THIS YEAR. THE
DETAILS ARE INCLUDED IN A SHORT CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

CAVANAUGH